The Minnesota Wild let us down Monday night, blowing their lead with 35 seconds remaining before eventually losing in a shootout. That proved to be the difference between a winning night and a losing night with our best bets.
We'll look to get back on track with three plays for Tuesday night's big slate of games.
Red Wings (-120) @ Canadiens (+100)
The Canadiens have dropped three consecutive games, over which time they've been outscored 11-4 in aggregate. I don't see things getting much better for them Tuesday night against Detroit.
With seemingly half the roster on injured reserve, an already poor Canadiens lineup is paper-thin top to bottom. It's gotten to the point where Montreal's top six is littered with mid-tier prospects and journeymen forwards, such as Jesse Ylonen and Alex Belzile.
While that's the optimal path to take for a team in the basement, it's not an ideal way to get results.
That certainly shows in the numbers, as the Canadiens have controlled only 38% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five the past 10 games. They're getting caved in on a nightly basis.
For teams with poor underlying metrics, the path to victory generally comes from high-end finishing or goaltending. The Canadiens have neither.
They don't have the shooting talent to outperform their expected outputs, and Cayden Primeau is more likely to harm than help between the pipes. He owns a .876 save percentage through 20 NHL appearances and simply hasn't looked good at this level.
For all the Red Wings' faults, they have a lot of edges in this game. Detroit possesses more talent up front, it's more compact defensively, and Ville Husso - despite an up-and-down season - is the much better goaltender.
Look for the Red Wings to take two points in Montreal.
Bet: Red Wings (-120)
Sebastian Aho over 2.5 shots (-125)
Aho is quietly having a nice season shooting the puck. He's registered three shots or more in 41 of his 69 games, which equates to a 59% success rate.
Aho has been especially good at home, where he's gone over his total in 20 of the past 30 for a 67% hit rate.
There's every reason to believe the home cooking will continue Tuesday night against Ottawa.
The Senators have really struggled to limit shots of late, which makes sense given the absences of top defensemen Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun.
A lot of the volume has come from opposing centers. In fact, the Senators rank 25th in shots allowed per game to centers over the last 10. Aho should be the primary beneficiary.
Carter Verhaeghe over 3.5 shots (-130)
Death, taxes, and Verhaeghe at home. He's an absolute machine in his own building, where he's gone over his shot total in eight of the past 10 contests and 67% of his games for the season.
The volume continues to be mouthwatering from Verhaeghe on a nightly basis. He's averaged a whopping 8.2 shot attempts over his last 10 games overall, which is more than all but Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, and Mikko Rantanen. He's the No. 1 shooting threat on a Panthers team that piles up the shots every time out.
The Sabres give up plenty of attempts and tend to play in high-event games. That should only raise Verhaeghe's already high floor, and ceiling, in terms of generating shots.
It's also worth noting the Sabres rank in the bottom 10 in shots against versus left-wingers over the past 10.
Verhaeghe registered seven shots on nine attempts the last time these two teams met. He's well-positioned for another big night this time around.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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