For almost 22 months, Sean Couturier didn't play a regular-season game because of two back surgeries. On Friday, 70 games into his comeback season, the Flyers' captain was nominated for the Masterton Trophy.
Monthly Archives: April 2024
April 5 2024 – Frank Seravalli & Al Murdoch
Another playoff preview?? The Canucks close out their road trip in LA on Saturday, and a win makes it even more possible that the two sides face each other in the first round, so Matt and Blake look ahead to the possible lineup changes and how the Canucks might be able to break through the stodgy LA system. The guys also wonder aloud about the defence rotation and who will find themselves on the outside of the top 6 come playoff time.
Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli stops by and gives his thoughts on the neck and neck Norris trophy race, the less dramatic Coach of the year competition, and the muddy future of the Arizona Coyotes.
Plus, a special visit from the voice of the Canucks home games, PA announcer Al Murdoch! The big voice weighs in on the return to the playoffs and the excitement in the building, and does Al know if the skate jersey will be the choice for the post-season? Presented by Applewood Auto Group.
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Marner expected to return from ankle injury vs. Habs
Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner is expected to return to the lineup Saturday against the Montreal Canadiens, TSN's Mark Masters reports.
"Excited," Marner said. "Just want to get back, get back in the rhythm of things, and try and contribute to help our team win games."
Marner has been sidelined since March 7 with an ankle injury, missing 12 games.
The 2022-23 Selke Trophy finalist skated on the club's second line alongside captain John Tavares during Friday's practice, according to Masters. The Leafs notably had Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander on three different lines.
LW | C | RW |
---|---|---|
Tyler Bertuzzi | Auston Matthews | Max Domi |
Bobby McMann | John Tavares | Mitch Marner |
Matthew Knies | Pontus Holmberg | William Nylander |
Connor Dewar | David Kampf | Ryan Reaves |
Marner also rejoined the top power-play unit alongside Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, and Morgan Rielly.
Marner has 25 goals and 51 assists in 62 games this season. He ranks third on the team in points and leads all Leafs forwards in average time on ice (21:20).
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NHL betting guide: Does regular-season xG% correlate to playoff success?
Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.
What does it take to win the Stanley Cup?
The qualitative answers to such an all-encompassing question include toughness, determination, resilience, strength, skill, and a whole lot of luck.
Approaching the playoffs, we look for quantitative hints to spring's biggest question. Thinking about it logically, we want our team to do three things:
- Outplay opponents at even strength, drive play to wear down the opposition, get high-danger chances, and draw penalties.
- Score at a high rate when the best opportunities (even-strength high-danger chances, power plays) come about.
- Limit chances and expected goals from opponents' high-danger chances more often than an average netminder.
Before we get to this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs, let's look back at the last three years and see how the conference finalists faired during the regular season.
First up, a trusted method to measure play-driving: expected goals share (xG%) at even strength (ES):
YEAR | TEAM | ES xG% (Regular) | ES xG% (Playoffs) |
---|---|---|---|
2021 | Lightning | 52.0% (6th) | 50.5% (9th) |
Canadiens | 45.0% (12th) | 48.9% (10th) | |
Golden Knights | 52.4% (5th) | 55.5% (4th) | |
Islanders | 47.4% (10th) | 47.0% (11th) | |
2022 | Avalanche | 52.7% (9th) | 59.1% (2nd) |
Lightning | 52.0% (12th) | 51.5% (8th) | |
Rangers | 49.4% (19th) | 39.6% (15th) | |
Oilers | 53.3% (6th) | 51.6% (7th) | |
2023 | Golden Knights | 50.8% (16th) | 51.8% (7th) |
Panthers | 52.8% (9th) | 46.5% (15th) | |
Hurricanes | 58.6% (1st) | 53.7% (3rd) | |
Stars | 53.4% (6th) | 55.2% (1st) |
Is there a correlation to playoff success?
Interestingly, just five of the 12 teams to make a conference final and just one Stanley Cup finalist - the teams in bold in the table above - had a season where they finished in the top eight, a cohort that suggests they're in the top half of the 16 playoff teams.
While we'd prefer to back teams that have a better rate of creating scoring chances than not, there's no recent direct correlation from regular-season success in this metric. This is similar to the regular-season standings, where we've seen three division winners, four second-place finishers, two third-place teams, and three from the fourth/wild-card spot make a conference final.
2023-'24 Even-strength xG%
TEAM | 2023-'24 ES xG% |
---|---|
Oilers | 56.5% |
Panthers | 55.4% |
Hurricanes | 55.4% |
Stars | 54.9% |
Kings | 54.1% |
Predators | 52.7% |
Avalanche | 52.5% |
Canucks | 52.2% |
The top eight teams in xG% are all expected to be in the playoffs but will likely need to do more to make a run in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
On Monday, we'll see how successful playoff teams have recently stacked up in SNIPES, a metric we created that evaluates how good a team's top-end talent is at converting scoring opportunities.
The cheat sheet
The dirty little secret in the betting world is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.
Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.
You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:
- True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
- True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
- True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%
I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.
When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.
DATE | GAME | WIN PROB. (%) | PRICE TO BET |
---|---|---|---|
Apr. 5 | NYR@DET | 58.5/41.5 | NYR -135/DET +166 |
WSH@CAR | 19.0/81.0 | WSH +568/CAR -401 | |
PHI@BUF | 39.0/61.0 | PHI +186/BUF -150 | |
COL@EDM | 36.5/63.5 | COL +208/EDM -167 | |
SEA@ANA | 62.9/37.1 | SEA -163/ANA +203 | |
VGK@ARI | 62.6/37.4 | VGK -161/ARI +200 | |
Apr. 6 | TB@PIT | 43.5/56.5 | TB +153/PIT -125 |
FLA@BOS | 45.8/54.2 | FLA +139/BOS -114 | |
WPG@MIN | 44.4/55.6 | WPG +147/MIN -120 | |
DAL@CHI | 75.9/24.1 | DAL -299/CHI +398 | |
STL@SJS | 61.4/38.6 | STL -153/SJS +189 | |
TOR@MTL | 68.4/31.6 | TOR -206/MTL +262 | |
NJD@OTT | 53.8/46.2 | NJD -112/OTT +137 | |
PHI@CBJ | 45.6/54.4 | PHI +140/CBJ -115 | |
NSH@NYI | 47.8/52.2 | NSH +121/NYI +101 | |
VAN@LAK | 38.9/61.1 | VAN +186/LAK -151 | |
EDM@CGY | 57.9/42.1 | EDM -132/CGY +163 | |
Apr. 7 | BUF@DET | 52.3/47.7 | BUF +101/DET +121 |
MIN@CHI | 65.1/34.9 | MIN -178/CHI +223 | |
CBJ@CAR | 12.5/87.5 | CBJ +1076/CAR -640 | |
OTT@WSH | 44.3/55.7 | OTT +148/WSH -121 | |
ARI@SJS | 62.5/37.5 | ARI -160/SJS +199 | |
NSH@NJD | 40.7/59.3 | NSH +172/NJD -140 | |
MTL@NYR | 22.6/77.4 | MTL +437/NYR -323 | |
STL@ANA | 50.2/49.8 | STL +110/ANA +111 | |
DAL@COL | 43.4/56.7 | DAL +155/COL -126 |
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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Bednar: Drouin’s completely changed his image
Jonathan Drouin went to the Colorado Avalanche surrounded by significant question marks.
On the ice, he was coming off a season in which he scored just two goals in 58 games. He had failed to reach double-digit tallies since 2018-19. And he had a reputation as a poor defensive player.
Off the ice, he had dealt with anxiety and insomnia that caused him to miss an extended portion of the 2020-21 season.
But Drouin has put together one of his best campaigns, entering Friday with 17 goals and 34 assists in 73 games. He's three points away from establishing a new career high. That perseverance is part of the reason why Drouin was announced as Colorado's nominee for the Bill Masterton Trophy on Friday.
"He comes in here, and to me it's his attitude and really working at his game, adding tools to his toolbox, especially when it comes to being a well-rounded player on the checking side of it," Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said, per The Denver Post's Corey Masisak. "He's become a real trusted guy for us.
"The image that he had, he's been able to completely change that for me in a short period of time and do whatever it takes to be successful for a new coach, a new organization, new teammates. I think it is something that should be recognized."
The Avalanche were an obvious landing spot for Drouin in free agency because of his prior relationship with Nathan MacKinnon. The two players starred for the QMJHL's Halifax Mooseheads together before turning pro. Colorado drafted MacKinnon first overall in 2013, while Drouin went to the Tampa Bay Lightning two picks later.
"He's very dedicated. He brings it every day," MacKinnon said. "He has a great attitude, a great work ethic. He's always trying to get better and he loves the game. He's always trying to learn and loves talking about it. It's fun to be around guys like that. He definitely deserves that recognition, for sure."
With a cap hit of $825,000 this season, Drouin has been one of the league's best bargains. Excluding players on entry-level contracts, the 29-year-old leads all NHL skaters in cost per point, per CapFriendly. He's put himself in line for a notable pay raise this summer.
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Athletes can be banned for betting but can they face legal consequences?
The NBA's investigation into Jontay Porter for betting irregularities is the most high profile such case in North American sports in more than a decade, and it raises questions about the legal penalties athletes may face.
ESPN reported March 25 that Porter was being investigated by the league for a type of match manipulation sometimes referred to as spot-fixing. Two of Porter's performances - Jan. 26 and March 20 - triggered the probe. In both cases, Porter left the game early, resulting in his points, rebounds, and 3-pointers falling significantly under the prop bet over-under lines available to bettors.
Leagues and teams can ban or suspend athletes or other insiders who are found to have contravened betting policies. But legal punishments are a more complex issue.
Jeremy Luke, president and CEO of the Canadian Centre for Ethics in Sport, said his team is leading a charge to make match-fixing illegal and criminal. Currently, there are no federal laws in either Canada or the United States specifically criminalizing competitive manipulation in sports.
"Leagues themselves have policies in place to deal with issues like this," Luke said. "If someone does something that would violate that policy, the league would be investigating that particular issue. And these leagues have ways to be able to monitor betting lines and have any irregularities reported to them, and the ability to investigate these types of things. They ultimately have the ability to take action and from a sport perspective to prohibit individuals from participating in their sports."
Laying criminal charges in such cases wouldn't be straightforward because of the laws on the books in both countries.
"In this particular case with Porter, it would have to be proven that he intentionally influenced the outcome of the bets on him with the intent of benefiting from it," Ben Michael, an attorney at M&A Criminal Defense Attorneys in Austin, Texas, wrote in an email to theScore. "Though it may seem clear that this is what he did to most people, actually proving his actions and intent may not be so easy."
Financial and health records, in addition to personal communications, will be vital if evidence of any wrongdoing is to be proven.
The NBA has had no further comment on its investigation, and it's not clear whether any law-enforcement agencies in Canada or the U.S. are also looking into the matter. The Canadian Press reported March 26 that Toronto police were not looking into the matter.
Sportradar Integrity Services, a branch of the global data services company, reported in March that it found 1,329 suspicious matches in 11 sports around the world in 2023, which represented just 0.5% of competitions. Only 35 of those irregular findings happened in North America.
Betting irregularities are not just the domain of teams and leagues. ESPN reported that DraftKings said prop bets on Porter, who averages only 14 minutes a game, in the two games flagged were the biggest winning prop bets of the night.
Sports betting became legal under federal law in the U.S. in 2018 after a Supreme Court ruling struck down a 1992 law called the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act. Individual states have since enacted their own frameworks to regulate the industry. Betting is legal now in 38 states.
Canada's law was amended in 2021 to allow single-game betting. Only one province, Ontario, has opened a regulated market to betting companies. Other provinces have government-run betting operations within their lottery commissions.
The advent of legal sports betting in North America means integrity issues will crop up more often. "With that comes great risks of competition manipulation, both the outcome of competitions, but also component parts of competitions that people are wagering on," Luke said. "It's a very, very serious issue."
The increase in popularity of prop bets has underscored the risk of spot-fixing in particular. "It's not specific to the outcome of a competition and trying to fix the outcome," Luke added.
Jurisdictions worldwide grapple with how best to address match-fixing. In 2014, European nations adopted the Macolin Convention - currently the only rule of international law on the subject of match-fixing. Nine European nations have ratified it and 32 more have signed the treaty. Australia and Morocco are also signatories.
"What that convention does is that it requires governments to put in place regulatory approaches to protect the integrity of competitions and to make sure that any issues related to manipulation can be reported, that they can be identified, and that they can be investigated, so that the public can have confidence in our support system and we can also know that we're protecting the health and safety of our athletes," Luke said. "It speaks to how significant an issue it is, when there's an international convention signed on by over 30 different countries."
Other jurisdictions have developed homegrown solutions. Germany amended its criminal code in 2017 to address betting fraud in sports and the manipulation of professional sports competitions. This amendment was passed in response to a 2005 match-fixing scandal involving a German football referee.
In North America, there are no specific provisions in U.S. or Canadian federal law to directly address match-fixing or spot-fixing. In Canada, the "cheating at play" provision of Section 209 of the Criminal Code is perhaps the closest legislation on the books. It is worded to include, "Everyone who, with the intent to defraud any person, cheats while playing a game …" However, it's thought that professional sporting events would not fall under the legal definition of a "game" because they do not involve the required amount of chance.
"The challenge for us in Canada is that we are far behind what those other countries have put in place. While we recently legalized all that sports betting and people are becoming more and more familiar with the issue, the reality is other countries have done a lot to protect their athletes and it's incumbent on us to be doing the same right now," Luke said. Over the last five years, his organization has held two symposiums on match-fixing, and has openly called on the Canadian government to adopt the Macolin Convention.
In the U.S., the federal Sports Bribery Act makes it a felony to bribe anyone involved in a sporting event to intentionally influence the outcome. But there is no provision for cases where trainers, referees, coaches, or athletes may be influencing games without payment from others.
In one of the few American precedents, former NBA referee Tim Donaghy was sentenced to 15 months in prison for his role in a gambling scandal. He pleaded guilty to wire fraud and transmitting wagering information but wasn't charged for betting on games or affecting outcomes. If an athlete was charged with an offense related to match-fixing or spot-fixing, prosecutors would likely have to prove the more general fraud charge.
Criminal fraud may not be the only legal trouble awaiting an athlete. Chicago-area attorney Jonathan Rosenfeld said an athlete may face disciplinary action from regulators in the form of a fine. "Sports betting regulations, established by governmental authorities or regulatory bodies, often prohibit actions that compromise the fairness of betting outcomes," Rosenfeld wrote in an email.
An athlete also could face civil liabilities. "Affected parties, such as betting agencies or sponsors, may pursue legal action to recover damages resulting from the misconduct," Rosenfeld said. This is all in addition to league sanctions and contract termination, which are likely if the allegations are proven.
The NFL and NHL have taken such actions for other infractions of their codes of conduct. Three NFL players last season were suspended for six games for betting on other sports inside their team facilities. Nine others have been handed minimum one-year suspensions for betting on NFL games since 2019. Several of those players had their contracts terminated by their teams.
Shane Pinto of the Ottawa Senators was suspended for half the current NHL season for violating the league's gambling policy. It was found he didn't bet on NHL games, although no further details were provided.
Luke believes that beyond criminalizing match-fixing, the best solution is for all sports to adopt a system similar to what the World Anti-Doping Association uses to penalize athletes who use banned substances.
"I'd like to see a sport system where we treat competition manipulation at the same level and with the same severity that we do doping issues, where we have a global regulator, we have a very sophisticated set of rules, we have organizations that have been set up specifically with a mandate to deal with those things and to investigate them," Luke said.
"I think we will see more and more cases like this. And we need the systems in place to be able to protect the integrity of our sports and health for athletes."
Jolene Latimer is a feature writer at theScore.
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Stars promote Bourque from AHL
There's a new Mavrik in Dallas, and he doesn't play basketball.
The Dallas Stars recalled top prospect Mavrik Bourque from the AHL's Texas Stars on Friday, the team announced.
The 22-year-old has produced a league-leading 72 points in 66 games with Texas this season. He's yet to make his NHL debut, but could get a chance Saturday against the Chicago Blackhawks.
Dallas selected Bourque 30th overall in the 2020 NHL Draft.
Bourque is the second promising AHL standout to earn a call-up from the Stars this season. Fellow top prospect Logan Stankoven has tallied 13 points in 18 games with the big club.
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