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And then there was one ... game Thursday night.

The Maple Leafs surprised many and kept "Be-Leaf" alive in Boston in Game 5 with an overtime victory. Now they have to do what they haven't done in a while: win a home playoff game.

Game 6: Bruins (-110) @ Maple Leafs (-110)

If you're confused about what to expect for Game 6, join the club.

Luckily, with no shortage of intrigue, if you don't want to flip the coin on betting a game that's seen its odds hover around a true pick'em, this matchup should keep even the most casual observer engaged. Fluctuating moneyline prices, goalie changes, star unavailability, and four of five road winners have filled this series.

With all those elements thrown into the metaphorical pot, let's look at what's gone into the betting market's closing line for the home team in each game:

Everything mostly made sense in Games 1 and 2. After the Bruins' opening win, they got more credit ahead of the rematch. But that was tempered somewhat by a change from Jeremy Swayman to Linus Ullmark, as Boston kept to its goalie rotation. The Leafs rewarded those seeing the value in backing them against Ullmark as they tied the series 1-1.

A location shift from Boston to Toronto sent the Leafs' implied win probability (IWP) in the market from 44.4% to win Game 1 to 52.4% to win Game 3. During the regular season, an average consideration for home-ice advantage is 3.5% from neutral or 7% for home-to-road. Going to 8% for home ice wouldn't be a stretch in the playoffs.

What happened before Game 4 to send the Leafs from -110 as the opener to -130 as the closing moneyline?

A move from -110 to -130 suggests a 4% increase in IWP with William Nylander in the lineup. Readers of our regular-season betting guide will note that we omitted Nylander from our annual list of "the 4% Club" - the players who mean the most to the betting market. This is likely because Nylander played all 82 games in the last two regular seasons, so we haven't quantified his absence. Of course, the Leafs lost Game 4 somewhat embarrassingly, so 4% might be an overadjustment.

The scene shifted back to Boston for Tuesday's contest. The Bruins went from -135 (57.4% IWP) in Game 1 to -170 (63% IWP) in Game 5. What made the market think it was 5.6% more likely to win?

For starters, the sight of the Leafs' stars bickering on the bench while going down 3-1 in the series and a switch to backup goaltender Joseph Woll wiped out the positive vibes from Nylander's return. But more importantly:

Auston Matthews taking a morning skate sent the line down to -140, only to have it shoot back to -170 when that didn't appear to go well. That's a 5% shift in line with our midseason player value assessment.

Of course, the Leafs won Game 5 without their star sniper, but the underlying metrics aren't ideal. Boston had 13 even-strength high-danger chances to Toronto's five. Swayman (0.99 GSA/x) was good, but Woll (1.65 GSAx) was better. The former shouldn't result in a Bruins victory more often than not, and the latter seems hard to replicate.

What do -110/-110 odds mean for Game 6?

For the Leafs, it's the same price they could be bet at after a win in Boston in Game 2, but there's added uncertainty around Matthews' availability. If Matthews means 5% to Toronto (as the market suggested last game), the Leafs -130 (56.5% IWP) moneyline before Game 4 should be closer to -105 (51.5%) without him.

Maple Leafs -110 suggests Matthews won't suit up Thursday, so backing Toronto is viable for legitimate reasons: If he plays, you're holding a ticket at a valuable price. If he doesn't, the value is still near fair. There's also an illegitimate reason: After six straight playoff losses at Scotiabank Arena, the Leafs are due for a win at home.

If that's too much to fathom, Bruins -110 is a viable price to back Boston without Matthews. But if you wait and he's ruled in, the Bruins' odds will become more inviting, pricing them as an underdog with no guarantee Matthews can make the impact he usually does.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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Two more teams were shown the door Tuesday. The Avalanche are the first Western Conference club to advance, and our first second-round series is set, with the Hurricanes taking on the Rangers. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs and Predators assured the hockey world there won't be a dark night on the NHL schedule this week.

Wednesday features the league's best chance for a seven-game series. The home team is still looking for its first victory in the Golden Knights-Stars matchup, while a Stanley Cup contender seems ready to join the list of squads for Round 2.

Game 5: Golden Knights (+135) @ Stars (-155)

The most fascinating series of the first round can be broken down as follows:

• Game 1: Jake Oettinger (minus-2.2 goals saved above expected) was terrible in an otherwise close game. Stars lose 4-3.
• Game 3: Stars dominate even strength (ES), 23-4 high-danger chances (HDC). The Stars win in overtime 3-2.

Games 2 and 4 were nearly identical to each other.

The last column is the difference-maker. Vegas scored on two high-danger chances in Game 2, but Dallas didn't and lost a contest that was tied late in the second period. However, the Stars converted once in Game 4 and won a matchup also tied late in the second period.

Games 2 and 4 were more competitive, but Dallas drove the play at a 65% rate across those matchups. That's particularly notable since two of the regular season's least penalized teams are rarely putting each other on the power play in this series.

If you equate play-driving percentage to a moneyline, the Stars' 65% rate would be just shy of -200. While we'll never see Game 1's price of -130 again, -155 is still a valuable bet on Dallas snapping the road team's streak.

Best bet: Stars moneyline (-155)

Game 5: Kings (+165) @ Oilers (-195)

Who's to blame for Game 4's rare under in a Kings-Oilers playoff matchup?

That's a question worth asking after a streak of three straight overs to start the series was snapped with Sunday's 1-0 Oilers win. It's especially worth considering since Edmonton and L.A. have combined for six-plus goals in 10 of the last 13 playoff games between them.

Strangely, given that the Kings were shut out, the blame rests on the Oilers for a low-scoring Game 4. Edmonton mustered just four even-strength high-danger chances. And while the team's lone goal was on the power play, it drew just one opportunity on the man advantage.

Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner was also at fault. With 2.6 GSAx, Skinner backstopped Edmonton in a game in which Los Angeles should win 76% of the time. It was a well-timed outlier performance by Skinner, given that he posted a minus-2.15 GSAx over the first three contests. What version of him should we expect in Game 5?

David Rittich was an improvement from Cam Talbot (minus-3.08 GSAx in the series) for the Kings but was still replacement-level in Game 4 (minus-0.06). Going forward, we should expect average goaltending for both sides.

If the Oilers get back to their customary offensive production, more penalties will get called than the two in Game 4, and the Kings should finally score their first power-play goal in the series. This matchup should return to its offensive ways, especially if Edmonton, as expected, has a lead late and the Kings are compelled to pull the goalie earlier than usual.

Best bet: Over 6.5 (+105)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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During each round of the playoffs, we eventually reach the "housekeeping" portion of the program. Since betting isn't done in a vacuum, we should acknowledge the positions we've previously created in each series to maintain responsible betting practices.

In our Eastern Conference series preview, we played the Hurricanes to beat the Islanders in -1.5 games. With that bet in tow - and two chances for it to cash with series wins of either 4-1 or 4-2 - why would we add a risky -250 moneyline price on the Hurricanes, or bet against ourselves with the Isles?

As for the Western Conference, it certainly wasn't smooth. Then again, we didn't know the Canucks would need three different goalies to get the 3-1 lead we figured they might be good enough to have before Game 5 in Vancouver. We don't have two chances to win a bet here, like with the Canes, but the Canucks are priced at -120 to win a bet we have at +275 odds, plus an in-series bet made at 1-1. It's hard to complain about holding those tickets, regardless of the result.

That leaves two other Tuesday matchups, and we'll apply similar bankroll management logic while working through the handicap for a pair of Game 5s.

Game 5: Maple Leafs (+140) @ Bruins (-165)

We had faith in the Maple Leafs, thinking they could win this series, and if they did, it likely wouldn't happen in Boston in Game 7, so why not take Toronto -1.5 games at a better payout? If you told me Toronto would have the even-strength advantage through four games - 37-26 in high-danger chances and 8.36-7.81 in expected goals - I'd assume the Leafs were at least knotted up at 2-2.

Those numbers - and previous shorter moneylines (+125 and +135) in Boston - suggest there's value on Toronto here. However, that implies full health for Toronto's star players, a willingness to battle, and some strategic or mental edge.

The truth? Without an already sunk cost in the series market, there's no reason to keep be-leaf-in'. The Bruins' moneyline of -165 suggests a 62.3% chance Boston puts Toronto out of its misery. This number seems low based on how the wheels have come off the Maple Leafs, and is definitely low if Auston Matthews can't participate at 100%.

The Bruins haven't been lucky - an 11.5% high-danger chance conversion rate is below the league average. Boston's special-teams advantage isn't likely to be magically flipped either. What should be another turbulent offseason in Toronto starts Wednesday.

Best bet: Bruins moneyline (-165)

Game 5: Avalanche (-125) @ Jets (+105)

While they haven't officially crashed and burned, even the most optimistic Jets bettor can see the writing on the wall. Outside of an atrocious Game 1 from Alexandar Georgiev that gifted Winnipeg a win, it's been a literal avalanche since.

If you ignore the Avalanche's special-teams advantage, they've still driven 59% of even-strength play. Giving Winnipeg a 3.5% bump for home ice would get us to the 55.6% implied win probability the Avs' -125 moneyline suggests. Then apply Colorado's 40% power-play efficiency and a goaltending matchup closer than we ever thought possible, and you're more likely to find value in betting this series to end.

Best bet: Avalanche moneyline (-125)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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Staying patient is the hardest thing to do when betting the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Monday night's matchups drill home that point.

Game 5: Lightning (+155) @ Panthers (-185)

After closing at -105 on the moneyline in Game 3, the Lightning were +115 as the puck dropped in Game 4, a price across our threshold of +104 that we considered valuable before the series. That's a 5% shift in implied win probability after they lost a game that was 1.46-1.44 in even-strength expected goals.

Trying to predict which goaltender will come up big isn't easy. We were concerned about Andrei Vasilevskiy after a poor Game 3, and he didn't play particularly well in Game 4, registering a -0.58 GSAx. However, Sergei Bobrovsky was suddenly bad, going from 1.85 GSAx through three games to -2.03 on Saturday.

With our buy price on Tampa being +146, we took +160 with the Lightning for Game 2 in Sunrise - an overtime loss - so there's no reason not to try the underdogs again at +155. Bobrovsky and the Panthers will likely bring back their best effort, but at +155, we play the valuable side.

Best bet: Lightning moneyline (+155)

Game 4: Stars (-115) @ Golden Knights (-105)

Even in a loss, the Golden Knights continue to baffle. A 4.62-1.3 differential in even-strength expected goals and 23-4 disparity in high-danger chances (HDC) surpasses last week's Islanders-Hurricanes Game 2 as the most lopsided contest of the postseason. But the Islanders were resorting to a defensive shell against the better team, protecting a lead on the road. What's the Golden Knights' excuse for a first period in which they allowed 11 HDC?

The most vexing part is that the Stars needed overtime to get their first win of the series after a shorthanded goal tied the game and Logan Thompson made 43 saves.

Through three games, the Stars have 46 HDC at even strength and the Knights have 19. Who are we supposed to think is the better team?

Of course, you're allowed to have a good goaltender. But Thompson's 4.54 GSAx to Jake Oettinger's minus-1.53 infers that the goal differential in this series should be six goals further in favor of Dallas. Can Thompson keep this up?

If Thompson was a star with a track record of stealing games, that would be one thing. But he came into his first Stanley Cup Playoffs with 96 career starts and a 2.67 goals against average and .912 save percentage.

Betting against the Golden Knights is a miserable experience, but there's no reasonable case for backing a team that mustered one even-strength HDC in 36 minutes across the third period and overtime.

Best bet: Stars moneyline (-115)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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If you've been burning the midnight oil this week, it may feel like we're far more than six days into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but some teams have only played two games. With a loaded schedule this weekend - a dozen games - we're looking at what individual game and in-series bets may be worth making.

Western Conference

Games 3, 4: Canucks (-105) @ Predators (-115)
(Friday, Sunday)

It took NHL insiders almost 48 hours to uncover Thatcher Demko's injury, and many bets for Game 2 were already placed. While Rick Tocchet gave the Predators credit for "wanting it more," the Canucks dominated play with a ridiculous 72.8% expected goals share at even strength, which included several missed wide-open nets. Casey DeSmith was serviceable but goals two and three likely wouldn't have been scored on Demko, as his size would have made a difference.

Rather than backing the Canucks in Game 3 - their first action in a hostile environment - we're taking a wider purview, eyeing Vancouver to win the series at -105. A split over the weekend in Music City would make the Canucks a big favorite with three games to go and buys time for a chance that Demko returns.

Games 3, 4: Jets (+145) @ Avalanche (-170)
(Friday, Sunday)

We hypothesized before Game 2 that it was more likely the Jets would get better play from Connor Hellebuyck and tighten the big even-strength advantage the Avalanche had in Game 1 instead of Alexandar Georgiev having a good game.

The unpredictability of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is perfectly exemplified by Hellebuyck posting a Vezina-caliber season in between a 1-5 playoff record and 4.34 GAA the last two postseasons. Meanwhile, Georgiev bounced back strong. Go figure.

If you're holding a ticket on the Jets to win the series, there's no reason to take a chance with the underdog until Hellebuyck shows he's capable, since the expected goals differential has been 8.04-3.73 in favor of Colorado. Instead, standing pat and hoping for a split is the prudent move.

Games 3, 4: Oilers (-140) @ Kings (+120)
(Friday, Sunday)

We found one of the rare first-round underdogs in Game 2. The Kings' overtime win was proof they could put up a fight against the Oilers (in part because neither goaltender can be reasonably relied upon to be a positive difference-maker). With the series back in L.A., and the Kings getting the benefit of the last change - the option to match their best defenders with Connor McDavid - I expect the home underdogs to win one of two. Bet the Kings' moneyline in Game 3, and if they lose, try it again in Game 4 (barring a key injury).

Game 3: Stars (-105) @ Golden Knights (-115)
(Saturday)

The Stars were priced at -140 (58.3%) to win Game 1, and their even-strength metrics suggested they should have won 60% of the time. In Game 2, Dallas' -160 closing line suggested it was 61.5% likely to win, and its even-strength metrics suggested it would win 61% of the time. Dallas won neither.

If you hold a Dallas position, you're probably looking at a sunk cost, since the Golden Knights have shown the same prowess in close games that helped them win the Cup last year. Otherwise, how can you not simply back inevitable Vegas as the short home favorite?

Eastern Conference

Games 3, 4: Rangers (-175) @ Capitals (+150)
(Friday, Sunday)

A bet on the Capitals (+240) deserved better in Game 2 as Washington had nine even-strength high-danger chances to New York's three. A Rangers' shorthanded goal was the difference.

Unlike the Kings, we're taking only one shot backing the Capitals to make this series interesting, by taking them on the Game 3 moneyline. If they go down 3-0 in the series, I won't be pressing my luck a second time.

Game 4: Hurricanes (-180) @ Islanders (+155)
(Saturday)

The Islanders topped the Hurricanes 2.38-1.3 in even-strength expected goals and nearly doubled their high-danger chances in Game 3 (10-6). However, none of Carolina's three goals came on a high-danger chance. Starting Ilya Sorokin backfired for New York; he was pulled after the final Canes marker in what ended up a 3-2 Carolina win, and what's now a 3-0 series.

Historically, teams down 3-0 with Game 4 at home win it roughly 38% of the time. That might seem low, but translating those chances to a moneyline equates to +163. It also includes a subset of teams in an era of less parity that were swept with little resistance.

Since the salary cap was instituted in 2005 - a move partially designed to increase parity - teams down 3-0 are 31-34 in Game 4 regardless of location. That 47.7% winning percentage translates to +110 on the moneyline.

The Isles' run-of-play advantage in Game 3 and their return to Semyon Varlamov makes them interesting at +155, given they played well. Still, the market is drifting away, based on the often false assumption that a team down 3-0 has lost the will to compete.

Game 4: Panthers (-125) @ Lightning (+105)
(Saturday)

Blame an offside that negated a goal for Tampa Bay, or the coin-flip nature of a playoff game with a 1.46-1.44 expected goals differential, but the Lightning find themselves in the same position as the Isles. Like that series, Game 4 history applies here too, but Andrei Vasilevskiy regressed badly in a 5-3 loss, so Tampa doesn't have the same card to play between the pipes, and you're not getting a valuable price to back the underdog Lightning.

Game 4: Bruins (-105) @ Maple Leafs (-115)
(Saturday)

We'll see how the possible return of William Nylander affects the line. However, like Game 2, the Bruins will either do something they're unaccustomed to by starting Jeremy Swayman back-to-back, or return Linus Ullmark between the pipes. Let's back the Maple Leafs before the line moves toward them with any good roster news.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

As the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue, game moneylines theoretically get tighter. With more information about how teams match up, the quantitative value dries up. However, since there's more than one way to make a bet, we'll put an old cliche to the test Thursday and hope that desperation from a pair of teams at home down 2-0 is enough to get a win.

Game 3: Panthers (-105) @ Lightning (-115)

As is often the case with overtime results, this series may have been swung by Carter Verhaeghe's fifth career sudden-death playoff goal. Of course, the writing might have been on the wall after Sergei Bobrovsky's effort on what will be hard to beat for save of the playoffs:

If Matt Dumba converts there to give the Lightning a 3-2 lead, maybe we never see overtime, and maybe this series is tied. It's a big assumption, since the trailing Panthers would have put the pedal down even further - something they were already doing to the tune of an 18-8 high-danger chance disparity in the second period.

Florida's significant edge in five-on-five metrics came in the early stages of Game 1 and the second period of Game 2. While that's better than the lack of dominant stretches for Tampa, who's to say the Lightning can't have similar surges in front of their home crowd? That's what a bet here is hoping for.

One silver lining in the Lightning's empty trip across Florida was the play of Andrei Vasilevskiy, who's saved two cumulative goals against each game. Getting its No. 1 goaltender back on form was obviously key for Tampa before the series and bodes well for Game 3.

Before this series started, our target moneyline price to back the Lightning at home was essentially anything with a "+" in front of it. While -115 implies something of desperation tax, in a do-or-almost-die situation, the Lightning are the only side worth backing.

Best bet: Lightning moneyline (-115)

Game 3: Hurricanes (-165) @ Islanders (+140)

Carolina almost pulled a "Hurricane" in Game 2. The oft-heavily favored Canes are somewhat infamous for losing games they dominate everywhere but the scoreboard, something that nearly happened when they trailed the Islanders 3-0, in a game they had 110 shot attempts to New York's 28.

Carolina surged back to win in regulation, and the metrics didn't flatter the Isles. The Hurricanes' trailing game state - where the Isles assumed clinging to a lead was their best hope - had much to do with that.

Back home in a new building, in front of a fanbase known for out-and-out mayhem, the Isles should be the aggressors again, and if they get an early lead, they'll have inspiration to stay on the front foot. Especially since going down 3-0 in the series to a much better team isn't an option.

With goaltender Semyon Varlamov still reeling from the Game 2 onslaught, New York will turn to Ilya Sorokin for Game 3. Sorokin was the Islanders' nominal starter before a late-season Varlamov push. Sorokin's splits were much better at home this season, with a 15-7 regulation record compared to 10-12 on the road. He allows almost half a goal less at UBS Arena.

The market's well aware that if the Isles get a game in this series, this will be it. They're priced a little shorter than we'd like, but this should be the Islanders' best 60 minutes of the season and we'll bet it that way.

Best bet: Islanders moneyline (+140)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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Wednesday's NHL playoff slate has a pair of intriguing Game 2 matchups, plus the Bruins and Maple Leafs have the honor of being the first series to shift locations, which tightens the game line even further.

Game 3: Bruins (-105) @ Maple Leafs (-115)

Uncomfortable bets often make for good ones, and backing and winning with the Maple Leafs in Boston on Monday was one you had to grit your teeth for. However, the even-strength metrics suggested that - with more evenly matched special teams and no outlier goaltending performance - the final score might be considerably different the second time around.

Sure enough, we saw a textbook carryover as Leafs skaters created similar expected goals share (52% to 55%) and again generated more even-strength high-danger chances (HDCs). This time, the teams matched power-play goals, and Linus Ullmark was merely average compared to Jeremy Swayman's outstanding Game 1. Meanwhile, Ilya Samsonov was much better in Game 2.

Now, the scene shifts to Toronto, and the odds reflect the change in home-ice advantage. However, shouldn't the Leafs' good even-strength metrics give them a little more credit?

With this being the first game where a series has shifted venues, it's worth a reminder that this means Toronto has the last change. That should provide more room for Auston Matthews and potentially lead to more production for the secondary players, while the Leafs can match their best defenders with the Bruins' dangerous top line if they want to.

Best bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-115)

Game 2: Golden Knights (+145) @ Stars (-175)

Betting, like life, isn't fair. We backed the Stars on Monday, arguing that the game wasn't priced correctly. Dallas was priced at -140 for Game 1, 60 minutes of hockey was played, and the betting market took it all in and decided that the Stars should be -175 in the rematch. By that logic, we were right to bet on Dallas at a 5% edge on the favorite.

As for a game breakdown, we couldn't have gotten a better runout on paper. Dallas held the Golden Knights to just six HDCs at even strength and took just two penalties.

Unfortunately, sports are illogical, so Vegas scored on both power plays and added two more goals on non-high-danger chances, scoring four times on just 15 shots on Jake Oettinger in a 4-3 win.

Everything else aligned as you'd expect. Logan Thompson brought a 0.15 GSAx/60 into the playoffs and gave up a soft goal en route to a 0.26 GSAx in Game 1. The Stars converted two of their 11 even-strength HDCs - in line with their 13.1% regular-season conversion rate.

The moneyline isn't the short price offered before Game 1 - but, hopefully, Oettinger makes more than 11 saves, and the rest of the game goes virtually the same. If that's the case, Dallas should win without the need for overtime.

Best bet: Stars win in regulation (-105)

Game 2: Kings (+160) @ Oilers (-190)

The most forgivable portion of a Stanley Cup Playoff series is the first period of Game 1. Teams handle the change in intensity from the regular season and the high-intensity environment differently. Plus, strategic adjustments haven't yet been made, nor have teams been physically worn down.

The Oilers were more ready to go than the Kings on Monday, as Edmonton racked up 10 even-strength HDCs to Los Angeles' one. Some apathy from a 4-0 Oilers lead may have had something to do with the Kings closing the gap in the predictive metrics, but confidence from Los Angeles scoring four times at even strength may carry over to Game 2.

I'm expecting a more alert start and hope the usually stingy Kings can stay out of the box after their No. 2-ranked penalty kill allowed three goals on four Oilers' power plays. L.A.'s an underdog worth taking a shot on to even the series.

Best bet: Kings moneyline (+160)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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A quartet of opening-game losers are looking to even the series.

Lightning (+150) @ Panthers (-180)

The Lightning were lucky to still be breathing after the first 15 minutes of Game 1. The Panthers channeled the energy from the home crowd and completely outplayed their rival to start the game. However, Florida managed only one goal before Tampa created a scoring chance and finished with just a 13-10 edge in high-danger chances.

Tampa's lethal power play only got two chances to go to work - scoring once - and there's a good chance the team will get more opportunities in Game 2.

At +150, the odds for a Lightning win aren't differing from Game 1 and imply they need to win this game more than 40% of the time to be valuable. Taking Tampa - a veteran team - to draw even in what should be a highly competitive series is a pretty good idea, so if you think this matchup is closer to a 50/50 proposition, you're getting value on the Bolts.

Pick: Lightning moneyline (+150)

Avalanche (-120) @ Jets (+100)

Fading the Avalanche after a 3.77-1.48 advantage in even-strength expected goals isn't easy. However, which of these two aspects of the series in which we favored the Jets is more likely to occur in Game 2?

1. The Jets, who were strong all season, drive play more evenly.
2. Alexandar Georgiev is suddenly good after an effort in which he registered minus-4.43 goals saved above expected.

Georgiev was below average in the regular season (minus-0.21 GSAx), and a turnaround in his play seems far less likely than a turnaround by his counterpart, Vezina favorite Connor Hellebuyck, who also struggled in Game 1. However, rookie Justus Annunen missed practice with an illness on Monday, making him a high-risk play if Colorado wants to give up on Georgiev already.

With no good option in net, the Avalanche may need even more than a 14-8 edge in high-danger chances at even strength.

Pick: Jets moneyline (+100)

Predators (+130) @ Canucks (-155)

This was published before Thatcher Demko was ruled out of Game 2.

Vancouver's first home playoff game in nine years was almost too much for the team. Many said it took some time to settle into the contest. But now that the Canucks have felt what Rogers Arena can be come playoff time, look for them to channel that energy better early on.

The Canucks saw what the Predators do - attempt long breakout passes to counter their dominant offensive-zone possession - and quickly made adjustments, allowing no high-danger chances at even strength in the second period and just four in the third despite late pressure from Nashville.

Vancouver also tightened up its penalty kill after an early Preds conversion and avoided undisciplined penalties.

The Canucks drove play throughout the game and will have the right strategy in place in Game 2. While a moneyline bet should cash, risking -155 might not be your flavor in the postseason. The convincing win that these odds suggest probably comes with a more efficient start and Vancouver leading after the first period. That's a bet worth making at plus odds.

Pick: Canucks - First period 3-way (+150)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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The first weekend of the Stanley Cup Playoffs lacked road victories, but in two of six games, the visitors had metrics that were deserving of victory.

Maple Leafs (+120) @ Bruins (-140)

No one wants to hear that a 5-1 opening-game loss in Boston wasn't that bad for the Maple Leafs, but it actually wasn't that bad.

From a metrics standpoint, Toronto had the edge in even-strength expected goals - 3.0 to 2.77 - and a significant 15-6 advantage in high-danger chances, suggesting the Leafs win the game around 62% of the time.

The problem for Toronto? The Bruins leaned on an incredible performance from Jeremy Swayman, who registered a +3.75 GSAx (goals saved above expected), while Auston Matthews hit the post on a yawning cage, missing a chance to tie the game in the second period. Add in a league-average Boston power play converting two of five opportunities, and that's a recipe for a lopsided score.

A four-goal loss still counts for only one win in a series where the Leafs would be content leaving Boston with a split. The betting market didn't think Game 1 was enough to change the odds for Game 2, as Toronto's +120 moneyline still implies it wins this game. A modest adjustment will often be made in favor of the loser of the last contest, but we're not seeing that here.

It would be a bonus for the Leafs if William Nylander returns, but they produced enough chances without him Saturday, and doing so again will give them a good shot at winning Game 2. At better than a 50-50 price at +120, the Leafs are a surprisingly good bet Monday night and worth adding to win the series at +200.

Best bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (+120)

Golden Knights (+120) @ Stars (-140)

With a pair of Game 1s yet to be played, we're still flying relatively blind in the two series that start Monday. But that's the key to playing the series opener in Dallas. The betting market doesn't know what to make of the allegedly full-strength Golden Knights.

As mentioned in the Western Conference first-round preview, Vegas - a wild-card team with mediocre metrics - is rated nearly as high as the Stars, who proved their quality all season long and earned the conference's top seed.

The market's hypothesis seems to be that the Golden Knights will take off running this week, mirroring the team that won the Stanley Cup with a 21.2% even-strength high-danger chance conversion rate (league average is 12.5%) and a rookie goaltender saving 0.71 GSAx/60. Both numbers would be a significant upgrade from Vegas' regular season. The Knights might realize that high-end potential in Game 1, but we need much longer odds to bet on them.

Instead, let's back the Stars, whose young core - with three series of playoff experience under its belt - will help them transition to postseason mode.

Best bet: Stars moneyline (-140)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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You've had all season to bet on the Stanley Cup winner, but the Conn Smythe Award - given to the playoffs' most valuable player - has only been available on the oddsboard for a few days.

It's a more nuanced betting market with longer odds that can result in a big payout, such as Jonathan Marchessault's Conn Smythe-worthy postseason at longer than 50-1 odds. Had you pegged the Golden Knights for a Cup contender, figured a single goaltender wouldn't necessarily lead the way, and picked out Vegas' most clutch scorer, you'd have a big win on a low-investment bet.

Conn Smythe odds

Players not listed at +6000 odds or longer

Before we get to our best bets, let's start with our annual bet on Connor McDavid.

The premise remains the same. Working backward - as we have to do in this market - if the Oilers win the Stanley Cup, what are the chances they do so without McDavid getting credit for being their MVP? My quantitative assessment would be 0%. Edmonton's odds are +750 to end Canada's championship drought. Why bet that when you can get McDavid for as long as +1200?

Best bets

To start our Conn Smythe betting portfolio, we'll look at the teams we think will advance from the first round and go all the way. We'll then analyze those teams' makeups to determine their most likely MVPs. There are two types of teams - goalie-centric and non-goalie-centric ones. The former often has a deeper forward group and a Vezina-level netminder capable of handling the postseason's long haul. The latter is a team like the 2023 Golden Knights or the 2022 Avalanche, who won despite not having a true No. 1.

Auston Matthews (+2200) or David Pastrnak (+1800)

Call it betting's version of "Choose Your Own Adventure" - the Maple Leafs and Bruins have the tightest series price.

In years past, Matthews shared credit for any Maple Leafs success with Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and even Morgan Rielly. This year's near-70-goal campaign separated Matthews from the group, definitively making him the most likely player to carry the Leafs if they are to achieve the unfathomable. His odds are far better than Toronto's +1200 to win the Stanley Cup.

If you prefer the Bruins to the Leafs in Round 1, you can take Pastrnak. With Boston committed to a goaltender rotation and "Pasta" 43 points clear of his next-closest teammate, he's the clear-cut choice on a potential championship Bruins team.

Nikita Kucherov (+2500)

Matthew Tkachuk almost won the Conn Smythe as a long shot last year, but with the Panthers favored this time around, the word is out on his candidacy. The Lightning's modest regular season doesn't mean they can't have a big postseason, and no one was better than Nikita Kucherov this campaign. To be dangerous, Tampa will need above-average goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy, scoring from Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman's dominance. But Kucherov's at his peak, and his sheer point volume would make him the choice from Tampa.

Seth Jarvis (+15000)
Teuvo Teravainen (+15000)

If we're looking for a Marchessault-like (28-goal, 57-point regular season) candidate, the Hurricanes have a few. The Stanley Cup favorite is likely to use both Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov in the net, and leading point-scorer Sebastian Aho might be assist-heavy.

Jarvis was Carolina's second-leading goal-scorer. The 22-year-old often produced after receiving passes from Aho and led the Canes with 13 power-play goals.

Don't flip a coin between Martin Necas and Teuvo Teravainen. Instead, bet whoever has the longer odds. The second-line wingers also strike on the power play and provide a good lesson about taking long-shot players on great teams versus great players on long-shot teams. Let's grab two Hurricanes at long odds and see if either emerges early with a low-risk bet.

Connor Hellebucyk (+2500)
Thatcher Demko (+5000)

Hellebuyck and Demko are Vezina-level goaltenders for Canadian franchises that are in similar good situations. There are enough capable scorers on the Jets and Canucks to effectively split a Conn Smythe vote. But that shouldn't matter - if a Canadian team brings home the Stanley Cup, it'll almost undoubtedly be on the back of one of the league's best goaltenders.

Miro Heiskanen (+6000)

The Stars' series price against the defending champs is unnecessarily short in the first round, which creates value for any player to win the Conn Smythe. They took the West's top spot without stellar goaltending or a standout scorer, so why couldn't they win the Stanley Cup under the same circumstances? Heiskanen might get credit for everything he does collectively from the back end to make the Stars shine.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.