All posts by C Jackson Cowart

What can bettors learn from past delays, shortened seasons?

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There's clearly no precedent for a work stoppage like what we've seen as a result of the coronavirus, and bettors trying to find one will be disappointed. Still, when the sports world returns to "normal," teams will deal with some of the same issues that we've seen after previous stoppages - limited practice time, shortened seasons, and more schedule-related adversities.

For bettors seeking an edge when leagues resume play, could there be something to learn from past delays?

To find out, we studied every strike, lockout, and other work stoppages over the last 30 years that either shortened the offseason or delayed the start of the schedule. We left out brief midseason interruptions or delays that resulted in canceled postseasons, as those don't help us find an edge in upcoming betting markets.

Here are the six seasons that guided our research and impressions on how this unprecedented delay can guide bettors when major sports leagues eventually return:

Work stoppage Season affected Games missed Champion
NHL lockout 1994-95 34 New Jersey Devils
MLB strike 1995 18 Atlanta Braves
NBA lockout 1998-99 32 San Antonio Spurs
NFL lockout 2011 0 New York Giants
NBA lockout 2011-12 16 Miami Heat
NHL lockout 2012-13 34 Chicago Blackhawks

Bet the favorites

It may seem obvious, but it's by far the strongest trend from the sampled seasons - the best teams win in adverse conditions, often in convincing fashion.

The eventual champion entered the year as one of the top five favorites in five of the six seasons. Only the 2011 New York Giants (+2200) defied the odds, and they had to beat the preseason favorite New England Patriots (+500) in the Super Bowl and the second-favorite Green Bay Packers (+650) in the divisional round during an improbable playoff run.

Some of the most dominant performances in recent memory have come after a shortened offseason, particularly early in the year.

Those 2011 Packers opened the year with 14 straight wins behind preseason MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers (+550). The 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks (+1200) began the season by playing 24 games without a regulation loss, setting an NHL record en route to a Stanley Cup. The 1995 Atlanta Braves (+400) remain tied for the third-shortest odds of any MLB champion since 1985, while the 2011-12 Miami Heat (+225) are tied among the third-shortest NBA favorites to win since 2002.

The betting favorites usually reach the postseason, too. In the NHL, teams with the best title odds comprised most of the playoff field in 1994-95 (14 of the 16 shortest title prices) and 2012-13 (11 of 13). It was a similar story in the NBA in 1998-99 (11 of 12) and 2011-12 (16 of 20), with all 10 of the shortest title favorites making the field in the latter year. This doesn't always occur in sports; the four listed seasons stand in contrast to the relative diversity by preseason odds in the 2018-19 NHL and NBA playoff fields.

So what does that mean for bettors if upcoming seasons or training camps are shortened? Expect dominance from likely title contenders, ride early winning streaks, and don't get too cute with your playoff fields. The best teams - and players - are likely to shine through uncertainty.

Bad teams rising

This is where things get interesting. While the best of the best tend to excel after a reduced offseason, the worst teams also seem to surprise relative to expectation.

Entering the 2011 NFL season, eight teams had title odds of 100-1 or longer. Six of those teams went over their preseason win totals and two of them made the playoffs. Compare that to 2018-19, when just four of the eight teams with comparable odds went over and only one reached the postseason.

We saw similar results in the two most recent lockouts: Five of the six worst teams by title odds went over in the NBA (2011-12), and eight of the 12 worst went over in the NHL (2012-13). It didn't always translate to a playoff berth, but it's worth betting high on some of oddsmakers' least favorite teams.

Interestingly, after each of the three work stoppages in the 2010s, there were more overs than unders among all teams' win totals - with many of them coming from the top and bottom crop of clubs. If you can't decide which middle-tier teams to ride, just bet high on the extremes using history as your compass.

Expect scoring lull

Previous work stoppages have taught us that offenses can have a tough time getting going.

In 1994-95, the NHL saw a significant drop in goals per game (2.99) after years of hovering around 3.5 or higher. The NBA's offensive rating in 1998-99 (102.2) still ranks as the lowest since 1978, and the league's rating in 2011-12 (104.6) is the worst since 2004.

We didn't see a dip in scoring after the NFL's 2011 lockout, but that could change this year if the summer schedule is affected. Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, said he expects totals could drop by 3-4 points if the NFL schedule is affected by delays. That could prove even more costly for offenses with new pieces in place, as we broke down on Thursday.

The market will likely catch up to this right away, so there may not be any value for bettors. But don't be afraid to fade offenses if totals seem a bit high to start the NFL, NBA, or NHL seasons after any potential delays, even with all three leagues trending up in scoring.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Which sport returns 1st? Odds give NBA, NHL best chance at July comeback

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Just over a week has passed since the NBA suspended its regular season, effectively launching a sports blackout in response to concerns over the coronavirus outbreak. Other leagues quickly followed suit, with the NHL, MLB, and MLS suspending their seasons indefinitely, and none look to be returning anytime soon.

Can't wait any longer to bet on those sports? Ironically, you can wager on just how long you'll be waiting for each of those four leagues to return - and you might not like the odds for the over.

NBA

First game played by... YES NO
June 1 +325 -550
July 1 +115 -155
August 1 -170 +130

The NBA was the first league to shut its doors after Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert tested positive for the coronavirus on March 11, and it's been at the front lines of informing fans and bettors just how long this layoff could last.

On Thursday, commissioner Adam Silver told ESPN's Rachel Nichols the league would resume "when public health officials give us the OK," which likely means mid-to-late June at the earliest based on the latest reports regarding owners' expectations.

Silver sounded optimistic but hesitant about the league's chances of returning this season, even floating the idea of an NBA exhibition game for charity during the hiatus. It seems unlikely players would risk injury for an exhibition if they knew the season was starting soon thereafter, though it's hard to project just how long they'll be waiting before basketball resumes.

The longer this season suspension drags on, the more pressure the NBA will be under to shorten the 2020-21 campaign, which would add a whole host of new logistical challenges in addition to a damaged 2019-20 season. That leaves two likely scenarios: A mid-to-late June return (+115) or a canceled season (+130).

The best bet, unfortunately, might be the latter.

NHL

First game played by... YES NO
June 1 +300 -500
July 1 +110 -150
August 1 -160 +120

The NHL and NBA calendars share plenty of similarities, but that doesn't mean the schedule for one will mimic the other.

On Wednesday, deputy NHL commissioner Bill Daly said the league wants to avoid any scenario that cuts into a full 82-game slate next season. That seemingly rules out plans resulting in the postseason extending into late July or early August.

Last year's Stanley Cup Playoffs lasted just over two months, and while the league could move ahead with a truncated postseason, that still doesn't bode well for returning later than June and still preserving a full 2020-21 campaign.

If the NHL hasn't resumed games by June 1 (+300) - which seems highly unlikely given current CDC recommendations - it might not return until next season (+120).

MLB

First game played by... YES NO
June 1 +300 -500
July 1 +145 -185
August 1 -140 +100

Because MLB had yet to start its season before suspending play, it can get the most creative with scheduling solutions.

The league has already delayed Opening Day by at least eight weeks, and it will likely need two-to-four weeks of spring training before starting again, which all but rules out a return by June 1. Talks of abandoning the 2020 draft (June 10-12) and international signing period (July 2) aren't great signs either, though money appears to be the biggest factor there, not safety and public health.

The only potential snag tied to reworking the MLB season is the league and players' union not coming to terms on how to handle service time in a shortened campaign, but that seems unlikely to derail an entire season.

The best bet on the board is a return in July or later (-185), giving a league eager to play its full season enough time.

MLS

First game played by... YES NO
June 1 +275 -450

While not one of the four "major" sports in the U.S., soccer gets the best chance to return before this summer in the oddsmakers' minds. Perhaps that's out of necessity: MLS is the least equipped of the domestic leagues to weather a lengthy work stoppage without revenue from games.

On Thursday, MLS announced it won't return until at least May 10, but that's still a more optimistic date than what's being projected in other leagues. MLS officials have also discussed pushing back the league's championship by a month, which might offer enough wiggle room for an early-summer comeback.

If you're going to bet on any of these leagues returning by June 1, take MLS, but it's looking unlikely we see play from any of the four before then. As somber as it feels, it's worth betting "no" at short odds on any or all of these leagues returning no earlier than June 1.

At least you'd get a small profit from your sports hiatus.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Exploring the coronavirus’ impact on the betting market

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

What is sports betting without sports?

It's a question the sports betting community has grappled with since Wednesday night, when the NBA suspended its season indefinitely after Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

Since then, the NCAA canceled its men's and women's college basketball tournaments, the NHL and MLB suspended play, and other leagues across the world took precautionary measures to prevent the spread of the virus. By the time you're done reading this, another league will have likely followed suit.

Among the hundreds of unanswered questions resulting from this global pandemic, the sports betting industry faces a peculiar one: If there are no sports, what are bettors and bookmakers supposed to do?

"It's never happened," said Robert Walker, sportsbook director for USBookmaking. "We're in such uncharted territory."

Many books, including theScore Bet in New Jersey, have suspended all bets on leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB until further confirmation on when play may resume. In the case of a canceled postseason - such as the NCAA Tournament - most bettors can expect a refund for their futures bets. That includes win totals and title tickets, even if those teams had already been eliminated from contention.

But such refunds depend entirely on the house rules of each book, which may not be equipped for this type of situation. In many cases, bet shops are simply trying to take cues from the leagues in question - which, in a time of ever-changing information, can prove tricky.

"When you’re creating house rules, you try to anticipate different scenarios," said Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader. "But this is a hard scenario to anticipate."

Sportsbooks also have to prepare for the immediate losses from not booking major events on the betting calendar. Last year, Nevada generated $495 million from bets on basketball during March alone, which included $32.5 million in winnings. That's to say nothing of the lost revenue from food and beverages when bettors congregate for key sporting events, such as March Madness or pro leagues' playoffs.

To be clear, there are worse ramifications from the coronavirus outbreak than canceled bets, even within sports - the risk posed to players, team employees, and their families takes precedent. Still, with the sports world on pause, books are preparing for something they've never faced before.

"We’re definitely bracing for the possibility that there’s very little for us to do in April," Walker said.

If this "sports blackout" extends beyond three or four weeks, it'll put incredible stress on books to expand their offerings. Bettors surely won't replicate the volume of basketball and baseball with, say, golf or auto-racing, and an extended period without revenue could threaten the viability of smaller or seasonal leagues - meaning even less to bet on when play resumes.

Needless to say, sportsbooks suffering major losses could jeopardize opportunities for bettors when everything returns to "normal." Yet even with fewer sports to book in the event of a widespread suspension of play, oddsmakers can't afford to inflate prices on their bets during that stretch without losing even more customers, forcing them to navigate even thinner margins in an industry with little room for error.

"You’re not going to see ‘price gouging’ because nobody's going to engage with us if we do that," Rood said. "We’re all in the same boat. We'll be as creative as we possibly can on what’s left to put up for wager."

What if games resume but with no fans? That presents another challenge for sportsbooks, which will be pricing a home advantage with no real evidence to work from.

Normally, home teams get a boost of 2.5 or 3 points on the line, but with no fans in the arena, is it really such an advantage? Rood expects that number to come down, as might the over/under for basketball games played in an empty gym. But he admits that's only a guess, and the early days of fanless sports will be an important "information-gathering" period from the sharp community - albeit with lower limits than usual.

"The answer is we kind of don’t know (what we'd do)," Rood said. "We’re going to need a sample size, and we’re going to have to adapt quickly to what unfolds in those early games if that’s the case moving forward."

For now, it's a "wait and see" situation for sportsbooks, which were booking NCAA title bets just a few days ago. However, they're far from the only ones dealing with the fallout from the coronavirus.

"I've been telling everybody when they leave, 'Be safe,' because that’s all that matters," Walker said. "You want to see the same people the next day. We don’t want to lose anybody over something like this.

"There will be another March Madness. There will be another NBA season. We just want everybody to be safe and healthy."

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.