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The Eastern Conference matchups and their odds have been on the board for days, while the regular season's final night and a pair of surprising results shuffled the deck one final time out West.

Using the tools we've sharpened leading up to the postseason (even strength play-driving, skating talent, goaltending), let's break it all down, series by series.

Kings vs. Oilers

Tale of the tape

Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.

Skaters' scoring talent

Both the Kings and Oilers have converted their best scoring chances (SNIPES) above the league average of 14.5% and are also in the top five in expected goal share.

Goaltending matchup

Skinner came into last year's playoffs saving the Oilers 0.26 goals per 60 minutes after the All-Star break but was replaced by Jack Campbell after posting a -6.9 GSA/x in 12 games. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen if the 36-year-old Talbot can handle the postseason workload.

Team ratings

Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I rate them (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break.

Despite a slow start, the market never wavered on the Oilers, properly rating them as one of the NHL's top teams. The Kings' swoon happened midseason, and some late missteps are concerning, but I have them rated marginally higher than the market.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

The Kings are built to be a playoff irritant. This is the third straight year these teams will face off in the postseason, and the Oilers advanced twice thanks to a 45.7% power play. That ended two seasons where the Kings were ranked 24th and 22nd shorthanded, respectively. While drawing Connor McDavid in the first round is daunting, Los Angeles improved to the second-best penalty kill, and its experience in planning for Edmonton's top line could be beneficial.

These teams combined for 6-plus goals in 10 of the 13 playoff meetings, and the total for Game 1 is 5.5. For the series, it will require some price-shopping and patience, but as the Kings' series price creeps up toward +180, they're the only side worth playing in what should be a tight series.

Best bet: Kings +1.5 games (-140)

Predators vs. Canucks

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

Monster statistical starts to the season for J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, and Brock Boeser made them Canucks All-Stars, while Filip Forsberg's 48-goal season went under the radar alongside surprisingly productive seasons from Gustav Nyquist and Ryan O'Reilly in Nashville.

Goaltending matchup

Demko answered most of the questions surrounding a late-season absence due to a knee injury with 39 saves against the Flames in Vancouver's penultimate regular-season game. Meanwhile, 6.9 of Saros's 7.4 GSAx came during the Predators' 18-game point streak.

Team ratings

One team is a division champion, while the other never got higher in the standings than a wild-card spot, but the Canucks and Predators ended up similarly rated in the market and via the metrics we hold dear.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

Full credit to the Predators for making the playoffs with a stunning 18-game stretch after the All-Star break, but a run that came against just six playoff teams - combining hot goaltending from both Saros and backup Kevin Lankinen, 15 goals for Forsberg, and 25 points for Nyquist - is unsustainable.

The Canucks' Pacific division lead afforded them room to be complacent down the stretch, but in their biggest games, they shut down the Oilers and Golden Knights in playoff-style games. Rick Tocchet's group is deeper offensively and will limit chances against Demko - the better goaltender in this matchup.

Best bet: Canucks -2.5 games (+275)

Avalanche vs. Jets

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

The Jets rarely had a fully healthy group of forwards. Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Nik Ehlers, Cole Perfetti, Gabriel Vilardi, Mason Appleton, and Nino Niederreiter, plus deadline acquisitions Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli, form a core of nine capable of matching Colorado's top-end talent.

Goaltending matchup

The notable difference lies between the pipes, with Hellebuyck the favorite to win the Vezina and Georgiev essentially the definition of a replacement-level goaltender.

Team ratings

The betting market loves the Avalanche. Other teams could be top line-centric with mediocre even-strength metrics and non-descript goaltending and not get nearly the credit Colorado does.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

I feared the Jets hammering the Avs 7-0 in Colorado last Sunday - earning home-ice advantage here - might lead to Winnipeg being favored in this matchup, but Avalanche support is undaunted.

The Jets are the better team top to bottom, have greater depth, and are far healthier than when Vegas quickly knocked them out in last year's first round. Colorado overcame bad goaltending to win a Stanley Cup two seasons ago, but having to skimp on the most critical position in hockey will burn the club for the second straight postseason.

Best bet: Jets to win series (+115)

Golden Knights vs. Stars

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

The Golden Knights enjoyed an unprecedented high-danger chance conversion rate on the way to the Stanley Cup last year, but they're not the better team in that category in this matchup.

Goaltending matchup

This is a matchup between replacement-level goaltenders, as Hill's magical playoff run last year hasn't carried over to this season. Meanwhile, the Stars hope that Oettinger finds his way back to his early-career form that's eluded him for over a year.

Team ratings

The Stars are considered the better team, but the Golden Knights continue to get more credit in the marketplace than they earned this season.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

The Stars should be a much bigger favorite based on season-long metrics and results, but the twist is that the Golden Knights expect to have Mark Stone back, completing a roster that added Tomas Hertl and Noah Hanifin and hasn't been together all season.

Loathe trusting what amounts to a hypothesis about the Golden Knights, even if Vegas is better than the season-long numbers suggest. Getting the Stars as a short favorite is tough to pass up.

Best bet: Stars to win series (-130)

(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

The Western Conference's eight playoff teams have been set for some time, while the East had more of a royal rumble for its final playoff berth. Do the Presidents' Trophy-winning Rangers have a beneficial path? What should we make of the rivalry-laden gauntlet that is the Atlantic Division?

Using the tools we've sharpened leading up to the postseason (even strength play-driving, skating talent, goaltending), let's break it all down, series by series.

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins

Tale of the tape

Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.

Skaters' scoring talent

The Maple Leafs and Bruins were above league average in SNIPES percentage, but Toronto was the better team at driving play at even strength this season.

Goaltending matchup

As of two weeks ago, Ilya Samsonov qualified as a contender for this playoffs' hot goalie, but a minus-4.08 goals saved above expected in April dipped his GSAx/60 below a standard of 0.25. The Bruins have the clear edge between the pipes in this series.

Team ratings

Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I have them rated (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break:

The Bruins' metrics after the All-Star break stick out like a sore thumb, with a 48.6% expected goals share as the main culprit, suggesting they've been below average. They let the Atlantic Division slip through their fingers and must turn their play around to avoid another first-round upset in a row.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

The headline here is that I have the Maple Leafs as the better team and a short favorite despite the Bruins having home-ice advantage and the prevailing sentiment that Boston has historically had Toronto's number.

These teams haven't met in the playoffs since back-to-back seven-game series in 2018 and 2019. Since losing both, the Leafs have improved - exemplified by Auston Matthews doubling his season goal count - and have their deepest forward group yet.

Expectations were probably too high for a young team pre-pandemic, which created a narrative among bettors that the Maple Leafs should be afraid of the Bruins. However, after getting the first-round monkey off their back last season, you should have no problem backing the Leafs at a plus price to win within six games.

Best bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 games (+180)

Lightning vs. Panthers

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

The Panthers have been the more dominant team all season, but the Lightning have the highest SNIPES percentage of any playoff team and are thus dangerous in the small sample size of a seven-game series.

Goaltending matchup

The Lightning's hopes rest on Andrei Vasilevskiy going from liability this season (coming off hip surgery) to pulling off a similar feat to Carey Price or Marc-Andre Fleury - two veteran goalies who recently carried teams to the conference finals despite poor regular seasons.

Team ratings

The Panthers have been rated higher and played better than the Lightning all season.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

In 10 recent playoff matchups against the Panthers, the Lightning have won eight, thanks mainly to a 34.3% power-play efficiency. The veteran group that ran out of gas against Toronto last year won't be afraid of its in-state rival.

Tampa was 28.7% with the man advantage this season (and top five on the penalty kill). If it can get a short-term boost from Vasilevskiy, there's some value on the Lightning - their odds have lengthened since opening at around +140.

Best bet: Lightning to win series (+160)

Capitals vs. Rangers

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

Metrics-based bettors didn't like that the Rangers won the Presidents' Trophy despite an even split in their even-strength expected goals share. Getting the top seed has earned them a matchup with the Capitals, one of three playoff teams worse in that metric.

Goaltending matchup

After a slow start in which Jonathan Quick excelled in the backup role, Igor Shesterkin is back to being a problem for opposing shooters. Meanwhile, the Capitals' unlikely run to the playoffs was aided by Charlie Lindgren's emergence.

Team ratings

The Capitals never got credit in the betting market as even an average team, while the Rangers often looked like one but with far better results.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

The Rangers' SNIPES percentage and stellar goaltending more than made up for average even-strength metrics. It's a similar story to two seasons ago when Shesterkin stood on his head to beat the Penguins. New York reached the conference final despite allowing 138 more high-danger chances than they generated.

The Rangers are marginally overvalued at the current series price but have a track record of overcoming that. Instead of taking the Capitals to win the series, let's bet on this series going a little longer than the market expects.

Best bet: Over 5.5 games (-105)

Islanders vs. Hurricanes

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

This matchup is why it's worth noting high-danger chances against per game. There's not much difference in the other three series, but the Hurricanes have a massive two-per-game differential over the Islanders.

Goaltending matchup

We've included both Canes goaltenders because Frederik Andersen might not be up for a full-time workload, and Pyotr Kochetkov's numbers are so good that the team should have no issue giving Andersen a breather. Meanwhile, the Isles appear to be turning to theoretical backup Semyon Varlamov in Game 1.

Team ratings

Simply put, the Hurricanes have few holes, while the Isles are average at best, with no arguable advantage in any key category.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

Despite excellent even-strength metrics in recent years, the Hurricanes' poor scoring rates have prevented them from meeting expectations. Many will forget that they didn't have Andrei Svechnikov (knee injury) last year. They've added Jake Guentzel (25 points in 17 games), while 22-year-old Seth Jarvis had a 33-goal breakout season. Scoring-depth issues should be solved, and Carolina should make quick work of the Islanders.

Best bet: Hurricanes -1.5 games (-165)

(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

How'd your team do this season?

Once the Eastern Conference mercifully sorts itself out in the coming days, 16 teams will have failed to make the playoffs, and two months from now, 31 will have failed to win the Stanley Cup. However, that doesn't mean every team that doesn't do ceremonial circles around the ice with the Cup gets a thumbs-down on the season.

That's why betting is so fun. We have a market available before the season that sets a preliminary bar for what should constitute a successful campaign: regular-season point totals.

No matter what happens the rest of the way, the 2023-24 season will be remembered by Canucks backers as the easiest win imaginable on an over ticket, as Vancouver cleared 89 points weeks ago. The Jets surpassed expectations at nearly the same level.

Regular-season point totals: Over winners

Fourteen teams are considered winners for their bettors, and even if the Red Wings, Capitals, and Flyers don't make the playoffs, they'll be considered winners in some circles. On the flip side, if you preferred to bet against achievement, the Sharks, Blackhawks, Senators, and Flames were the four biggest disappointments of 13 teams that clinched their under totals (though most teams that didn't get to their prescribed numbers weren't even close).

Regular-season point totals: Under winners

Of course, the Maple Leafs, Golden Knights, and Penguins could still win the Stanley Cup, but that won't be much consolation for those who felt they'd have better regular seasons.

Twenty-seven teams have either paid out their backers or faders, which leaves five teams hanging in the balance for the season's final week:

Regular-season point totals: Markets TBD

The Avalanche play their finale against the Oilers at home Thursday. That game may be meaningless for both, but not for either team's bettors, since Edmonton has to get two wins in its final three games to clear its regular-season points total, potentially without Connor McDavid.

An up-and-down season for the Kings closes with two home games against below-average teams (Wild and Blackhawks). Well rested and motivated for playoff positioning, those who need L.A. to go over 100.5 should feel good, but nothing's guaranteed.

The Islanders are no worse than a push and have two games to manage one point. Appropriately, one more point should get New York into the playoffs, as well, so the art of betting is imitating life here.

Here's a fun one: The Coyotes have one more game to get two points needed to go over their total, and it's against the Oilers in what could be their final game in Arizona before moving to Utah.

The cheat sheet

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side.

You can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

It's worth mentioning as the season concludes: The above odds imply both teams have full interest in the game. For example, the Oilers' numbers reflect McDavid sitting out, since there seems little reason for Edmonton to bring him back before the playoffs. Other teams with secure playoff positioning may opt to put any number of roster combinations on the ice, so tread lightly.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

As we prepare for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, we've reviewed how recent conference finalists have fared during the regular season in expected goals share (xG%) and via our new metric SNIPES. The idea? Can we take what teams were good at and apply it to this season in hopes of identifying any dark horse candidates for a playoff run?

SNIPES showed a significant predictive element for postseason scoring, but xG% did not. Of course, there's another end of the ice. So we need to see if there's any correlation between how well recent teams have kept the puck out of their own net during the regular season and whether that's been predictive for the playoffs.

I looked at high-danger chances allowed by teams, but the average ordinal finish in that category was 12.25, with just one in the top five. Instead, we'll use goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) metrics to evaluate how goaltenders have aided a long playoff run.

Here's how the primary goaltenders for the last 12 teams to make the conference finals fared in the regular season after Feb. 1 and then in the playoffs.

Is there a correlation to playoff success?

Ten of the 12 conference finalists had above-average (0.25 GSAx/60 or better) goaltending during the regular season. Future Hall of Famer Carey Price turned his game around for an epic playoff run in 2021, while the 2023 Stars got past the Wild and Kraken despite Jake Oettinger's struggles.

On Monday, we noticed three substandard teams in our scoring talent metric, SNIPES. Price and Sergei Bobrovsky each made up for those deficiencies, as did Marc-Andre Fleury during his bounce-back 2020-'21 season.

In 2022, Darcy Kuemper gave away an average of a half-goal per game, but amazingly, the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup anyway.

Last year alone, the goaltending duos in Vegas and Carolina, as well as Bobrovsky, showed improved numbers down the regular-season stretch. Meanwhile, Oettinger, despite great first-half numbers, showed cracks later on. Each offered glimpses of what was to come.

Who can put it all together?

We've established that good xG% doesn't necessarily translate to playoff success, so the following is the list of teams that take advantage of their scoring chances (>14.5% SNIPES) while also rostering a goaltender who has saved his team a significant number of goals against (>0.25 GSAx/60) since the All-Star break.

Since they're coming out of the same quarter of the bracket, only one of the Bruins and Maple Leafs can make the conference final. We don't yet have certainty about how things will fall because of shaky ground in the Pacific and wild-card positions, but the Kings, Predators, and Canucks may end up grouped. That would leave the Jets in a quarter with a trio of sketchy goaltending situations in Dallas, Colorado, and Vegas.

Only the Rangers have a path to the conference finals without a team that excels at converting scoring chances while boasting high-level goaltending. That route includes Carolina, who - based on their market rating - would be favored over New York in a second-round matchup.

The cheat sheet

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side.

You can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

*Prices for Edmonton assume Connor McDavid (day-to-day) plays

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

We discovered last week that it hasn't been so simple for teams to turn strong expected goals share metrics into playoff success.

The 2023 Golden Knights had the 16th-best xG% during the regular season and only marginally improved that rate in the playoffs, and all they did was win the Stanley Cup.

Instead, Vegas scored on its even-strength high-danger chances (ES HDC) at a ridiculously opportunistic rate: 21.2%. Was something like that predictable? No, but if a team shows it has the high-end talent to turn a chance - estimated at a fraction of an expected goal - into an actual goal during the regular season, bettors may be inclined to believe an above-average conversion rate can be predictive.

Some teams boast more talented scorers than others. For example, an Auston Matthews shot from close range has a better chance of going in than almost anyone else's.

A team's best measurable scoring opportunity is an ES HDC or power play (league average: 20.8%). The teams with the most talent have a good power play (PP) and are also likely to score at an above-average rate on ES HDC (league average: 12.5%).

Adding PP and ES HDC goals together and dividing them by power-play opportunities and high-danger chances gets you a metric we call SNIPES percentage.

The league average for SNIPES is 14.5%. Here's how the last 12 teams to make a conference final fared during the regular season and then in the playoffs:

Is there a correlation to playoff success?

Eleven of the 12 teams in the above table were above average in SNIPES percentage during the regular season. Only last year's Hurricanes came into the playoffs below average. Carolina had the best regular-season xG% and was third during the playoffs, which can make up for low conversion rates for two rounds.

While some teams saw their efficiency drop, just three fell below average: the 2021 Canadiens, 2021 Golden Knights, and 2023 Panthers. Later this week, we'll see how those three managed to thrive in the postseason when we look at how teams keep the puck out of the net.

The lesson? If any of the above teams score more often relative to how many chances they get in the playoffs, it shouldn't come as a total surprise.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

What does it take to win the Stanley Cup?

The qualitative answers to such an all-encompassing question include toughness, determination, resilience, strength, skill, and a whole lot of luck.

Approaching the playoffs, we look for quantitative hints to spring's biggest question. Thinking about it logically, we want our team to do three things:

1. Outplay opponents at even strength, drive play to wear down the opposition, get high-danger chances, and draw penalties.
2. Score at a high rate when the best opportunities (even-strength high-danger chances, power plays) come about.
3. Limit chances and expected goals from opponents' high-danger chances more often than an average netminder.

Before we get to this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs, let's look back at the last three years and see how the conference finalists faired during the regular season.

First up, a trusted method to measure play-driving: expected goals share (xG%) at even strength (ES):

Is there a correlation to playoff success?

Interestingly, just five of the 12 teams to make a conference final and just one Stanley Cup finalist - the teams in bold in the table above - had a season where they finished in the top eight, a cohort that suggests they're in the top half of the 16 playoff teams.

While we'd prefer to back teams that have a better rate of creating scoring chances than not, there's no recent direct correlation from regular-season success in this metric. This is similar to the regular-season standings, where we've seen three division winners, four second-place finishers, two third-place teams, and three from the fourth/wild-card spot make a conference final.

2023-'24 Even-strength xG%

The top eight teams in xG% are all expected to be in the playoffs but will likely need to do more to make a run in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

On Monday, we'll see how successful playoff teams have recently stacked up in SNIPES, a metric we created that evaluates how good a team's top-end talent is at converting scoring opportunities.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

Don't look now, but it's April.

Even though teams still have more than a handful of games left, we haven't checked in on the betting market's power ratings since the All-Star break. What do those who put their money where their mouth is think of each team?

As a reminder, moneylines are a function of win probability, so each team's rating is based on how much better (plus) or worse (minus) it is than an average team on neutral ice. For example, if your favorite club flies to Sweden and is -150 (60% likely) to beat a league-average (zero) team like the Wild, the betting market has deemed your club 20% better than average.

Below is an estimation of how the betting market rates each team based on recent moneylines. Luckily, at the moment, there are very few player injuries throughout the NHL drastically affecting a team's rating.

NHL betting market power ratings

We included teams' preseason market rating - based on their regular-season points total before the season started - and our estimated rating at the All-Star break (teams with an asterisk are currently in playoff position).

Conceptually, the standings measure what happened yesterday, while market ratings measure what'll happen tomorrow.

The market's still giving the Devils credit as a good team but has backtracked on the Penguins relative to All-Star break expectations. The Flyers and Capitals are currently taking what the market thinks should have been playoff spots for New Jersey and Pittsburgh.

The Predators' rating rose as high as 10% above an average team during their 18-game points streak, but two losses have caused a dip.

There are two types of market scenarios:

1. A team goes on a run (good/bad) and the market changes its rating along the way. You'll need to be lucky to profit during the streak since the team's price is continuously fair.
2. A team goes on a run (good/bad) and the market doesn't move. In this scenario, you're likely getting good value betting on/against the team during its streak.

As games pile up, perception snowballs and teams further separate from top to bottom. For example, a 45% gap between the Hurricanes and Sharks - the NHL's best and worst teams - existed before the season and it's up to 70% today.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

Two weeks ago, we introduced a one-and-done midseason tournament concept for the NHL called "Ice Insanity," seeding teams 1-32 based on league standings but setting parameters for advancement based on tenets of hockey handicapping to ready ourselves for the real thing - the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Here's how we got here:

1. First round: Recent form (even-strength expected goals share (xG%) since the All-Star break)
2. Sweet 16: Ability to drive play (full season even-strength xG%)
3. Elite Eight: A hot goaltender (GSAx per 60 minutes since the All-Star break)

The Hurricanes had a pair of easy matchups in the first two rounds, especially given how good their advanced metrics are. The Canes suddenly have reliable goaltending, which pushed them past the Bruins.

The Flames got fictionally hot at the right time to knock off the Kings in the first round, and then were set up with a great matchup in the second round against the Senators. Calgary barely snuck past the Canucks, thanks to Vancouver's former goalie Jacob Markstrom.

The Panthers beat the Ducks easily, then topped the Lightning in a down year for Tampa, before Sergei Bobrovsky held off the scorching Predators and Juuse Saros.

The Wild's hot play took down the Flyers. Minnesota then beat the Rangers, who were lucky to get past the first round based on their even-strength metrics. The Oilers' shaky goaltending cost them in the Elite Eight, even against mediocre Marc-Andre Fleury.

Final Four

To win our made-up tournament's title belt (we can't compete with the Cup), teams must convert minimal chances the late stages of the playoffs provide. While fluky goals can happen at any moment, they can't be relied upon. But there are two areas where a team's talent level can be the difference-maker: High-danger chances at even strength (ES HDC) and power plays (PPG).

To make "Ice Insanity" even nuttier, we're creating a metric based on how efficiently a team converts high-danger chances at even strength and on the power play. Dividing the goals into the opportunities, we get what we're calling their "SNIPES (Score Now, It's Playoff Extreme Stress) Percentage."

Hockey's version of a "Cinderella" run often ends before the Stanley Cup Final and that's the case for the Flames in our fake tournament.

When the going gets tough, with fewer penalties called and high-danger chances scarce during the run of play, Minnesota - somewhat surprisingly - is more likely than Florida to take advantage of minimal chances available. So it's a Minnesota-Carolina final.

"Ice Insanity" Championship

To crown our champion, we put all our stat categories together, and with a sweep of the four categories, the Hurricanes are your first "Ice Insanity" winners. Their prize: Potential inclusion into your futures portfolio at +650 to win the Stanley Cup. (And a title belt.)

The cheat sheet

The betting world's dirty little secret is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the process of discovering a good price is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. For injured players, the player's impact on their team's win probability is estimated.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

Things are heating up inside our fake midseason NHL one-and-done tournament.

In preparation for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but with the intense urgency of March Madness, we've taken tenets of hockey handicapping and applied them to a made-up tournament to show how early upsets may happen a month from now and what's required for a deep run.

"Ice Insanity" started with the hot team advancing out of the first round. The Sweet 16 came down to which team was more likely to sustain good play for more than one matchup.

Now into the Elite Eight, we know the remaining teams can hold their own. However, at some point, you need a good goaltender, ideally one coming in hot. So, to pick our Final Four, we're looking at who's most likely to steal a game for their team by breaking down the starting goaltender's GSAx (goals saved above expected) per 60 minutes since the All-Star break. With goaltenders as finicky as they are, how one played back in October means little to expectations today:

The Smythe final is interesting because the Bruins and Hurricanes are currently alternating goalies. We picked the better of Boston's Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman and Carolina's Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov. Bottom line: Carolina's netminders are playing better.

The Norris final was similarly intriguing as both Thatcher Demko and Jacob Markstrom have identical 0.3 GSAx/60 marks since the All-Star break, but both have also been banged up. Assuming they're healthy, we're going to a tiebreaker: season-long GSAx. Both goalies have been great on balance, but Markstrom's 31.22 goals saved in 2,475 minutes are more impressive than Demko's 24.79 in 2,896.

The most clear-cut winner comes in the Patrick region, where Sergei Bobrovsky has been better than rock-solid Juuse Saros.

In each round of our fictional tournament, there's been one mediocre matchup. Maybe the Oilers will overcome lackluster goaltending in real life, or turn to Calvin Pickard (0.31 GSAx/60), but until then, Marc-Andre Fleury clips Edmonton.

On Friday, we'll decide the finalists and the first champion of "Ice Insanity," focusing on high-end on-ice talent. With scoring chances at a minimum, who's more likely to convert the few opportunities afforded them?

The cheat sheet

The betting world's dirty little secret is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the process of discovering a good price is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. For injured players, the player's impact on their team's win probability is estimated.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

On Monday, we introduced our made-up March Madness-style tournament for the NHL, "Ice Insanity." Beyond bringing levity at a point in the season that could use some, the idea is to see how NHL teams are faring in categories we use to handicap games.

In Round 1, we advanced the hotter team. Using even-strength expected goals share (xG%) from the All-Star break onwards, we saw that there may be a handful of upsets and a few near-shockers, indicating that some playoff teams need to pick up their play if they don't want to be victimized when the real thing starts in late April.

Coming in hot is cool and all, but who has the staying power to make the Elite Eight? We'll pull back, looking at a full season of even-strength play, knowing we want to back quality squads - not streaky ones - when the going gets tough.

Here's how the bracket breaks for Round 2, using teams' expected goals percentage at even strength (ES xG%) since the start of the season (as of March 20):

We have a handful of bracket-breakers. The Avalanche have the better record, but the Predators' extended hot streak has surprisingly made them the slightly better team this season when it comes to creating expected goals at even strength (171-165). The Rangers survived the fake first round with a low xG% because they were facing the Blackhawks, but that won't work against the Wild, who've been very good since a late November coaching change.

It seems unfair that the Oilers and Stars face each other this early, while Senators-Flames is like that occasional No. 12 versus No. 13 second-round matchup in the NCAA Tournament.

From here, we'll move away from who's driving play and advance teams whose goaltenders are more likely to save their team enough goals to send them to the Final Four.

The cheat sheet

The betting world's dirty little secret is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the process of discovering a good price is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. For injured players, the player's impact on their team's win probability is estimated.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.