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As the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue, game moneylines theoretically get tighter. With more information about how teams match up, the quantitative value dries up. However, since there's more than one way to make a bet, we'll put an old cliche to the test Thursday and hope that desperation from a pair of teams at home down 2-0 is enough to get a win.

Game 3: Panthers (-105) @ Lightning (-115)

As is often the case with overtime results, this series may have been swung by Carter Verhaeghe's fifth career sudden-death playoff goal. Of course, the writing might have been on the wall after Sergei Bobrovsky's effort on what will be hard to beat for save of the playoffs:

If Matt Dumba converts there to give the Lightning a 3-2 lead, maybe we never see overtime, and maybe this series is tied. It's a big assumption, since the trailing Panthers would have put the pedal down even further - something they were already doing to the tune of an 18-8 high-danger chance disparity in the second period.

Florida's significant edge in five-on-five metrics came in the early stages of Game 1 and the second period of Game 2. While that's better than the lack of dominant stretches for Tampa, who's to say the Lightning can't have similar surges in front of their home crowd? That's what a bet here is hoping for.

One silver lining in the Lightning's empty trip across Florida was the play of Andrei Vasilevskiy, who's saved two cumulative goals against each game. Getting its No. 1 goaltender back on form was obviously key for Tampa before the series and bodes well for Game 3.

Before this series started, our target moneyline price to back the Lightning at home was essentially anything with a "+" in front of it. While -115 implies something of desperation tax, in a do-or-almost-die situation, the Lightning are the only side worth backing.

Best bet: Lightning moneyline (-115)

Game 3: Hurricanes (-165) @ Islanders (+140)

Carolina almost pulled a "Hurricane" in Game 2. The oft-heavily favored Canes are somewhat infamous for losing games they dominate everywhere but the scoreboard, something that nearly happened when they trailed the Islanders 3-0, in a game they had 110 shot attempts to New York's 28.

Carolina surged back to win in regulation, and the metrics didn't flatter the Isles. The Hurricanes' trailing game state - where the Isles assumed clinging to a lead was their best hope - had much to do with that.

Back home in a new building, in front of a fanbase known for out-and-out mayhem, the Isles should be the aggressors again, and if they get an early lead, they'll have inspiration to stay on the front foot. Especially since going down 3-0 in the series to a much better team isn't an option.

With goaltender Semyon Varlamov still reeling from the Game 2 onslaught, New York will turn to Ilya Sorokin for Game 3. Sorokin was the Islanders' nominal starter before a late-season Varlamov push. Sorokin's splits were much better at home this season, with a 15-7 regulation record compared to 10-12 on the road. He allows almost half a goal less at UBS Arena.

The market's well aware that if the Isles get a game in this series, this will be it. They're priced a little shorter than we'd like, but this should be the Islanders' best 60 minutes of the season and we'll bet it that way.

Best bet: Islanders moneyline (+140)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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Wednesday's NHL playoff slate has a pair of intriguing Game 2 matchups, plus the Bruins and Maple Leafs have the honor of being the first series to shift locations, which tightens the game line even further.

Game 3: Bruins (-105) @ Maple Leafs (-115)

Uncomfortable bets often make for good ones, and backing and winning with the Maple Leafs in Boston on Monday was one you had to grit your teeth for. However, the even-strength metrics suggested that - with more evenly matched special teams and no outlier goaltending performance - the final score might be considerably different the second time around.

Sure enough, we saw a textbook carryover as Leafs skaters created similar expected goals share (52% to 55%) and again generated more even-strength high-danger chances (HDCs). This time, the teams matched power-play goals, and Linus Ullmark was merely average compared to Jeremy Swayman's outstanding Game 1. Meanwhile, Ilya Samsonov was much better in Game 2.

Now, the scene shifts to Toronto, and the odds reflect the change in home-ice advantage. However, shouldn't the Leafs' good even-strength metrics give them a little more credit?

With this being the first game where a series has shifted venues, it's worth a reminder that this means Toronto has the last change. That should provide more room for Auston Matthews and potentially lead to more production for the secondary players, while the Leafs can match their best defenders with the Bruins' dangerous top line if they want to.

Best bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-115)

Game 2: Golden Knights (+145) @ Stars (-175)

Betting, like life, isn't fair. We backed the Stars on Monday, arguing that the game wasn't priced correctly. Dallas was priced at -140 for Game 1, 60 minutes of hockey was played, and the betting market took it all in and decided that the Stars should be -175 in the rematch. By that logic, we were right to bet on Dallas at a 5% edge on the favorite.

As for a game breakdown, we couldn't have gotten a better runout on paper. Dallas held the Golden Knights to just six HDCs at even strength and took just two penalties.

Unfortunately, sports are illogical, so Vegas scored on both power plays and added two more goals on non-high-danger chances, scoring four times on just 15 shots on Jake Oettinger in a 4-3 win.

Everything else aligned as you'd expect. Logan Thompson brought a 0.15 GSAx/60 into the playoffs and gave up a soft goal en route to a 0.26 GSAx in Game 1. The Stars converted two of their 11 even-strength HDCs - in line with their 13.1% regular-season conversion rate.

The moneyline isn't the short price offered before Game 1 - but, hopefully, Oettinger makes more than 11 saves, and the rest of the game goes virtually the same. If that's the case, Dallas should win without the need for overtime.

Best bet: Stars win in regulation (-105)

Game 2: Kings (+160) @ Oilers (-190)

The most forgivable portion of a Stanley Cup Playoff series is the first period of Game 1. Teams handle the change in intensity from the regular season and the high-intensity environment differently. Plus, strategic adjustments haven't yet been made, nor have teams been physically worn down.

The Oilers were more ready to go than the Kings on Monday, as Edmonton racked up 10 even-strength HDCs to Los Angeles' one. Some apathy from a 4-0 Oilers lead may have had something to do with the Kings closing the gap in the predictive metrics, but confidence from Los Angeles scoring four times at even strength may carry over to Game 2.

I'm expecting a more alert start and hope the usually stingy Kings can stay out of the box after their No. 2-ranked penalty kill allowed three goals on four Oilers' power plays. L.A.'s an underdog worth taking a shot on to even the series.

Best bet: Kings moneyline (+160)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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A quartet of opening-game losers are looking to even the series.

Lightning (+150) @ Panthers (-180)

The Lightning were lucky to still be breathing after the first 15 minutes of Game 1. The Panthers channeled the energy from the home crowd and completely outplayed their rival to start the game. However, Florida managed only one goal before Tampa created a scoring chance and finished with just a 13-10 edge in high-danger chances.

Tampa's lethal power play only got two chances to go to work - scoring once - and there's a good chance the team will get more opportunities in Game 2.

At +150, the odds for a Lightning win aren't differing from Game 1 and imply they need to win this game more than 40% of the time to be valuable. Taking Tampa - a veteran team - to draw even in what should be a highly competitive series is a pretty good idea, so if you think this matchup is closer to a 50/50 proposition, you're getting value on the Bolts.

Pick: Lightning moneyline (+150)

Avalanche (-120) @ Jets (+100)

Fading the Avalanche after a 3.77-1.48 advantage in even-strength expected goals isn't easy. However, which of these two aspects of the series in which we favored the Jets is more likely to occur in Game 2?

1. The Jets, who were strong all season, drive play more evenly.
2. Alexandar Georgiev is suddenly good after an effort in which he registered minus-4.43 goals saved above expected.

Georgiev was below average in the regular season (minus-0.21 GSAx), and a turnaround in his play seems far less likely than a turnaround by his counterpart, Vezina favorite Connor Hellebuyck, who also struggled in Game 1. However, rookie Justus Annunen missed practice with an illness on Monday, making him a high-risk play if Colorado wants to give up on Georgiev already.

With no good option in net, the Avalanche may need even more than a 14-8 edge in high-danger chances at even strength.

Pick: Jets moneyline (+100)

Predators (+130) @ Canucks (-155)

This was published before Thatcher Demko was ruled out of Game 2.

Vancouver's first home playoff game in nine years was almost too much for the team. Many said it took some time to settle into the contest. But now that the Canucks have felt what Rogers Arena can be come playoff time, look for them to channel that energy better early on.

The Canucks saw what the Predators do - attempt long breakout passes to counter their dominant offensive-zone possession - and quickly made adjustments, allowing no high-danger chances at even strength in the second period and just four in the third despite late pressure from Nashville.

Vancouver also tightened up its penalty kill after an early Preds conversion and avoided undisciplined penalties.

The Canucks drove play throughout the game and will have the right strategy in place in Game 2. While a moneyline bet should cash, risking -155 might not be your flavor in the postseason. The convincing win that these odds suggest probably comes with a more efficient start and Vancouver leading after the first period. That's a bet worth making at plus odds.

Pick: Canucks - First period 3-way (+150)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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The first weekend of the Stanley Cup Playoffs lacked road victories, but in two of six games, the visitors had metrics that were deserving of victory.

Maple Leafs (+120) @ Bruins (-140)

No one wants to hear that a 5-1 opening-game loss in Boston wasn't that bad for the Maple Leafs, but it actually wasn't that bad.

From a metrics standpoint, Toronto had the edge in even-strength expected goals - 3.0 to 2.77 - and a significant 15-6 advantage in high-danger chances, suggesting the Leafs win the game around 62% of the time.

The problem for Toronto? The Bruins leaned on an incredible performance from Jeremy Swayman, who registered a +3.75 GSAx (goals saved above expected), while Auston Matthews hit the post on a yawning cage, missing a chance to tie the game in the second period. Add in a league-average Boston power play converting two of five opportunities, and that's a recipe for a lopsided score.

A four-goal loss still counts for only one win in a series where the Leafs would be content leaving Boston with a split. The betting market didn't think Game 1 was enough to change the odds for Game 2, as Toronto's +120 moneyline still implies it wins this game. A modest adjustment will often be made in favor of the loser of the last contest, but we're not seeing that here.

It would be a bonus for the Leafs if William Nylander returns, but they produced enough chances without him Saturday, and doing so again will give them a good shot at winning Game 2. At better than a 50-50 price at +120, the Leafs are a surprisingly good bet Monday night and worth adding to win the series at +200.

Best bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (+120)

Golden Knights (+120) @ Stars (-140)

With a pair of Game 1s yet to be played, we're still flying relatively blind in the two series that start Monday. But that's the key to playing the series opener in Dallas. The betting market doesn't know what to make of the allegedly full-strength Golden Knights.

As mentioned in the Western Conference first-round preview, Vegas - a wild-card team with mediocre metrics - is rated nearly as high as the Stars, who proved their quality all season long and earned the conference's top seed.

The market's hypothesis seems to be that the Golden Knights will take off running this week, mirroring the team that won the Stanley Cup with a 21.2% even-strength high-danger chance conversion rate (league average is 12.5%) and a rookie goaltender saving 0.71 GSAx/60. Both numbers would be a significant upgrade from Vegas' regular season. The Knights might realize that high-end potential in Game 1, but we need much longer odds to bet on them.

Instead, let's back the Stars, whose young core - with three series of playoff experience under its belt - will help them transition to postseason mode.

Best bet: Stars moneyline (-140)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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You've had all season to bet on the Stanley Cup winner, but the Conn Smythe Award - given to the playoffs' most valuable player - has only been available on the oddsboard for a few days.

It's a more nuanced betting market with longer odds that can result in a big payout, such as Jonathan Marchessault's Conn Smythe-worthy postseason at longer than 50-1 odds. Had you pegged the Golden Knights for a Cup contender, figured a single goaltender wouldn't necessarily lead the way, and picked out Vegas' most clutch scorer, you'd have a big win on a low-investment bet.

Conn Smythe odds

Players not listed at +6000 odds or longer

Before we get to our best bets, let's start with our annual bet on Connor McDavid.

The premise remains the same. Working backward - as we have to do in this market - if the Oilers win the Stanley Cup, what are the chances they do so without McDavid getting credit for being their MVP? My quantitative assessment would be 0%. Edmonton's odds are +750 to end Canada's championship drought. Why bet that when you can get McDavid for as long as +1200?

Best bets

To start our Conn Smythe betting portfolio, we'll look at the teams we think will advance from the first round and go all the way. We'll then analyze those teams' makeups to determine their most likely MVPs. There are two types of teams - goalie-centric and non-goalie-centric ones. The former often has a deeper forward group and a Vezina-level netminder capable of handling the postseason's long haul. The latter is a team like the 2023 Golden Knights or the 2022 Avalanche, who won despite not having a true No. 1.

Auston Matthews (+2200) or David Pastrnak (+1800)

Call it betting's version of "Choose Your Own Adventure" - the Maple Leafs and Bruins have the tightest series price.

In years past, Matthews shared credit for any Maple Leafs success with Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and even Morgan Rielly. This year's near-70-goal campaign separated Matthews from the group, definitively making him the most likely player to carry the Leafs if they are to achieve the unfathomable. His odds are far better than Toronto's +1200 to win the Stanley Cup.

If you prefer the Bruins to the Leafs in Round 1, you can take Pastrnak. With Boston committed to a goaltender rotation and "Pasta" 43 points clear of his next-closest teammate, he's the clear-cut choice on a potential championship Bruins team.

Nikita Kucherov (+2500)

Matthew Tkachuk almost won the Conn Smythe as a long shot last year, but with the Panthers favored this time around, the word is out on his candidacy. The Lightning's modest regular season doesn't mean they can't have a big postseason, and no one was better than Nikita Kucherov this campaign. To be dangerous, Tampa will need above-average goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy, scoring from Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman's dominance. But Kucherov's at his peak, and his sheer point volume would make him the choice from Tampa.

Seth Jarvis (+15000)
Teuvo Teravainen (+15000)

If we're looking for a Marchessault-like (28-goal, 57-point regular season) candidate, the Hurricanes have a few. The Stanley Cup favorite is likely to use both Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov in the net, and leading point-scorer Sebastian Aho might be assist-heavy.

Jarvis was Carolina's second-leading goal-scorer. The 22-year-old often produced after receiving passes from Aho and led the Canes with 13 power-play goals.

Don't flip a coin between Martin Necas and Teuvo Teravainen. Instead, bet whoever has the longer odds. The second-line wingers also strike on the power play and provide a good lesson about taking long-shot players on great teams versus great players on long-shot teams. Let's grab two Hurricanes at long odds and see if either emerges early with a low-risk bet.

Connor Hellebucyk (+2500)
Thatcher Demko (+5000)

Hellebuyck and Demko are Vezina-level goaltenders for Canadian franchises that are in similar good situations. There are enough capable scorers on the Jets and Canucks to effectively split a Conn Smythe vote. But that shouldn't matter - if a Canadian team brings home the Stanley Cup, it'll almost undoubtedly be on the back of one of the league's best goaltenders.

Miro Heiskanen (+6000)

The Stars' series price against the defending champs is unnecessarily short in the first round, which creates value for any player to win the Conn Smythe. They took the West's top spot without stellar goaltending or a standout scorer, so why couldn't they win the Stanley Cup under the same circumstances? Heiskanen might get credit for everything he does collectively from the back end to make the Stars shine.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

The Eastern Conference matchups and their odds have been on the board for days, while the regular season's final night and a pair of surprising results shuffled the deck one final time out West.

Using the tools we've sharpened leading up to the postseason (even strength play-driving, skating talent, goaltending), let's break it all down, series by series.

Kings vs. Oilers

Tale of the tape

Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.

Skaters' scoring talent

Both the Kings and Oilers have converted their best scoring chances (SNIPES) above the league average of 14.5% and are also in the top five in expected goal share.

Goaltending matchup

Skinner came into last year's playoffs saving the Oilers 0.26 goals per 60 minutes after the All-Star break but was replaced by Jack Campbell after posting a -6.9 GSA/x in 12 games. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen if the 36-year-old Talbot can handle the postseason workload.

Team ratings

Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I rate them (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break.

Despite a slow start, the market never wavered on the Oilers, properly rating them as one of the NHL's top teams. The Kings' swoon happened midseason, and some late missteps are concerning, but I have them rated marginally higher than the market.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

The Kings are built to be a playoff irritant. This is the third straight year these teams will face off in the postseason, and the Oilers advanced twice thanks to a 45.7% power play. That ended two seasons where the Kings were ranked 24th and 22nd shorthanded, respectively. While drawing Connor McDavid in the first round is daunting, Los Angeles improved to the second-best penalty kill, and its experience in planning for Edmonton's top line could be beneficial.

These teams combined for 6-plus goals in 10 of the 13 playoff meetings, and the total for Game 1 is 5.5. For the series, it will require some price-shopping and patience, but as the Kings' series price creeps up toward +180, they're the only side worth playing in what should be a tight series.

Best bet: Kings +1.5 games (-140)

Predators vs. Canucks

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

Monster statistical starts to the season for J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, and Brock Boeser made them Canucks All-Stars, while Filip Forsberg's 48-goal season went under the radar alongside surprisingly productive seasons from Gustav Nyquist and Ryan O'Reilly in Nashville.

Goaltending matchup

Demko answered most of the questions surrounding a late-season absence due to a knee injury with 39 saves against the Flames in Vancouver's penultimate regular-season game. Meanwhile, 6.9 of Saros's 7.4 GSAx came during the Predators' 18-game point streak.

Team ratings

One team is a division champion, while the other never got higher in the standings than a wild-card spot, but the Canucks and Predators ended up similarly rated in the market and via the metrics we hold dear.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

Full credit to the Predators for making the playoffs with a stunning 18-game stretch after the All-Star break, but a run that came against just six playoff teams - combining hot goaltending from both Saros and backup Kevin Lankinen, 15 goals for Forsberg, and 25 points for Nyquist - is unsustainable.

The Canucks' Pacific division lead afforded them room to be complacent down the stretch, but in their biggest games, they shut down the Oilers and Golden Knights in playoff-style games. Rick Tocchet's group is deeper offensively and will limit chances against Demko - the better goaltender in this matchup.

Best bet: Canucks -2.5 games (+275)

Avalanche vs. Jets

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

The Jets rarely had a fully healthy group of forwards. Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Nik Ehlers, Cole Perfetti, Gabriel Vilardi, Mason Appleton, and Nino Niederreiter, plus deadline acquisitions Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli, form a core of nine capable of matching Colorado's top-end talent.

Goaltending matchup

The notable difference lies between the pipes, with Hellebuyck the favorite to win the Vezina and Georgiev essentially the definition of a replacement-level goaltender.

Team ratings

The betting market loves the Avalanche. Other teams could be top line-centric with mediocre even-strength metrics and non-descript goaltending and not get nearly the credit Colorado does.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

I feared the Jets hammering the Avs 7-0 in Colorado last Sunday - earning home-ice advantage here - might lead to Winnipeg being favored in this matchup, but Avalanche support is undaunted.

The Jets are the better team top to bottom, have greater depth, and are far healthier than when Vegas quickly knocked them out in last year's first round. Colorado overcame bad goaltending to win a Stanley Cup two seasons ago, but having to skimp on the most critical position in hockey will burn the club for the second straight postseason.

Best bet: Jets to win series (+115)

Golden Knights vs. Stars

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

The Golden Knights enjoyed an unprecedented high-danger chance conversion rate on the way to the Stanley Cup last year, but they're not the better team in that category in this matchup.

Goaltending matchup

This is a matchup between replacement-level goaltenders, as Hill's magical playoff run last year hasn't carried over to this season. Meanwhile, the Stars hope that Oettinger finds his way back to his early-career form that's eluded him for over a year.

Team ratings

The Stars are considered the better team, but the Golden Knights continue to get more credit in the marketplace than they earned this season.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

The Stars should be a much bigger favorite based on season-long metrics and results, but the twist is that the Golden Knights expect to have Mark Stone back, completing a roster that added Tomas Hertl and Noah Hanifin and hasn't been together all season.

Loathe trusting what amounts to a hypothesis about the Golden Knights, even if Vegas is better than the season-long numbers suggest. Getting the Stars as a short favorite is tough to pass up.

Best bet: Stars to win series (-130)

(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

The Western Conference's eight playoff teams have been set for some time, while the East had more of a royal rumble for its final playoff berth. Do the Presidents' Trophy-winning Rangers have a beneficial path? What should we make of the rivalry-laden gauntlet that is the Atlantic Division?

Using the tools we've sharpened leading up to the postseason (even strength play-driving, skating talent, goaltending), let's break it all down, series by series.

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins

Tale of the tape

Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.

Skaters' scoring talent

The Maple Leafs and Bruins were above league average in SNIPES percentage, but Toronto was the better team at driving play at even strength this season.

Goaltending matchup

As of two weeks ago, Ilya Samsonov qualified as a contender for this playoffs' hot goalie, but a minus-4.08 goals saved above expected in April dipped his GSAx/60 below a standard of 0.25. The Bruins have the clear edge between the pipes in this series.

Team ratings

Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I have them rated (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break:

The Bruins' metrics after the All-Star break stick out like a sore thumb, with a 48.6% expected goals share as the main culprit, suggesting they've been below average. They let the Atlantic Division slip through their fingers and must turn their play around to avoid another first-round upset in a row.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

The headline here is that I have the Maple Leafs as the better team and a short favorite despite the Bruins having home-ice advantage and the prevailing sentiment that Boston has historically had Toronto's number.

These teams haven't met in the playoffs since back-to-back seven-game series in 2018 and 2019. Since losing both, the Leafs have improved - exemplified by Auston Matthews doubling his season goal count - and have their deepest forward group yet.

Expectations were probably too high for a young team pre-pandemic, which created a narrative among bettors that the Maple Leafs should be afraid of the Bruins. However, after getting the first-round monkey off their back last season, you should have no problem backing the Leafs at a plus price to win within six games.

Best bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 games (+180)

Lightning vs. Panthers

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

The Panthers have been the more dominant team all season, but the Lightning have the highest SNIPES percentage of any playoff team and are thus dangerous in the small sample size of a seven-game series.

Goaltending matchup

The Lightning's hopes rest on Andrei Vasilevskiy going from liability this season (coming off hip surgery) to pulling off a similar feat to Carey Price or Marc-Andre Fleury - two veteran goalies who recently carried teams to the conference finals despite poor regular seasons.

Team ratings

The Panthers have been rated higher and played better than the Lightning all season.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

In 10 recent playoff matchups against the Panthers, the Lightning have won eight, thanks mainly to a 34.3% power-play efficiency. The veteran group that ran out of gas against Toronto last year won't be afraid of its in-state rival.

Tampa was 28.7% with the man advantage this season (and top five on the penalty kill). If it can get a short-term boost from Vasilevskiy, there's some value on the Lightning - their odds have lengthened since opening at around +140.

Best bet: Lightning to win series (+160)

Capitals vs. Rangers

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

Metrics-based bettors didn't like that the Rangers won the Presidents' Trophy despite an even split in their even-strength expected goals share. Getting the top seed has earned them a matchup with the Capitals, one of three playoff teams worse in that metric.

Goaltending matchup

After a slow start in which Jonathan Quick excelled in the backup role, Igor Shesterkin is back to being a problem for opposing shooters. Meanwhile, the Capitals' unlikely run to the playoffs was aided by Charlie Lindgren's emergence.

Team ratings

The Capitals never got credit in the betting market as even an average team, while the Rangers often looked like one but with far better results.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

The Rangers' SNIPES percentage and stellar goaltending more than made up for average even-strength metrics. It's a similar story to two seasons ago when Shesterkin stood on his head to beat the Penguins. New York reached the conference final despite allowing 138 more high-danger chances than they generated.

The Rangers are marginally overvalued at the current series price but have a track record of overcoming that. Instead of taking the Capitals to win the series, let's bet on this series going a little longer than the market expects.

Best bet: Over 5.5 games (-105)

Islanders vs. Hurricanes

Tale of the tape

Skaters' scoring talent

This matchup is why it's worth noting high-danger chances against per game. There's not much difference in the other three series, but the Hurricanes have a massive two-per-game differential over the Islanders.

Goaltending matchup

We've included both Canes goaltenders because Frederik Andersen might not be up for a full-time workload, and Pyotr Kochetkov's numbers are so good that the team should have no issue giving Andersen a breather. Meanwhile, the Isles appear to be turning to theoretical backup Semyon Varlamov in Game 1.

Team ratings

Simply put, the Hurricanes have few holes, while the Isles are average at best, with no arguable advantage in any key category.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

Despite excellent even-strength metrics in recent years, the Hurricanes' poor scoring rates have prevented them from meeting expectations. Many will forget that they didn't have Andrei Svechnikov (knee injury) last year. They've added Jake Guentzel (25 points in 17 games), while 22-year-old Seth Jarvis had a 33-goal breakout season. Scoring-depth issues should be solved, and Carolina should make quick work of the Islanders.

Best bet: Hurricanes -1.5 games (-165)

(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

How'd your team do this season?

Once the Eastern Conference mercifully sorts itself out in the coming days, 16 teams will have failed to make the playoffs, and two months from now, 31 will have failed to win the Stanley Cup. However, that doesn't mean every team that doesn't do ceremonial circles around the ice with the Cup gets a thumbs-down on the season.

That's why betting is so fun. We have a market available before the season that sets a preliminary bar for what should constitute a successful campaign: regular-season point totals.

No matter what happens the rest of the way, the 2023-24 season will be remembered by Canucks backers as the easiest win imaginable on an over ticket, as Vancouver cleared 89 points weeks ago. The Jets surpassed expectations at nearly the same level.

Regular-season point totals: Over winners

Fourteen teams are considered winners for their bettors, and even if the Red Wings, Capitals, and Flyers don't make the playoffs, they'll be considered winners in some circles. On the flip side, if you preferred to bet against achievement, the Sharks, Blackhawks, Senators, and Flames were the four biggest disappointments of 13 teams that clinched their under totals (though most teams that didn't get to their prescribed numbers weren't even close).

Regular-season point totals: Under winners

Of course, the Maple Leafs, Golden Knights, and Penguins could still win the Stanley Cup, but that won't be much consolation for those who felt they'd have better regular seasons.

Twenty-seven teams have either paid out their backers or faders, which leaves five teams hanging in the balance for the season's final week:

Regular-season point totals: Markets TBD

The Avalanche play their finale against the Oilers at home Thursday. That game may be meaningless for both, but not for either team's bettors, since Edmonton has to get two wins in its final three games to clear its regular-season points total, potentially without Connor McDavid.

An up-and-down season for the Kings closes with two home games against below-average teams (Wild and Blackhawks). Well rested and motivated for playoff positioning, those who need L.A. to go over 100.5 should feel good, but nothing's guaranteed.

The Islanders are no worse than a push and have two games to manage one point. Appropriately, one more point should get New York into the playoffs, as well, so the art of betting is imitating life here.

Here's a fun one: The Coyotes have one more game to get two points needed to go over their total, and it's against the Oilers in what could be their final game in Arizona before moving to Utah.

The cheat sheet

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side.

You can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

It's worth mentioning as the season concludes: The above odds imply both teams have full interest in the game. For example, the Oilers' numbers reflect McDavid sitting out, since there seems little reason for Edmonton to bring him back before the playoffs. Other teams with secure playoff positioning may opt to put any number of roster combinations on the ice, so tread lightly.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

As we prepare for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, we've reviewed how recent conference finalists have fared during the regular season in expected goals share (xG%) and via our new metric SNIPES. The idea? Can we take what teams were good at and apply it to this season in hopes of identifying any dark horse candidates for a playoff run?

SNIPES showed a significant predictive element for postseason scoring, but xG% did not. Of course, there's another end of the ice. So we need to see if there's any correlation between how well recent teams have kept the puck out of their own net during the regular season and whether that's been predictive for the playoffs.

I looked at high-danger chances allowed by teams, but the average ordinal finish in that category was 12.25, with just one in the top five. Instead, we'll use goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) metrics to evaluate how goaltenders have aided a long playoff run.

Here's how the primary goaltenders for the last 12 teams to make the conference finals fared in the regular season after Feb. 1 and then in the playoffs.

Is there a correlation to playoff success?

Ten of the 12 conference finalists had above-average (0.25 GSAx/60 or better) goaltending during the regular season. Future Hall of Famer Carey Price turned his game around for an epic playoff run in 2021, while the 2023 Stars got past the Wild and Kraken despite Jake Oettinger's struggles.

On Monday, we noticed three substandard teams in our scoring talent metric, SNIPES. Price and Sergei Bobrovsky each made up for those deficiencies, as did Marc-Andre Fleury during his bounce-back 2020-'21 season.

In 2022, Darcy Kuemper gave away an average of a half-goal per game, but amazingly, the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup anyway.

Last year alone, the goaltending duos in Vegas and Carolina, as well as Bobrovsky, showed improved numbers down the regular-season stretch. Meanwhile, Oettinger, despite great first-half numbers, showed cracks later on. Each offered glimpses of what was to come.

Who can put it all together?

We've established that good xG% doesn't necessarily translate to playoff success, so the following is the list of teams that take advantage of their scoring chances (>14.5% SNIPES) while also rostering a goaltender who has saved his team a significant number of goals against (>0.25 GSAx/60) since the All-Star break.

Since they're coming out of the same quarter of the bracket, only one of the Bruins and Maple Leafs can make the conference final. We don't yet have certainty about how things will fall because of shaky ground in the Pacific and wild-card positions, but the Kings, Predators, and Canucks may end up grouped. That would leave the Jets in a quarter with a trio of sketchy goaltending situations in Dallas, Colorado, and Vegas.

Only the Rangers have a path to the conference finals without a team that excels at converting scoring chances while boasting high-level goaltending. That route includes Carolina, who - based on their market rating - would be favored over New York in a second-round matchup.

The cheat sheet

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side.

You can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

*Prices for Edmonton assume Connor McDavid (day-to-day) plays

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

We discovered last week that it hasn't been so simple for teams to turn strong expected goals share metrics into playoff success.

The 2023 Golden Knights had the 16th-best xG% during the regular season and only marginally improved that rate in the playoffs, and all they did was win the Stanley Cup.

Instead, Vegas scored on its even-strength high-danger chances (ES HDC) at a ridiculously opportunistic rate: 21.2%. Was something like that predictable? No, but if a team shows it has the high-end talent to turn a chance - estimated at a fraction of an expected goal - into an actual goal during the regular season, bettors may be inclined to believe an above-average conversion rate can be predictive.

Some teams boast more talented scorers than others. For example, an Auston Matthews shot from close range has a better chance of going in than almost anyone else's.

A team's best measurable scoring opportunity is an ES HDC or power play (league average: 20.8%). The teams with the most talent have a good power play (PP) and are also likely to score at an above-average rate on ES HDC (league average: 12.5%).

Adding PP and ES HDC goals together and dividing them by power-play opportunities and high-danger chances gets you a metric we call SNIPES percentage.

The league average for SNIPES is 14.5%. Here's how the last 12 teams to make a conference final fared during the regular season and then in the playoffs:

Is there a correlation to playoff success?

Eleven of the 12 teams in the above table were above average in SNIPES percentage during the regular season. Only last year's Hurricanes came into the playoffs below average. Carolina had the best regular-season xG% and was third during the playoffs, which can make up for low conversion rates for two rounds.

While some teams saw their efficiency drop, just three fell below average: the 2021 Canadiens, 2021 Golden Knights, and 2023 Panthers. Later this week, we'll see how those three managed to thrive in the postseason when we look at how teams keep the puck out of the net.

The lesson? If any of the above teams score more often relative to how many chances they get in the playoffs, it shouldn't come as a total surprise.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.