Value is created in sports betting when other bettors want nothing to do with betting on, or betting against, a team. Prior to the NHL All-Star break, that situation occurred regularly as clubs played with compromised lineups, and oddsmakers couldn't price the favorite low enough.

My, how the tables have turned. In the last four days alone, the positive expected value from the games listed in this space Monday has rolled to an 8-3 record. The real story is in the net gains from swallowing hard and betting on the teams no one else wants.

Those eight wins provided 16.55 units to the positive. After the three losses get deducted from the ledger, a four-day boon of +13.55 may have hit your account.

Is there luck involved with an 8-3 record? Like most NHL game results, yes. The plays above went 2-0 in overtime, which resulted in a swing of 7.2 units to the positive. However, two of the three losses saw our underdog hold the lead going into the second intermission, so they were certainly live to win the game at a valuable price.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

With good results after the All-Star break for our underdogs - gaining nearly 20 units despite a 42-54 record - we'll maintain our weight distribution for our ratings using 70% of this season's metrics with 30% weighted for preseason priors.

With our ratings weighted to this season's on-ice product, we can put more emphasis on team metrics without going all-in on what's happened in a still relatively small sample size that contains some tainted results.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected will be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The NHL's loudest fan base almost found themselves quieted again on Saturday night. The Maple Leafs took a 7-2 lead into the second intermission in Detroit and looked to be cruising to victory as -200 favorites. For those smart enough to bet the over, there was no reason to watch the third period. For those who bet a side, things got interesting after the underdog Red Wings scored four goals in the first 5:21 of the third period.

Unless you're betting the total, it's never over until it's over in the NHL. Of course, if you bet the over on Sunday afternoon in the Oilers-Hurricanes game, you were infuriated by multiple goals getting called back because linesmen were letting offsides go during the action, only to have them disallowed after review.

That was a day after the Oilers won a game they had no business winning. Based on how they played against Florida, the Panthers would have won that game 84% of the time, according to Moneypuck.com.

Basically, if you bet on an Edmonton game this weekend, you had a wilder ride than Leafs fans in the third period on Saturday night. This is the unpredictability of the NHL. As bettors, the best we can do is put ourselves in the best position to be profitable long term by finding the smallest edges where available.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

The first half of this season was a mess as COVID-19 ripped up rosters on a nightly basis. Some games were postponed, while others provided skewed matchups that were nearly impossible to evaluate. With the calendar turning to March and testing policies relaxed, we can weight our ratings using 70% of this season's metrics with 30% weighted for preseason priors.

With our ratings weighted to this season's on-ice product, we can put more emphasis on team metrics without going all-in on what's happened in a still relatively small sample size that contains some tainted results.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected will be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

We saw the rarest of occasions Sunday, and it didn't cause the hockey world to go blind. You've heard of the dangers of looking directly at a solar eclipse, but thankfully, you didn't need a reflective apparatus to witness the "loser eclipse" - the Coyotes (13-37 on the moneyline) and the Canadiens (10-40) both won a hockey game on the same day.

On Friday, we discussed the concept of a No Bet List and how Arizona and Montreal showed red flags before the season started. These should keep us away from them - no matter how much value their preseason priors suggest they had with inflated moneyline prices throughout the campaign.

But when do we consider removing teams from a No Bet List?

Bets on Arizona and Montreal will likely continue to show value this season solely because of the astronomical moneyline payouts that sportsbooks assign. The Canadiens have won two straight but required overtime and the shootout. With 10 straight losses prior to that, we're not ready to remove them from the list just yet.

The Coyotes are 3-4 in February and boast moneyline wins of +430 (at Colorado), +190 (at Seattle), and +225 (vs. Dallas). Even blind-betting the team every game this month would earn back roughly +4.5 units. Better yet, according to our guide, only three of its defeats were deemed valuable bets at the time, which would save that bettor a loss along the way.

While Montreal always shows as a bet - even though we've known since the start of the season that it's not - Arizona's had games that fell within our fair price range. When that happens, we have a stable enough rating on a team to trust a moneyline bet that shows as valuable.

Before we bring the Coyotes back into the fold, however, we need to remember that it's less about whether you should make the bet and more about knowing what you're getting into when you do.

The recipe

Before the campaign, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

Two months ago, I posted my 2021-22 season ratings that use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Since we've gotten through the All-Star break and COVID-19-related roster inconsistencies are fewer and further between, we'll increase the ratio between current season metrics and priors to a 70-30 split.

With our ratings weighted to this season's on-ice product, we can put more emphasis on team metrics without going all-in on what's happened in a still relatively small sample size.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected will be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

It took one week after the All-Star break to make bettors feel better about the NHL. With COVID-19 testing relaxed, rosters have become more reliable on a nightly basis. That's created more valuable bets on underdogs and favorites alike, but it's the big 'dogs that have made the last week the most interesting.

Following our moneyline guide last week would have given you a 9-11 record with the 20 teams that showed value. Though that's not a winning record on the scoreboard, the betting account is all that matters. With wins on the Blue Jackets (+210 at Capitals), Senators (+200 vs. Hurricanes), Devils (+220 at Blues), and Canucks (+175 vs. Maple Leafs), our underdog payouts more than made up for the sub-.500 record, pushing us over five units into the black.

The recipe

Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and how to use that information to create your own moneylines.

When the NHL halted play around Christmas, we shared my 2021-22 season ratings, which use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. In light of all the lineup inconsistency across the league this season, we held firm for the next six weeks, using a 50-50 split between those ratings and the preseason priors via the regular-season point-total markets.

Since the NHL adjusted its COVID-19 testing policies after the All-Star Game, we've moved to a 60-40 split. We're slowly putting more emphasis on team metrics for this season without going all-in on what's happened, given how many teams have played games with severely mismatched roster strength. With the regular-season calendar stretched until the end of April, we'll maintain that ratio for now.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel.

With more than half of the regular season's games in the books, we'll provide this guide twice per week to highlight where the value lies in NHL moneylines. Here's a weeknight look at games played Monday-Thursday this week:

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

On Jan. 14, the visiting Coyotes could be had on the moneyline for as high as +500 against the Avalanche. It was one of the five highest moneyline payouts in the last 20 years. Arizona took a brief third-period lead but lost in a shootout, leaving intrepid underdog bettors just short of a reward for their betting bravery. However, it was a reminder that, even in defeat and at a certain price, there's no such thing as a bad bet.

Sure enough, on the second-to-last night before the All-Star break, the Coyotes returned to Colorado priced at +450 on the moneyline. This time, it took a late game-tying goal for Arizona to force overtime and a subsequent shootout. But unlike three weeks prior, the Coyotes won in a shootout victory. Underdog bettors rejoiced, and there's reason to believe it was a sign of things to come in a season where favorites have won at an unheard-of clip.

The recipe

Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and how to use that information to create your own moneylines.

When the NHL took its hiatus around Christmas, we shared my 2021-22 season ratings, which use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Considering all the lineup inconsistency across the league this season, we held firm for the next six weeks, using a 50-50 split between those ratings and the preseason priors via the regular-season point-total markets.

Since the NHL adjusted its COVID-19 testing policies after the All-Star Game, we'll move to a 60-40 split, slowly putting more emphasis on team metrics for this season while not going all-in on what's happened, given how many games have been played with mismatched roster strength.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The NHL was originally supposed to take two weeks off for the Olympics at the start of February, but the league derailed those plans. Instead of Beijing, the sport's top players will head to Las Vegas during the weekend of February 4-6.

As a result, we've got an extended edition of the weekly moneyline betting guide. The natural break - and the NHL's announcement about pulling back on the COVID-19 testing afterward - can give us a better idea of who's going to be in the lineup each night, and that will be a welcome change in a season that has frustrated bettors looking for roster certainty.

The recipe

Before the campaign, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and how to use that information to create your own moneylines.

Five weeks ago, we shared my 2021-22 campaign ratings, which use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Considering all the lineup inconsistency across the league, I'll continue to rely on a 50-50 split between those ratings and the preseason priors via the regular-season point-total markets. This provides a more consistent base for assessing teams in the future rather than allowing mismatches generated by COVID-19 to pollute the numbers.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the club more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a side on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

"So you're telling me there's a chance ..."

The infamous and excessively repeated line from "Dumb and Dumber" hasn't felt all that applicable this NHL season, as favorites have been winning at an alarming rate. That trend is due partly to frequent matchups between teams ravaged by COVID-19 and squads that are unscathed at that moment. The moneyline rises to a level that would normally be absurd, the undermanned team predictably loses, and the price tag on the favorite is validated.

Then came the Coyotes' road game against the Avalanche last Friday. Arizona's largely anonymous lineup reached as high as +500 before closing at +460 - making the visiting team one of the five biggest underdogs in the last 15 seasons. NHL bettors bet the Coyotes on principle and deserved better. With the game tied and headed to a shootout, it felt like they had a chance.

The point here is that once player health and lineup predictability stabilize somewhat, there should be a belief that as long as there's value in the bet - no matter the price - any team does, in fact, have a chance.

Last week, we stated the true (pre-vig) moneyline for Arizona's trip to Colorado should have been Coyotes +252/Avalanche -252. All we can do is tell you what the true moneyline (without vig) should be and the price at which we would bet each team. After that, any major discrepancy should lead to some quick research into why it might exist. Bettors can then adjust their risk tolerance based on their findings.

The recipe

Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and how to use that information to create your own moneylines.

Four weeks ago, we shared my 2021-22 season ratings, which use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Considering all the lineup inconsistency across the league this season, I'll continue to rely on a 50-50 split between those ratings and the preseason priors via the regular-season point-total markets. This provides a more consistent base for assessing teams in the future, rather than allowing mismatches generated by COVID-19 to pollute the numbers.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

This is supposed to be a weekly exercise in determining a valuable price for a team we're looking to bet on in each game that week. With NHL rosters a complete mess, however, it's become more of a warning system for lineup lunacy.

At first glance, you might think you're getting the deal of the century on the Seattle Kraken's Monday night visit to the Colorado Avalanche, as the Kraken hover around +325 on the moneyline - a price that's almost 15% higher than it normally would be (around +200). That should set off alarm bells.

A bit of research will tell you Seattle is returning from an eight-day COVID-19 layoff, while the Avalanche seem to have hit their stride lately. The Kraken have lost five straight and already fell 7-3 to Colorado this season, so under normal circumstances, the Kraken only had a 37% chance to win the game. With a probable loss, we may never know how the break truly affected Seattle's win probability.

What we can do is tell you what the true moneyline (without vig) should be and the moneyline price where we would bet each team. After that, any big discrepancy should lead you to do a quick search into why it might exist, and you can adjust how much risk you're willing to take based on your findings.

The recipe

Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

Three weeks ago, we posted my 2021-22 season ratings, which use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Considering all this lineup inconsistency, I'm going to continue to use an even 50-50 split between those ratings and the preseason priors via the regular-season point-total markets. This gives me a more consistent base for assessing teams in the future, rather than allowing the numbers to be significantly polluted by COVID-generated mismatches.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected near a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to be a worthwhile wager. Also, I have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Like testing the waters of a bubbling hot tub, we're dipping our toe back into the NHL season. While we're at peak levels of uncertainty these days, it's still worth wading through the cloudy picture of the daily schedule to project the moneylines for the games this week - with the obvious caveat that the rosters can change quite literally at any time.

The recipe

Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

Two weeks ago, we posted my 2021-22 season ratings that use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Considering the forced and longer-than-usual break the NHL had over the holidays, we'll use an even 50-50 split between those ratings and the pre-season priors via the regular-season point-total markets.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected near a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to be a worthwhile wager. Also, I have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

This chart is a good reference to determine whether you're truly getting value betting on one side or the other. However, keep in mind that new injuries or lineup issues will naturally arise. So if you notice a big discrepancy, make sure to do a quick search for any major lineup issues for the team you want to bet on.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

That escalated quickly. With the NHL on pause over the holidays, we have an opportunity to catch our breath and evaluate where teams stand through the first third of the season.

I've rated each team based on analytics I value, which are heavily weighted toward even-strength play and therefore don't account for factors like injuries or illnesses. I then use the ratings to create my weekly projected moneylines, as explained here.

The following ratings measure a team's strength relative to average, which holds a rating of 1.00. The greater the number, the stronger the team.

The Panthers have played the best hockey this season and can be considered 17% better than an average team, despite being three points behind the Hurricanes for first in the NHL standings. At 18-11 on the moneyline, Florida has played better than its betting record indicates.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Canadiens are the worst-rated team at 19% below league average. This isn't a shock if you've bet on the Habs, as they're 7-24 on the moneyline.

The Kings are the biggest surprise. With their 14-11-5 record, they're on pace to surpass their projected 84 points. If they keep performing - and win more in overtime - they can be even more profitable on the moneyline.

The Islanders are the biggest disappointments relative to the point total market. However, the Isles may have an excuse for their 8-18 moneyline record: They started the season with an extended road trip while awaiting a move to their new arena.

We can use these ratings, along with our preseason priors, to create a predictive model that'll help us make positive expected value bets for the remainder of the season.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.