The Rangers and Flyers meet Wednesday night, with each team playing the second game of a back-to-back. The Flyers will have played in Washington, while the Rangers will have hosted the Hurricanes. Although Philadelphia is the host, both teams will have an element of overnight travel going into the game. That should cancel out the marginal adjustment we make for teams playing back-to-back games.

The next variable we use to make our own moneylines is home-ice advantage. While we rely on a larger sample size to calculate that, let's take a glance at what each team has done at home versus on the road this season.

Based on this season's results, the Rangers are 8% less likely to win a road game, while the Flyers are 7% more likely to win at home.

In a neutral situation, the Flyers' season-long metrics suggest they're closer to the Rangers than we'd think. However, we know better, having followed the two teams this campaign.

The Flyers have gotten progressively worse throughout the season, recording just four wins since dealing their captain, Claude Giroux. Between the pipes, Carter Hart (minus-1.5) and Martin Jones (minus-5.5) have been subpar in goals saved above average.

Conversely, the Rangers have ridden the back of Vezina-favorite Igor Shesterkin (35.5 GSAA) to a 34-14 moneyline record in his starts.

The key element in pricing this game relates to its back-to-back nature - but not due to rest. Instead, with the Rangers facing another playoff team in the Hurricanes on Tuesday night, they're likely to play Shesterkin at home and then go with backup goaltender Alexandar Georgiev (12-11 on the moneyline this season) in Philadelphia.

By the time moneyline prices open Tuesday night, we'll know who's in net for New York and have a better idea of how likely it is Philadelphia repeats what it managed to do April 3 - beat the Rangers.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 85% of our total rating. Basing 15% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Wednesday, April 13

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Two weeks remain in the NHL season, and the entire Eastern Conference is playing out the string with a 15-point gap between the final playoff team and the first team out. How that great divide will affect games between now and April 29 is anyone's guess, so bettors should tread lightly.

Meanwhile, things are heating up out west. With eight points separating six teams fighting for the wild card spots, it won't just be bettors keeping an eye on scoreboards. Tuesday night's feature in the wild Western Conference is a matchup between the Golden Knights and Canucks.

The Canucks took three out of four available points in a home-and-home with Vegas earlier in April and have won three straight to bolster their playoff hopes. However, the Golden Knights are 7-3 on the moneyline in their last 10 games.

Before even looking at the metrics, the situation and the way these two teams are fighting to climb the standings suggest a game that could go either way and should be priced as something of a coin flip.

The Canucks will continue a sweep-able homestand after Tuesday's matchup, while the Golden Knights will carry on to Alberta for games against better teams. What happens during this section of the schedule will drastically affect both clubs' playoff hopes. On Tuesday night, with each side needing to amplify its play from regular season to "playoff hockey," we'll get a strong indication if bettors can find value trusting or fading these two teams going forward.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Tuesday, April 12

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if our team ratings don't account for something - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do Not Bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

After what'll be a busy weekend in the NHL, we'll have an opportunity to evaluate how our bets do Monday, with just one game on the slate. Most astute bettors track their wins and losses to see how they do over the long term, which isn't the same as evaluating bets.

The two Canadian franchises in the Original Six went on the road Thursday night and found victory, albeit in different ways.

The Toronto Maple Leafs went to Dallas and outshot the Stars 41-18. Social media buzzed about Auston Matthews having more shots on goal than the entire Dallas team at one point. The Stars forced overtime, which Matthews won during three-on-three play. If you didn't know any better - or if you still swear by 1990s "metrics" - you'd think the Leafs dominated and should have won handily.

An evaluation of the advanced metrics suggests that their narrow win was a fairer result based on expected goals.

Meanwhile, the Montreal Canadiens went to New Jersey and racked up a season-high seven goals in a 7-4 win. Regardless of whether you look at the old-school shots-on-goal tally or peek into the advanced metrics, the play on the ice suggests a different story.

Aside from a few goaltenders having career years, there isn't much separating most goalies on a game-to-game basis. Juuse Saros is seventh in the NHL with a save percentage of 92.07. Jake Allen is 29th with 90.6%. That 1.47% gap equates to less than half a goal per game.

Andrew Hammond got his second start for the Devils - against the team that gave him his first start in three years earlier this season. He's 98th in save percentage this season out of 107 goaltenders who've seen the crease.

The Devils' skaters and bettors deserved better, but when a team starts a goaltender who isn't NHL quality, this type of thing can happen. Coincidentally, the New Jersey heads to Dallas on Saturday. Who the Devils have between the pipes will matter more than usual.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

If there's one axiom we've tried to push in this space, it's "You just never know."

You'd be hard-pressed to find a more impressive back-to-back result than what the Detroit Red Wings pulled off Tuesday and Wednesday. It was also the most unlikely.

The Wings (+160) were gracious hosts when, after six straight losses, they spotted the Bruins a pair of first-period goals at Little Caesars Arena.

But to say the Red Wings flipped a switch and ran the Bruins off the ice would be disingenuous. Although Detroit scored the next four goals on the way to a 5-3 skid-snapping victory, the star of the game was goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic, who made 47 saves.

It's easy to write that off as a hot goaltender stealing a win, and with the Red Wings playing in Winnipeg the next night, the schedule spot seemed problematic. That was reflected in their +230 moneyline price, which was only a 6% value on our +175 fair-price projection.

Seven points out of a playoff spot with 12 games to go, the Jets should be desperate. Perhaps that narrative caused the small overcorrection in valuation.

The Jets were probably the better team in terms of creating scoring chances, but it was Thomas Greiss' turn to backstop the Red Wings to victory. While the score was 3-1, the expected goals suggested a slight edge to the Jets. At the big moneyline payout, win or lose, Detroit was a good bet. The hard part was ignoring the factors that would convince you not to make it.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Thursday, April 8

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if our team ratings don't account for something - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do Not Bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Every team has its price - whether it's to bet on or against. That said, you're going to have to make a very convincing argument to get me to fade the Florida Panthers.

Maybe that argument is that they've found themselves facing seemingly insurmountable deficits twice in the last week. Unfortunately for anyone brave enough to step in front of the Cats' wagon, they surmounted both. Down 6-2 in New Jersey through two periods, the Panthers scored four times in the third frame to force overtime and an eventual 7-6 win. Then on Tuesday night, they came back from 5-1 down to beat the Maple Leafs in overtime.

It's the highest compliment to the Panthers that - when down by four goals to a team as good as Toronto - they were deemed to have as high as a 5% win probability in some metrics. Florida's proven that you'll need to watch all 60 minutes (or more) of its games, as no deficit is safe for its opponents.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Thursday, April 7

Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something is unaccounted for in our team ratings - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

"Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in," Michael Corleone said in "The Godfather Part III."

The famous quote reflects how value-based NHL bettors must feel about a handful of teams that seem ready to lose interest but score a surprising win every once in a while as they play out the string.

After a rough stretch for underdogs last week, this past weekend saw them bark back. Few would have much interest in backing the Canadiens (+260) at the Lightning on Saturday night or the Coyotes (+170), Flyers (+240), and Kraken (+135) on Sunday.

It just goes to show that you can't give up on a cohort of teams that had a rough March. The Coyotes had a six-game losing streak last month but still managed profitability, keeping this group near even on your betting ledger.

Betting on the four worst teams in the league would have resulted in a 22-34 record on the moneyline but just a marginal loss. Four days into April, this collective is 4-4 with a net profit of 4.25 units to the positive. Whether you're actually on the team or merely betting on the team, there's nothing fun about losing. But like a high-end Zamboni, the moneyline odds are there to smooth out the playing surface.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Wednesday, April 6

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something is unaccounted for in our team ratings - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do Not Bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

For the third straight year, the Stanley Cup Playoffs will start later than hockey fans are accustomed to. With the calendar's turn to April still leaving a month's worth of play, let's lay out our predictive power ratings for all 32 teams.

In order to read the power ratings, the first step is understanding that an average team would be 1.0. A club with a 1.16 rating, for example, is 16% better than an average team, while a club with a .82 rating is 18% worse. All ratings are an indication of what to expect from a club going forward and have nothing to do with its record in the standings.

The Panthers lead the way despite being second in the overall standings, but there's more intrigue down the list. The Rangers have gotten Vezina-quality goaltending from Igor Shesterkin, which has driven their placement in the standings. However, that's more difficult to sustain than quality team play.

The Hurricanes have gotten similarly great goaltending from Frederik Andersen. They also banked points early in the season to augment their place in the standings. On the flip side, the Islanders had a horrific start, but their rating here indicates they're better than their record.

The Oilers are rated much higher than their mediocre standing this season. Bet on Connor McDavid and Co. like a middle-of-the-pack team at your own risk. The Devils are also rated higher than their record, though they're on a different tier. New Jersey is closer to mediocre despite being in the bottom six. A strong finish is there for the Devils if they bring the effort required to compete this month.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

With the calendar turning to April, this season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 85% of our total rating. Basing 15% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel, and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold. For bigger underdogs, you may decide on a higher cutoff like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected to be a near-coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager.

Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices offered by the market. From there, compile a list of wagers. The only reason not to make a bet is if something isn't accounted for in how we've rated teams - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

A philosophical question to ponder before your hockey betting this weekend: If every game goes to overtime, should anyone be a favorite or an underdog?

We may hyperbolize about every contest needing complimentary hockey to find a winner, but three more valuable underdogs sat drawn with their opponent at the end of regulation Wednesday. Unfortunately, all of them lost in overtime or the shootout.

The short-term variance of 3-on-3 and the breakaway competition is supposed to benefit a bettor getting a plus-money price. However, as it occasionally can, the sample size has bit our guide's valuable side nine straight times - a fact that sounds like a cruel April Fools' Day prank.

The Sabres themselves have lost three games in extra time in the last week alone, only broken up by their amazing comeback win over the Blackhawks. Does that mean Buffalo shouldn't be a bet at an average price of better than +180? Of course not. The fact that the Sabres continuously play in games that could go either way proves they are a valuable bet at such a good payout - even if the result is sub-optimal for a young team that has refused to lay down late in the season.

It's never easy to chalk things up to variance - a fancier term for luck. However, studies have shown that there's very little correlation between a team's record in regulation and its record in 3-on-3 overtime and the shootout. The best bettors can do is continue to put themselves in position to win over the long-term, and getting plus-money bets into overtime is one way to do that.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Friday, April 1

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something is unaccounted for in our team ratings - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do Not Bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves have created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Intrepid Flames bettors got a good price in their game against the Avalanche on Tuesday night - if they got to it fast enough. The Flames opened as short favorites, but by the time the puck dropped at the Saddledome, they were as high as -145 on the moneyline.

The reason for that was simple. Nathan MacKinnon was announced as a scratch that morning, which sent the Avalanche from +100 to +125. When we take those moneylines and convert them to implied win probabilities, the Avs go from 50% to win the game to 44.4%.

Instantly, we know how the market values one of the best players in the game - the Avalanche are deemed 5.6% less likely to win when MacKinnon is out. Whether you believe that's too high or low is up to you as a bettor, as you decide which side to back.

You might think 5.6% is an insult to a player of MacKinnon's stature. I might suggest that it's a compliment to the depth of Colorado, that missing a top-five player in the league would only hurt its chances of winning by less than 6%. Losing someone like MacKinnon for a game would matter more to a team that wasn't capable of making up for his absence.

The Avalanche were 12-3 (80%) on the moneyline in 15 games without MacKinnon before Tuesday night's contest in Calgary. Meanwhile, they are 34-17 with him - a 66% win rate. No one is suggesting that the Avalanche are better without MacKinnon. It's a small sample size that's causing high variance. However, looking at it this way allows us to understand that a 5% adjustment is appropriate.

As far as one game goes, the Avs overcame the absence for a tight 2-1 win. That shouldn't change how the market views Colorado, but we'll need to be on our toes about whether MacKinnon plays against the Sharks on Thursday. At least we know now what to expect from a line adjustment if he doesn't.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold. For bigger underdogs, you may decide on a higher cutoff like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager.

Thursday, March 31

Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices offered by your various sportsbooks. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something isn't accounted for in how we've rated teams - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

You don't need an elaborate study to understand that traveling on a back-to-back impacts a team's win probability in the second game. All you need is a semi-reliable rating on a team and oddsmakers will tell you how much they adjust for the scheduling spot.

In this space, a 5% downgrade in win probability is how we adjust for a team playing on the second night of a back-to-back with travel. Whether that manifests itself on a game-to-game basis is something of an unanswerable question. Players and coaches might mention its effect after a loss, but when they win a game in that same spot, there's no need for excuses.

How does travel affect a game? A logical case can be made that it's hard to get the legs going at the beginning, putting a team at a disadvantage early. It's equally logical to argue that it's the third period when players might find themselves more tired than usual.

That brings us to the Sabres-Blackhawks game in Chicago on Monday night. Based on the example from Monday's guide, Chicago was worth a bet at -163 or shorter as we gave it a 63% chance to beat Buffalo, which played in New York on Sunday.

The consensus moneyline for the Blackhawks was -150, which triggered a bet, and with a 4-0 Hawks lead early in the second period, that bet seemed safe. The Sabres could have easily chalked it up as a schedule loss. Instead, they pulled off arguably the biggest comeback of the entire season by scoring with just shy of 11 seconds left for a 6-5 win.

Since the Sabres are usually undervalued, their +130 price on the moneyline suggests it didn't account for a scheduling disadvantage. Buffalo played two previous back-to-backs in March with polar opposite results - a 1-0 win at red-hot Calgary, and a 6-1 loss to Florida on a home back-to-back.

Does the Sabres' youth make them more capable than the average team of overcoming the scheduling disadvantage? Or are the Blackhawks just that incapable? Those are some of the questions that Chicago backers never would have thought to ask 22 minutes into Monday night's game.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold. For bigger underdogs, you may decide on a higher cutoff like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager.

Wednesday, March 30

Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices offered by your various sportsbooks. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something isn't accounted for in how we've rated teams - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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