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Here is a look at the Squad Up daily NHL fantasy picture for Tuesday, April 4 (all advanced statistics courtesy of Corsica.Hockey and apply to 5v5 situations):
Dynamic Duos
- LW Nick Foligno (46K) & RW Cam Atkinson (53K), Blue Jackets (at Penguins): The Penguins rank 29th with 3.08 expected goals allowed per 60 minutes since March 4. They've had a negative differential in both possession and expected goals over this past month, and they've allowed a league-worst 19.71 scoring chances per 60 minutes. The Blue Jackets' top line played 30.49 percent of 5v5 minutes last time out.
- LW Filip Forsberg (72K) & C Ryan Johansen (73K), Predators (vs. Islanders): The Islanders have allowed 10.31 scoring chances per 60 minutes over the past month and have averaged just 42.86 percent of all scoring chances. The Predators have averaged 8.33 SCF60 with an expected conversion rate of 2.54 goals per 60 minutes. Forsberg's on a three-game point streak with 10 shots on goal.
- LW Alexander Steen (68K) & RW Vladimir Tarasenko (96K), Blues (vs. Jets): LW Jaden Schwartz is the third piece of the Blues' top line, but he is slightly more expensive than Steen. Opting for the lower ceiling of Steen allows for a non-minimum salary goaltender. The Jets have allowed 10.08 scoring chances per 60 minutes over the past month, and St. Louis averages 10.17 chances of their own on home ice.
(Photo courtesy Action Images)
Goalie Breakdown
- TARGET - Pekka Rinne (115K), Predators (vs. Islanders): The Islanders have averaged more than 30 shots on goal per 60 minutes over the past month, but they're turning those into just 7.74 scoring chances and 2.33 expected goals. Rinne should be able to pad his nightly stat line with some low-difficulty saves.
- BARGAIN - Braden Holtby (79K), Capitals (at Maple Leafs): The Maple Leafs own an 8-1-1 record over their past 10 games, but they'll be playing on the second half of a back-to-back. They made the short trip back home from Buffalo, but they'll be facing a rested Capitals team. Washington is already the second-ranked team in Corsi For percentage over the past month.
- FADE - Matt Murray (118K), Penguins (vs. Blue Jackets): The Penguins' depleted defense corps has led to the team's 3.08 expected goals against per 60 minutes over the past month. Murray has allowed 10 goals in his past three starts in which he faced a total of 100 SOG. He has the potential for a high save total, but he should be avoided against an elite offense.
- CONTRARIAN - Keith Kinkaid (93K), Devils (vs. Flyers): The Flyers rank in the top-third of the league with 8.87 scoring chances per 60 minutes over the past month, but they've converted those to just 2.38 expected goals. Kinkaid stopped 70 of 74 shots faced in his past two starts.
(Photo courtesy Action Images)
Bargain Plays
- LW Matthew Tkachuk (30K), Flames (at Ducks): Tkachuk played on a line with C Mikael Backlund and RW Michael Frolik which played a team-high 28.8 percent of the 5v5 minutes in Calgary's most recent game. The Ducks have been expected to allow 2.62 goals per 60 minutes over the past month.
- C Nick Schmaltz (28K), Blackhawks (at Avalanche): Schmaltz has gone without a point in each of his past two games, but he played over 18 minutes for the first time since March 19, his last time out. He remains beside C Jonathan Toews and has an extremely favorable matchup.
- RW Mikko Rantanen (25K), Avalanche (vs. Blackhawks): Blackhawks G Corey Crawford owns a 2.80 goals against average on the road this season with a save percentage of just .911. Rantanen remains beside C Nathan MacKinnon at 5v5, with their line playing 26.63 percent of the available minutes last time out. Rantanen had three SOG in each of his past three games.
(Photo courtesy Action Images)
Top Fades
- D Dustin Byfuglien (52K), Jets (at Blues): Byfuglien is on track for his lowest full-season goal total since his first with the Jets in 2011-12. He is on pace for a career high in assists but his shot counts have also dwindled. St. Louis is one of the league's top defensive teams on home ice, allowing just 25.73 SOG and only 3.94 scoring chances per 60 minutes.
- RW Phil Kessel (60K), Penguins (vs. Blue Jackets): Kessel has been held without a goal since March 17. He has tallied five assists during the slump, but his price is much more reflective of a steady goal scorer. He faces the league's top goaltender, Tuesday, diminishing any appeal in a slump buster.
- LW Patrick Marleau (54K), Sharks (vs. Canucks): While he was beside C Joe Pavelski, Marleau played just 13.5 percent of the 5v5 minutes in San Jose's most recent game. Owners are better off spending a little extra for Pavelski with playing time and opportunity limited for both forwards.
(Photo courtesy Getty Images)
Contrarian Options
- LW Jeff Skinner (50K), Hurricanes (at Wild): Skinner has goals in two of his past three games since his scoring streak was snapped. He had at least three SOG in five of his past six games. The matchup will deter many owners, but Skinner remains matchup proof while carrying the scoring load for the Hurricanes.
- D Kevin Shattenkirk (37K), Capitals (at Maple Leafs): Shattenkirk has six assists in his past five games, and he has six power-play assists since joining the Capitals. Washington ranks third in power-play percentage. The Maple Leafs have a top-10 penalty-kill percentage, but they could be prone to taking a few more penalties while on the second half of a back-to-back.
- C Joe Pavelski (86K), Sharks (vs. Canucks): As noted above, Pavelski's 5v5 ice time has fluctuated of late, but he maintains consistent TOI totals with heavy power-play usage. He was held without a shot his last time out, but he notched three or more SOG in each of his previous three games.
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