Canadiens’ Dach done for season with torn ACL, MCL

Montreal Canadiens forward Kirby Dach will miss the remainder of the 2023-24 season after sustaining tears to his ACL and MCL in his right knee, the team announced Tuesday.

Dach suffered the injury early in Saturday's win over the Chicago Blackhawks. He logged only 4:40 of ice time in the contest, exiting after being hit into the opposition's bench by defenseman Jarred Tinordi.

The 23-year-old registered two assists in two games this campaign before being sidelined. An injury limited Dach to 58 games last season, and he's appeared in 212 NHL contests since being drafted third overall by the Blackhawks in 2019.

Montreal acquired Dach in July 2022 for a pair of draft picks. He signed a four-year, $13.45-million contract with the Canadiens shortly after.

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Post Game: A Flat Performance in Philly

Sat Shah and Bik Nizzar breakdown a 2-0 loss for Vancouver at the hands of the Philadelphia Flyers.Hear from Head Coach Rick Tocchet and Captain Quinn Hughes. Plus Randip Janda provides his analysis. 

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Tocchet slams Canucks’ effort vs. Flyers: ‘Who are we to think we’re anybody?’

It's a good thing Rick Tocchet didn't order those Stanley Cup rings.

Less than a week after the Vancouver Canucks head coach delivered a memorable quote in the aftermath of a dominant season-opening win, he spoke with similar conviction to summarize a disappointing effort against the Philadelphia Flyers.

"It's a good lesson," Tocchet said after the 2-0 loss Tuesday. "Who are we to think we're anybody?"

The Canucks suffered their first loss of the young season in the Flyers' home opener, and the game wasn't as close as the scoreline indicated. Philadelphia outshot Vancouver 42-25 while controlling 68.6% of expected goals and 56.2% of shot attempts at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick.

"I can't even pick one guy who played well other than (goaltender Thatcher) Demko," Tocchet said. "He was unreal. He was great tonight, and the rest of the guys weren't."

The coach added: "We just got some guys, they better pick it up. I don't like using the word 'soft,' but I didn't see guys competing at all, and that's alarming."

The Canucks won their first two games of the season - each against the Edmonton Oilers - by a combined score of 12-4. Their next opportunity to find the win column again comes Thursday against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

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October 17 2023 – John Shannon & Vanni Sartini

Matt and Blake discuss the Canucks' 2-0 start, line-matching with Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller, the game in Philadelphia, the players who have not yet scored, the penalty-killing personnel, the Jack Rathbone trade and peek ahead at the game in Tampa Thursday.

John Shannon stops by with his thoughts on the undefeated Canucks, the team's identity under Rick Tocchet and Adam Foote, what it will take for Pettersson to win over eastern voters for league awards, and the marketing lift that North Van's Connor Bedard has already gotten the league.

Vanni Sartini joins to discuss the team's regular-season finale Saturday against LAFC, the stakes at-hand, the possibilities for playoff-seeding, and the Canadians national team's vacant head coaching position. Presented by Applewood Auto Group.

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NHL weekly betting guide: Overrated, underrated teams after 1 week

Like any other sport, the second week of the season gives you two options for how to view each team in the context of betting:

  • Bet on the market's overreaction to a team's start - good or bad
  • Bet that the market hasn't reacted to how a team has played

Below, we provide the prices to bet each team, but what if those prices aren't far off from what's available? That means oddsmakers have continued to tie their team ratings to priors from before the season.

The two-to-three-game sample size is too small, but it's worth knowing who's excelling in our key even-strength metrics (expected goals share, high-danger chance share) because you want to be ahead of the market in sports betting.

If you wait, by the time you're ready to believe in a specific team, the market will likely have caught up to adjust their rating, and their moneyline prices will no longer be particularly valuable. It's too early to claim each team as a matter of fact, but it's worth asking the question.

Are they underrated?

TEAM XG% HDC%
Jets 68.2 68.6
Rangers 62.9 63.5
Predators 56.5 53.2
Red Wings 56.2 59.5
Coyotes 53.2 52.5
Canadiens 52.4 64.0

Each of these teams has outplayed their rating early this season, with either dominant five-on-five play or, in the case of the Coyotes and Canadiens, better-than-average even-strength play for a team expected to be poor. Interestingly, these teams have combined for just an 8-7 record. It's a nice combination of early-season profitability, while none of them have been so good as to have the market drastically change its opinion of them.

Are they overrated?

TEAM XG% HDC%
Capitals 35.6 28.6
Lightning 37.0 44.9
Canucks 38.8 31.6
Wild 43.2 37.8
Hurricanes 48.1 43.2
Devils 50.3 47.7

The Capitals weren't expected to be good, but their five-on-five metrics are terrible. They won in a shootout on Monday, which might mask a bad team going forward. Outside of a dominant first period and good power-play conversion rates in the season opener, the Lightning have struggled.

This group has gone 8-6 to start the season, only profitable because of the underdog prices cashed with the Canucks' two wins over the Oilers. However, with these underlying numbers, it's possible they took advantage of Edmonton's goaltending, which is more than a little questionable.

The Hurricanes and Devils have lingered around mediocrity in their even-strength metrics, but as the top two teams in the regular-season win total market, much more was expected from them.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

  • True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
  • True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
  • True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the impact a player has on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

DATE GAME WIN PROB (%). PRICE TO BET
Oct. 17 VAN@OTT 54/46 VAN -115/PHI +140
MIN@MTL 60/40 MIN -146/MTL +181
TBL@BUF 49/51 TBL +117/BUF +105
ARI@NYI 35/65 ARI +220/NYI -176
LAK@WPG 52/48 LAK +102/WPG +119
EDM@NSH 57/43 EDM -129/NSH +159
COL@SEA 54/46 COL -115/SEA +140
DAL@VGS 49/51 DAL +117/VGS +105
CAR@SJS 69/31 CAR -217/SJS +276
Oct. 18 WSH@OTT 43/57 WSH +154/OTT -125
PIT@DET 54/46 PIT -111/DET +136
Oct. 19 NSH@NYR 39/61 NSH +187/NYR -151
TOR@FLA 51/49 TOR +105/FLA +117
CGY@BUF 48/52 CGY +119/BUF +102
VAN@TBL 43/57  VAN +154/TBL -125
EDM@PHI 64/36 EDM -168/PHI +209
VGS@WPG 52/48 VGS +102/WPG +120
ARI@STL 42/58 ARI +166/STL -135
LAK@MIN 48/52 LAK +119/MIN +103
CAR@SEA 54/46 CAR -112/SEA +138
DAL@ANA 67/33 DAL -192/ANA +242
BOS@SJS 64/36 BOS -173/SJS +216
CHI@COL 27/73 CHI +343/COL -263
Oct. 20 CGY@CBJ 58/42 CGY -130/CBJ +160
NJD@NYI 54/46 NJD -112/NYI +138
Oct. 21 DET@OTT 43/57 DET +158/OTT -129
ANA@ARI 41/59 ANA +170/ARI -138
NYI@BUF 41/59 NYI +170/BUF -138
VAN@FLA 41/59 VAN +172/FLA -139
WSH@MTL 53/47 WSH -109/MTL +133
TOR@TB 52/48 TOR +102/TB +120
SJS@NSH 35/65 SJS +225/NSH -179
VGS@CHI 63/37 VGS -165/CHI +205
CBJ@MIN 33/67 CBJ +240/MIN -191
PHI@DAL 30/70 PHI +291/DAL -227
PIT@STL 53/47 PIT -109/STL +133
CAR@COL 47/53 CAR +135/COL -110
WPG@EDM 38/62 WPG +194/EDM -156
NYR@SEA 51/49 NYR +107/SEA +115
BOS@LAK 46/54 BOS +140/LAK -114
Oct. 22 CGY@DET 56/44 CGY -122/DET +150
BOS@ANA 67/33 BOS -192/ANA +242
Oct. 23 MTL@BUF 35/65 MTL +225/BUF -179

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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NHL Tuesday player props: Dahlin to strike vs. Lightning

We have a juicy nine-game slate ahead of us on Tuesday night. Let's take a closer look at a few plays that pop off the page as we look to rebound from a disappointing 1-2 evening.

Rasmus Dahlin over 2.5 shots

Dahlin has been a one-man shooting gallery in the early going of this season. He attempted 18 shots through only two games, which comfortably leads the Sabres. Dahlin didn't have one abnormally high game to skew the numbers, either. He's attempted at least eight shots each time out, which is usually more than enough to soar past a 2.5-shot line.

Beyond the volume, there are a couple of reasons I really like Dahlin in this spot. The Lightning have struggled mightily to defend, owning a league-worst 33% expected goals share through three contests while allowing shots at one of the highest clips in the NHL.

That the Sabres are winless through a pair of games could help as well. You can't earn a playoff spot in October, but you can lose one. We're still early, but the Sabres - who are expected to be a bubble team - can only spot opponents so much of a head start before they really get into trouble.

I expect Dahlin to get all the ice he can handle and take it upon himself to get involved and make something happen offensively.

Odds: -115 (playable to -130)

Evan Bouchard over 2.5 shots

I'm all-in on Bouchard this year. With Tyson Barrie out of the picture, Bouchard now quarterbacks a historically good power-play unit on a full-time basis while also playing a ton of minutes at even strength.

The workload he'll carry on a nightly basis is going to be enormous. We're already seeing that, with Bouchard logging 24 minutes or more in each game thus far.

Bouchard attempted at least eight shots in each contest. That was enough for him to breeze past his over both times, as the gifted offensive defenseman registered five shots against the Canucks twice in a row.

The Predators are giving up a healthy chunk of shot volume but are doing a great job of keeping most of it to the outside. That should benefit Bouchard, who'll be hovering around the perimeter for about 40% of the game.

Odds: -125 (playable to -135)

Filip Forsberg over 3.5 shots

Forsberg finally has an offensive-minded head coach in Andrew Brunette, and he's making the most of it. The dynamic sniper has been an offensive force, recording three points and attempting at least 11 shots in each of his three games. That's absurd volume.

Although the Oilers have done a good job of limiting shot volume, they struggled mightily against another goal-scoring winger in Brock Boeser. He tallied five points and nine shots on goal over the home-and-home to start the year.

Forsberg is routinely playing 20 minutes a night, which is a new norm for him, and he's one of the most efficient shot-generators in the league. I expect he'll find a way to get his share of shots, especially if the Oilers - who are favored - can get a lead and force the Predators to push for offense.

Odds: +114 (playable to -120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Devils bench Meier, 2 others in loss to Panthers: ‘We need more’ from group

New Jersey Devils star Timo Meier was among three players head coach Lindy Ruff stapled to the bench for the third period of Monday's 4-3 loss to the Florida Panthers.

Meier, along with Curtis Lazar and John Marino, only played one shift in the final stanza. Ruff said it was his decision to not play the trio, but pointed to Meier's lack of discipline during the game as a reason he didn't see the ice.

"Can't take the penalties he took," Ruff said after the contest.

Meier was assessed two tripping minors in a span of 4:18 during the second period. He finished with one shot in 11:29 of ice time and is now pointless through three regular-season games after signing an eight-year, $70.4-million extension over the summer.

While Meier is the most notable name to be sat, Ruff was adamant the loss wasn't due to a single player.

"We need more out of a lot of guys," Ruff said. "This isn't about one guy. When we start the game, there's 18 guys that are playing. We need more out of our group."

The Devils surrendered the first four goals in Monday's contest before their late comeback effort fell short. New Jersey is now 1-1-1 on the year with its next game coming Friday against the New York Islanders.

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Increased Defensive Structure Evident For Canucks

Dan and Sat discuss the opportunity the Canucks have now to win multiple games on the road and give themselves a solid starting record before they return home. Irfaan Gaffar then joins the show as he praises what looks to be a new version of the Canucks + the guys all talk some football after a busy NFL Sunday.  

This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe and Ben Basran.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.