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Many pre-playoff Conn Smythe candidates have been weeded out with the conference finals set to begin. Some interesting contenders remain in the Stanley Cup Playoffs' final four, but - like the championship market - there's no clear favorite.

Conn Smythe odds

With no runaway scorer or generational goaltending performance, there's almost no chance this year's Conn Smythe winner doesn't come from the champion. So, let's look at where the value lies for each team and their odds to win the Cup.

Rangers (+350)

The Rangers have five forwards within four points of each other. Artemi Panarin's (+2500) regular-season prowess has earned him enough respect to have the shortest odds of the group. Chris Kreider (+6000), who leads the league in power-play goals this postseason, is the value play. However, Igor Shesterkin's numbers (9.09 GSAx) compare to 2021 Conn Smythe winner Andrei Vasilevskiy. Shesterkin will have to continue that play for the underdog Rangers to win the Cup.

The drawback to backing Shesterkin (+450) is that his odds aren't far enough off from the Rangers' +350 odds to claim the title. That means you'd be taking on the risk that New York wins and one of its scorers steals the award in the next two rounds for minimal extra payout.

Panthers (+225)

We steered clear from backing any Panthers before the playoffs. Here's how their top candidates' odds have changed with Florida the Eastern Conference Final favorite:

There's still plenty of value on your Panther of choice. Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk have a small points lead on their teammates, but Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe are capable of getting plenty of big tallies as they're first and third, respectively, on Florida in playoff shots on goal. Sergei Bobrovsky needs to pick up his play significantly to reach the statistical threshold of past winning goaltenders.

Oilers (+280)

The question here will always be, "Can the Oilers win the Stanley Cup without Connor McDavid being their most valuable player?"

He's kept his teammates in contention with just two goals so far in the playoffs, but anyone watching Edmonton knows McDavid drives most of the team's offense with his playmaking and the attention he receives from the opposition. Unlike Shesterkin, McDavid's odds of +600 provide a considerable gap from his team's Stanley Cup odds of +280. He's worth another look as he'll have to up his production to upset the Stars and beat either Florida or New York.

Stars (+240)

Jake Oettinger is the favorite, but it's unlikely that a goalie with just a 3.05 GSAx through two rounds would be the main reason the Stars win the Stanley Cup. Dallas has eight forwards with six-plus points, but Miro Heiskanen is the standout candidate thanks to his team-leading 13 points.

Our pre-playoff bet on Heiskanen at 60-1 has aged nicely. His stellar play will get more attention as the lights shine brighter on the Stars.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

The Oilers escaped Vancouver with a Game 7 win, outlasting the shorthanded Canucks. Edmonton now has some questions to answer after that long series, and with a quick turnaround for the start of the Western Conference Final.

The Stars answered their own doubts in the last round against the Avalanche and will host Game 1 on Thursday.

Unlike the Eastern Conference Final, the team with home-ice advantage in this series is the favorite at a parallel price.

Advanced metrics glossary

• ES = Even strength
• xG% = Expected goals share
• HDCA/G = High-danger chances allowed per game
• GSAx/60 = Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes
• SNIPES = HDC goals + PP goals / HDC + PP chances

Oilers vs. Stars

Tale of the tape

Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.

Skaters' scoring talent

The Oilers and Stars recorded similar regular-season numbers, but the playoffs tell a different story. Edmonton's SNIPES percentage is up to 17.8%, suggesting it's been a little lucky in converting quality scoring chances. That's even accounting for the Oilers going 1-for-10 on the power play to close Round 2.

Dallas has continued its brilliance in expected goals share (xG%) while playing against highly rated teams in Vegas and Colorado, leading the playoffs at 56% while having a below-average SNIPES percentage of 11.3%. That number should rise as the sample size grows.

Goaltending matchup

Dallas is set to face another suspect goaltender in Stuart Skinner, who was chased from the Canucks series. However, it seems the Oilers don't feel there's a viable alternative to Skinner and his -10.57 GSAx over the last two playoffs since they weren't willing to trust Calvin Pickard in an elimination game.

Team ratings

Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I have them rated (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break:

Edmonton was rated better than Dallas for much of the season, which is why the Stars are only a short favorite despite having home ice and a rest advantage.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

Some sportsbooks opened at Stars -120. The market is leaning toward Dallas, pushing it further away from a textbook valuable bet. That said, our target price listed above doesn't account for the Stars' rest advantage, while the betting market does.

Our formula liked the Stars at any number against the Golden Knights and the Avalanche, and an 8-4 record at short prices has made them profitable.

Jake Oettinger's bad playoff moments have been few and far between, though his occasional poor games have led to losses. However, I'd rather sacrifice one game per series on a tough outing than back the team with a consistently subpar netminder.

Edmonton's supporting players finally got going late in Round 2, taking some pressure off Connor McDavid, whose usage was off the charts early on. Was 20 minutes of ice time in Game 7 a sign McDavid wore down? Just one goal - as he had against the Canucks - won't be enough to beat the Stars.

Dallas has outstanding metrics despite scoring on just 10 of its 137 even-strength high-danger chances. The Stars also have a league-best 5-1 road record this postseason. Throw in Peter DeBoer's perfect Game 7 resume, and there's little reason not to like Dallas at a short price for Game 1 and the series. Since they might face the lowest-rated team remaining in the playoffs - the Rangers - the Stars' odds are still long enough to make our first play on a Stanley Cup Champion.

Best bets:
- Game 1: Stars moneyline (-130)
- Stars to win series (-130)
- Stars to win Stanley Cup (+240)

(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.