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Stanley Cup betting: Looking at in-series value after Game 4s

Are we having fun yet? Or is that just the feeling of exhaustion after eight nights' worth of mayhem in the Stanley Cup Playoffs? Each series has gone four games, and no one's been eliminated. We've hit a point in the first round where series positions have been established, so moneyline bets or in-series adds aren't often necessary. Nevertheless, we'll take a quick look at each series to dissect what to expect when it comes to closing time.

Islanders (+800) @ Hurricanes (-1600)

Even-strength numbers

TEAM xG HDC HDG
Islanders 10.75 48 3
Hurricanes 8.13 36 4

Let's start with a public service announcement: For a series where the underdog has to run the table, just roll over the moneylines.

Here's what rolling over moneylines looks like for the Islanders on a $10 bet with lines of +140 in Game 5, -110 in Game 6, and +130 in Game 7:

  • $10 x 2.4 x 1.9 x 2.3 = +$95 (+950)

The Isles' hopes rest on the fact that they've been the better team - with metrics that would suggest they'd be leading a series 57% of the time - and that as long as they're alive, there's still time for Ilya Sorokin to step up and bring a level of play similar to what Antti Raanta is providing the Hurricanes.

Wild (+130) @ Stars (-150)

Even-strength numbers

TEAM xG HDC HDG
Wild 8.12 33 6
Stars 8.19 32 2

The reason to bet on the Stars before the series was because they might get something of a free win if the Wild stuck with their plan to play Marc-Andre Fleury at some point. Sure enough, the Stars rolled in Game 2, but now they have to deal with the best goalie in the series - Filip Gustavsson - who's saved almost a full goal above expectation per 60 minutes.

Jake Oettinger met Gustavsson's level in Game 4, so we'll hope that any pre-series or in-series positions on the Stars come through, with no value on either side currently.

Kings (+210) @ Oilers (-270)

Even-strength numbers

TEAM xG HDC HDG
Kings 10.55 55 6
Oilers 13.29 64 3

The Kings were so very close to cashing +1.5 series games tickets on Sunday, and now they're back to the same odds they had before the series and after Game 2. There's little to do beyond hold Kings tickets unless Jack Campbell starts for the Oilers in Game 5, which would trigger a bet on Los Angeles.

Panthers (+1500) @ Bruins (-3000)

Even-strength numbers

TEAM xG HDC HDG
Panthers 11.55 43 4
Bruins 9.81 36 6

When one out of every six high-danger chances is going in at one end of the ice, and one out of every 10-plus high-danger chances is going in at the other end, there's going to be a lopsided result relative to metrics like expected goals. That's the difference between Linus Ullmark playing up to his standard and the Panthers' goaltenders playing down to theirs - a standard that was always going to have to change or be overcome.

Kraken (+210) @ Avalanche (-270)

Even-strength numbers

TEAM xG HDC HDG
Kraken 9.99 51 5
Avalanche 11.18 42 6

There's no one on the Kraken roster who'll make your jaw drop with skill like Nathan MacKinnon's speed, Cale Makar's agility, and Mikko Rantanen's release. However, if the Avalanche aren't careful, they're going to get beat. The pre-series issue remains: How do you price the defending champs who aren't guaranteed to show up for a period or a game? Now a three-game series, more variance is in play for an upset, so the Kraken's odds are shorter than before the series.

Lightning (+750) @ Maple Leafs (-1200)

Even-strength numbers

TEAM xG HDC HDG
Lightning 8.19 40 6
Maple Leafs 8.87 48 7

The problem with a 3-1 lead is that now you can blow a 3-1 lead. Those following the pre-series handicap are sitting on a handful of tickets for a quick series, and all you can ask for is a home game to close it out. In Games 1 and 2, the Maple Leafs drove play at a two-thirds rate, while the Lightning had a slight edge at home. Both kept with the moneyline odds for the game, so pricing seems pretty fair.

Rangers (-115) @ Devils (-105)

Even-strength numbers

TEAM xG HDC HDG
Rangers 6.95 30 4
Devils 10.57 50 1

The Devils scored their first goal on an even-strength high-danger chance in the series in Game 4. One goal out of 50 tries when staring down Igor Shesterkin is a wild stat, yet the Devils are headed back home tied at two.

Not to overcomplicate things, the Devils replaced Vitek Vanecek's minus-2.99 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) with Akira Schmid's plus-3.29 GSAx in two games. With that change in quality between the pipes, very little else matters. The Devils were -125 to win the series before it started, and now they're -105 with questions in net answered and their own HDC conversion rate set to improve.

Jets (+750) @ Golden Knights (-1200)

Even-strength numbers

TEAM xG HDC HDG
Jets 8.5 36 4
Golden Knights 9.52 35 8

Betting on the Jets was really more of a fade of the Golden Knights, particularly at prices that suggested that you were getting plus money on a coin flip before the series. However, sometimes the coin lands on the wrong side, even if it's weighted. Winnipeg has had key player after key player injured and isn't getting anything from Connor Hellebuyck to save the day.

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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NHL Tuesday best bets: Islanders to stave off elimination

Monday night was a good one on the ice. We came out on top in two of three featured plays, including our underdog play on the Devils at +130.

We'll look to keep the momentum going with three plays for Tuesday's three-game slate.

Islanders (+135) @ Hurricanes (-155)

The Hurricanes are a better team than the Islanders and a good bet to win the series. But it's hard to get behind them at this price.

With no Max Pacioretty, Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen, or - potentially - Jack Drury, this Carolina team has been decimated on the wing. There isn't much scoring pop left in the lineup.

Those absences have also taken a healthy bite out of the Hurricanes' ability to drive play. Despite trailing 3-1 in the series, the Islanders have both outchanced and outscored Carolina at five-on-five.

New York has hung in extremely well against one of the NHL's most consistently dominant even-strength teams - it just hasn't been able to slow the Hurricanes' power play.

Carolina has scored five power-play goals over four games, while the Islanders have found the back of the net just once with the man advantage (and conceded a shorthanded goal).

While the Hurricanes deserve credit for that, it seems unlikely they can rely as heavily on the power play in Game 5.

For one, the Islanders ranked ninth in power-play goals against per minute and third in shorthanded save percentage during the regular season. They're normally adept at killing penalties, and it will be shocking if Ilya Sorokin continues to let the Hurricanes score on 25% of their power-play shots.

This is an elimination game for New York. That means - rightly or wrongly - the refs are likely to tuck the whistles away as much as possible. Given the way the special-teams battle has gone for the Islanders thus far, that should work in their favor.

This should be a close and sweaty game. At +135, there's value on New York to pull it out.

Bet: Islanders (+135)

Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 shots (-110)

Heiskanen is one of the best volume shooting defensemen in the NHL. He does his best work on home ice, coming through in 27 of the Stars' 41 games at American Airlines Center this season. That's an impressive 66% hit rate.

Heiskanen recorded three shots or more in each of Dallas' first two games against the Wild. He failed to do so in two outings at Minnesota's Xcel Energy Center, though the venue is notably stingy when it comes to handing out shots.

Expect Heiskanen to get back on track Tuesday night in Dallas. His volume is consistently higher at home - he averages 1.3 more attempts than he does on the road - and he should get all the ice time he can handle in this massive swing game.

If Dallas loses tonight, the Wild return home with a chance to close out the series in their own building. Expect the Stars to ride their stars in an effort to take control of this series.

Adrian Kempe over 3.5 shots (-115)

Kempe's shot volume has been remarkably good through the Kings' first four games against the Oilers. He's attempted 39 shots, tying him with Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.

That volume has translated to success in the shot prop market. Kempe has hit in three of four games thus far, coming just one short last time out.

It wasn't for a lack of trying. Kempe attempted seven shots despite only getting two minutes of work on the power play; he had at least four minutes in each of the three previous games. Had one of his four misses hit the target, he'd be looking at a clean 4-0 record.

Kempe hit in each of the first two games at Edmonton's Rogers Place, recording 10 shot attempts or more in both affairs. Expect another productive effort tonight.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Golden Knights’ Brossoit: Jets fans’ taunts gave me ‘fuel’ in Game 4 win

Laurent Brossoit says he had a little extra motivation when the fans of the opposing team - and his former club - tried to get under his skin Monday night.

The Vegas Golden Knights goaltender got the last laugh after fans at Winnipeg's Canada Life Centre derisively serenaded the ex-Jets netminder with his name and chants of "You're a backup."

Brossoit stopped 24 of 26 shots in a 4-2 victory that gave Vegas a 3-1 series lead and pushed Winnipeg to the brink of elimination in their first-round playoff series.

"Oh yeah, I could hear them," Broissoit said postgame. "Honestly, it's just fuel. When you have that many people chanting your name, whether it's positive or negative, it's fuel."

"(It) didn't really seem like much fazed him," Golden Knights defenseman Shea Theodore said. "I know the crowd was kind of getting on him there, but he's a fantastic goalie, and he's on his game right now."

Brossoit played three seasons for the Jets as Connor Hellebuyck's backup from 2018 to 2021. Broissoit is in his second campaign with the Golden Knights, who signed the 30-year-old as a free agent in July 2021.

He took over as Vegas' starter in the wake of injuries to Logan Thompson and Adin Hill. Brossoit himself spent time on long-term injured reserve and played 23 AHL games in addition to 11 with the Golden Knights this season.

The B.C.-born puck-stopper went 7-0-3 with a .927 save percentage at the NHL level this year prior to the playoffs. He has a .902 clip to go along with a 3-1 record in the postseason.

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Can the Avalanche sink pesky Kraken and mount another Stanley Cup run?

The Seattle Kraken edged the Colorado Avalanche 3-2 in overtime on Monday to square their first-round playoff matchup at two wins apiece. These three questions will shape the Avalanche's fate in the series and determine how close they come to repeating as Stanley Cup winners.

Can Avalanche score first and often?

Christopher Mast / NHL / Getty Images

Certain pillars of the Avalanche's 2022 Cup team either signed elsewhere last summer (Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky) or missed the full year recovering from knee surgery (captain Gabriel Landeskog). The Avs reigned atop the Central Division anyway, despite scoring 32 fewer goals than last season.

Colorado's offense was electric in the '22 playoffs. The Avalanche potted 4.25 goals per game over 20 matchups, the most by a team whose run lasted that long since the 1983 New York Islanders. They outscored the Nashville Predators 21-9 in the first-round sweep that initiated the onslaught.

Seattle's a pluckier opponent, but Colorado's big guns came to play. The forwards who log the heaviest minutes - Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, J.T. Compher, Artturi Lehkonen, and Valeri Nichushkin (who remains out for personal reasons) - have bagged 10 of the club's 12 goals to date. Rantanen's Game 4 equalizer was his fifth tally of the series and ended the Avalanche power play's protracted drought. Of course, Jordan Eberle's power-play goal for the Kraken in overtime was bigger.

Steph Chambers / Getty Images

Winning offensive-zone faceoffs has sparked the Avalanche at times. Lehkonen and Devon Toews scored off draws to power Colorado's Game 2 comeback. Alex Newhook, a 38.6% faceoff taker for his career, snapped one back to tee up Cale Makar's missile from the point in Game 3. Colorado only controlled 44% of the draws in Game 4, a series low.

Per Natural Stat Trick, MacKinnon leads the series in shots and individual scoring chances, predictably establishing himself as a force. He paced all NHL regulars this season in five-on-five scoring per 60 minutes, producing 3.28 points (for context, Connor McDavid's per-60 rate was 2.71). Outshot 43-22 on Monday, the Avalanche didn't drum up any momentum until MacKinnon's sweet backhand feed helped Rantanen score off the rush.

Colorado's depth diminished up front when Kadri and Burakovsky departed, and Landeskog was shelved. The main cast remained formidable through the rash of injuries that sidelined MacKinnon, Lehkonen, Nichushkin, Makar, and Bowen Byram for weeks at a time. The Avs scored the first goal in an NHL-high 54 games this season, posting an .824 points percentage in those contests.

Pouring it on early and consistently is how they'll contend for the Cup again. Credit the Kraken, who've wrongfooted Colorado by striking first in all four games.

Can Avs manage puck in the D-zone?

Steph Chambers / Getty Images

Puck-movers abound on Colorado's back end. Makar is a wizard, Toews' decision-making is sound, and Byram and Samuel Girard are renowned for their mobility. Despite this strength, careless puckhandling has stung the Avalanche every time they've started slow in the series and dug a two-goal hole.

Many Seattle tallies have stemmed from failed Colorado breakouts, takeaways in the Avalanche zone, or bounces the Avs mishandled behind the net. A few minutes into Game 4, Rantanen's blind back pass wound up on Brandon Tanev's stick, and Will Borgen promptly wired a one-timer over Alexandar Georgiev's mitt.

The Kraken's offensive approach is no-nonsense. They lack superstar creators but send pucks deep, forecheck doggedly, win one-on-one battles, and attack downhill in transition. That happened in overtime Monday when Lars Eller's offensive-zone turnover enabled Jaden Schwartz to race behind two Colorado defenders and compel Josh Manson to trip him.

Seattle's finishing ability is elite, but the stupendous goals in this matchup - both MacKinnon's breakaway burst and undressing of Ryan Donato in Game 3 come to mind - largely belong to the Avalanche. Conjuring highlights is their domain. Taking greater care of the puck would limit glorious chances against and help spring Colorado's stars up ice.

Can Georgiev shut the door?

Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

Last spring, Darcy Kuemper's .902 postseason save percentage was high enough for him to win the Stanley Cup. He saved minus-7.29 goals above expected in the playoffs, per Evolving-Hockey. Injured in multiple rounds, Kuemper ceded the net at points to backup Pavel Francouz. Colorado was the rare champion that never needed its starting goalie to dominate.

Signed to succeed Kuemper, Georgiev's save percentage has slipped from .919 over 62 regular-season starts to .908 so far against the Kraken.

That said, he's been dependable at key junctures. Georgiev thwarted Yanni Gourde's breakaway attempt and Eberle's odd-man chance in Game 2 with huge pad saves, keeping the Avalanche afloat when they trailed in the series. He stoned Jared McCann in Game 4 a beat before Makar injured the Kraken sniper by ramming him into the boards. Georgiev saved 29 consecutive shots and denied 40 overall before Eberle struck in sudden death.

Philipp Grubauer's .895 save percentage this season was poor, but the Kraken netminder has experience shining in the clutch. Grubauer foiled shots at a .920 rate over 29 playoff starts for Colorado from 2019-21. Georgiev was the busier and better goalie on Monday, a silver lining he'll have to duplicate to submerge Seattle.

Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.

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Kraken’s McCann departs after taking big hit from Makar

Seattle Kraken forward Jared McCann exited Game 4 against the Colorado Avalanche after being interfered with by Cale Makar and did not return.

Makar was initially assessed a five-minute major, but it was reduced to a two-minute minor for interference after review.

McCann needed help leaving the rink.

McCann led the Kraken with 40 goals and 70 points in 79 regular-season games. He's tallied one assist so far in the playoffs.

The Kraken won the contest 3-2 in overtime.

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Jets’ Scheifele exits Game 4 with upper-body injury

The Winnipeg Jets were dealt another significant blow during their 4-2 Game 4 loss Monday, as Mark Scheifele was forced to leave with an upper-body injury.

Scheifele exited following a shot attempt during a first-period power play and did not return.

He crashed hard into the boards earlier in the game after being tripped by Vegas Golden Knights netminder Laurent Brossoit.

Jets head coach Rick Bowness said postgame that Scheifele will be re-evaluated Tuesday and his status for the rest of the series is unknown, according to TSN's John Lu.

Scheifele becomes the third key player missing from the Jets' lineup. No. 1 defenseman Josh Morrissey was ruled out for the remainder of the series after suffering a lower-body injury in Game 3, while dynamic forward Nikolaj Ehlers has yet to suit up in the postseason due to an upper-body issue.

Scheifele led the Jets with a career-high 42 goals during the regular season. He's tallied one goal and no assists in these playoffs.

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Kerfoot scores OT winner to cap comeback, Leafs take 3-1 series lead

The Toronto Maple Leafs are one win away from the second round.

After a remarkable third period in which the Maple Leafs came back from a 4-1 deficit, Alexander Kerfoot deflected Mark Giordano's shot on the power play to end overtime.

The Maple Leafs are now up 3-1 over the defending Eastern Conference champion Tampa Bay Lightning as the series shifts back to Toronto for Game 5 on Thursday.

"That's what you dream about: scoring a goal in overtime of the playoffs," Kerfoot said postgame, according to The Athletic's Joshua Kloke.

Kerfoot had a down regular season, tallying just 32 points after racking up 51 a year ago. But head coach Sheldon Keefe always had a hunch the versatile forward would come through in a big moment.

"I felt he was going to score a massive goal for us," Keefe said. "A guy that works as hard as he does, as important he is to the leadership group ... that's the type of guy who gets rewarded."

Auston Matthews scored twice in a 2:45 span in the third period before Morgan Rielly tallied the game-tying goal with 3:56 remaining in regulation. Ilya Samsonov made 27 saves in the victory.

"Credit to the spirit of the group," Keefe said. "It's outstanding to witness."

Toronto won Game 3 in a similar fashion via Rielly's OT winner after Ryan O'Reilly tied the contest in the final minute of regulation.

The Maple Leafs haven't won a series since defeating the Ottawa Senators in the first round of the 2004 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

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Gallant rips Rangers’ effort in Game 4 loss: ‘We didn’t show up’

The New York Rangers were dealt a tremendous opportunity to put the New Jersey Devils on the brink of elimination after winning the first two games on the road, but following back-to-back home losses, the two sides are all square.

Head coach Gerard Gallant was not pleased with his club's effort to put a stranglehold on the series in Monday's Game 4 loss.

"Not good enough," Gallant said postgame. "Not even close to good enough."

He added: "We didn't show up. We didn't play hard enough. We didn't compete hard enough. All we did was yap at the linesmen for getting thrown out of the faceoffs. Lot of bad things tonight."

Gallant was particularly upset with the effort from some of his wingers in the neutral zone.

"Tonight, weak-side winger was a little bit lazy, staying on the other side of the ice to watch the play instead of supporting it," Gallant said. "How many times did you see us whipping pucks across and them picking them off in the middle? Just the old recipe when you look like you're tired or lazy, that's what happens."

Rangers forward Vincent Trocheck, who scored New York's lone goal in the 3-1 loss, lamented the team's struggles while noting it was a tough sledding for both teams.

"I think they had a hard time getting into our end as well," Trocheck said. "A lot of play in the neutral zone. It's playoff hockey. It's clogged up out there."

The Rangers and Devils each recorded 23 shots, but New Jersey registered more quality chances, controlling 66.2% of the expected goals at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick.

"We have to do a better job of getting to the middle of the ice and getting more pucks on net," Rangers captain Jacob Trouba added.

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