The quest to hoist the Stanley Cup begins Monday. These storylines will affect the championship hopes of the eight teams in the Western Conference playoff bracket. (Click to read our breakdown of the Eastern qualifiers.)

Vegas Golden Knights
Will Eichel seize the moment?

Through the ankle sprains and the herniated disk that estranged him from the Sabres, Jack Eichel made 476 appearances over eight years without ever touching the ice in the playoffs.

He finally got there. Eichel mostly stayed healthy as the Golden Knights won the Pacific Division to atone for falling short of the 2022 playoffs. Buffalo's erstwhile captain sparked Vegas offensively with 66 points in 67 games. That made up for trusty load-bearers Mark Stone and Shea Theodore missing months apiece.

The Golden Knights strung together two spells of elite play. They opened the regular season 13-2-0, then compiled a 22-4-5 record after the All-Star break. Their points percentage with Eichel in the lineup was .694. That extrapolates to a 114-point pace over 82 games and positions Vegas for a Stanley Cup push if Eichel can be clutch.

Winnipeg Jets
Can scorers build on late-year resurgence?

Winnipeg's decline from February onward was steep. The Jets played .500 hockey over their final 30 games to rank 12th in the West in that span after placing second at the All-Star break, only outshining teams that tanked for Connor Bedard. Their per-game goals rate plunged from 3.19 before the break to 2.67.

Winnipeg's top forwards slumped en masse. Pierre-Luc Dubois produced 2.05 points per 60 minutes ahead of the break, then managed 1.07 afterward. Nikolaj Ehlers' per-60 splits were 3.49 points and 2.28. Kyle Connor (2.32, 1.48) endured an 11-game goal drought. Blake Wheeler (2.10, 1.95) scored once in his last 27 appearances.

A recent uptick restored momentum and hope. The Jets won five of seven games to end the season as Connor, Dubois, and Ehlers combined with Mark Scheifele to net a dozen goals. Fresh off setting a career high in goals saved above expected (33.62), Connor Hellebuyck could steal a series if he gets enough offensive help.

Edmonton Oilers
Will Ekholm be the best deadline acquisition?

Splashy midseason trades routed many of the top forwards on the market - including Bo Horvat, Timo Meier, Ryan O'Reilly, and Patrick Kane - from Western Conference also-rans to Eastern contenders. The West's Cup hopefuls were comparably quiet, but Edmonton's biggest move has been transformative.

Mattias Ekholm, the grizzled longtime Predators blue-liner, has impressed since he swapped places with Tyson Barrie. He ranked fifth on the Oilers in points since the Feb. 28 deal and tilted the ice in the top-pair minutes he shouldered. Edmonton outscored teams 27-8 during Ekholm's five-on-five shifts with partner Evan Bouchard, per Natural Stat Trick. Darnell Nurse's workload lightened, which was a welcome bonus.

Anemic secondary scoring and shaky defensive play in recent postseasons prevented Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl from engineering Cup runs. That could change this spring. Edmonton's .881 points percentage and plus-37 goal differential in Ekholm's 21 games were NHL highs, affirming that these Oilers are a force to fear.

Los Angeles Kings
Will they win the special-teams battle?

There's a chasm in quality between the Kings' fourth-ranked power play in the NHL (25.3% conversion rate) and their penalty kill, which operated at 75.8%. No Western playoff team's kill was worse.

Contributors abound on L.A.'s power play. The Kings led the NHL in 20-point-scorers (six), 10-point-scorers (eight), and seven-goal-scorers (six) in that phase, democratizing who could make a difference. On the PK, the Pheonix Copley-Joonas Korpisalo tandem's .852 save percentage is praiseworthy because it dwarfs the combined .804 mark that Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen posted before Korpisalo was acquired.

How they fare on special teams could shape the Kings' playoff destiny. Edmonton's power play outscored L.A.'s unit 7-3 in the teams' first-round clash a year ago, when the Kings were shut out and lost narrowly in Game 7.

Colorado Avalanche
Can Byram maintain his scoring touch?

Concussion issues and other ailments limited Bowen Byram to 42 appearances this season and 91 NHL games over his first three years. But he was a pivotal part of Colorado's Stanley Cup defense corps. Byram excelled as the No. 3 guy on the depth chart last year when Samuel Girard was knocked out of the playoffs with a broken sternum.

Almost every key Colorado player missed extended time this season, including Cale Makar recently. Byram stepped up when healthy. Skating for 22 minutes a night, he scored in three straight games toward the end of March to increase his goal total to 10 and rise to fifth among NHL defensemen in goals per contest. The lion's share of his production (17 of 24 points) came at even strength.

Offseason departures and the injury bug didn't stop the Avalanche from reaching 50 wins again. Internal growth in the form of Byram's offensive spark gives them unique scoring depth on the back end. Opponents can't relax even when Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and the Makar-Devon Toews pair are off the ice.

Seattle Kraken
Will they keep scoring prolifically?

Seattle's offense is historically balanced. No team in the cap era iced more 30-point-scorers (13) or more 25-point-scorers (17) than Dave Hakstol's club, per Stathead. Zero Kraken point-producers finished in the top 50 league-wide, but the entire lineup can threaten to light the lamp on any shift.

Seattle ranked 10th in shot attempts and was first by a wide margin at five-on-five in shooting percentage (10.3%), per Natural Stat Trick. Clinical finishers, the Kraken scored 32.6 goals above expected, as tracked by MoneyPuck, the NHL's sixth-highest figure over the past 10 seasons. Burying chances at that rate is paramount because the Kraken's goaltending is the worst among playoff qualifiers (.886 team save percentage).

Only five squads that advanced past Round 1 shot better than 10% at five-on-five over the past 15 postseasons. It'd be abnormal if the Kraken remain this hot, though maybe that's to be expected from a unique team with depth that's a safeguard against individual slumps.

Dallas Stars
Is Robertson ready for his close-up?

Even when Mike Modano was at the peak of his powers, no Stars skater ever racked up 100 points in a Dallas uniform. Jason Robertson's 109-point breakout season pushed boundaries and established the superstar winger as a multidimensional offensive weapon.

Robertson's 46 goals, the NHL's seventh-most, constitute a new career high. His 63 assists shattered his previous personal best. Dallas' first line - Roope Hintz between Robertson and Joe Pavelski - generated a splendid 59.2% expected goals share over a league-high 765 minutes together, according to MoneyPuck. Over the past two seasons, Robertson's been on the ice for 44% of Stars tallies at even strength, per Natural Stat Trick.

The offense runs through him, but Robertson only scored once on 16 shots when the Flames bounced Dallas in seven games last postseason. A second Cup Final appearance in four years is attainable if Robertson averts another untimely slump and Miro Heiskanen and Jake Oettinger, fellow pillars of the Stars' sublime 2017 draft class, shine in their roles.

Minnesota Wild
Will Gustavsson flourish in playoff debut?

Acquired from Ottawa last summer for a veteran in decline, Filip Gustavsson outplayed his aging tandem partner in Minnesota this season. Gustavsson's save percentage over 39 games was .931. He saved 24.54 goals above expected, per Evolving Hockey, to rank seventh in the league. Gustavsson made a stingy defensive team even harder to beat.

Nominal Wild starter Marc-Andre Fleury saved 0.86 goals above expected. Cam Talbot, who went to the Senators, saved 0.30. They put up pedestrian numbers while Gustavsson flashed star potential at 24 years old, rewarding general manager Bill Guerin's foresight.

Gustavsson made three straight starts twice this year and twice before that in his career, according to HockeyGoalies.org. He's appeared in 66 regular-season games to Fleury's 985 and has no playoff experience. That might prompt head coach Dean Evason to keep rotating his goalies, but Gustavsson has earned the chance to monopolize the crease.

Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.

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The United States rallied with four third-period goals to win gold at the IIHF Women's World Championship on Sunday, defeating Canada 6-3 in the final.

USA captain Hilary Knight was named player of the game for potting a hat trick. Her second goal stood as the game-winner, coming with 3:10 left in the third period while on a 5-on-3 power play.

Knight buried her third of the contest 27 seconds later off a deflection with USA still on the man advantage. She also became the first player in tournament history to reach 100 career points.

Abbey Murphy, Caroline Harvey, and Cayla Barnes (empty-netter) scored the other goals for the United States.

Marie-Philip Poulin and Brianne Jenner (twice) found twine for Canada.

It's the first gold medal at the event for the Americans since winning five in a row from 2013-19 (the tourney isn't held in Olympic years), and 10th total.

Canada won the previous two tournaments and holds the record with 12 all time.

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The Canadian federal government announced Sunday it'll reinstate Hockey Canada's funding, effective immediately.

Canadian sport minister Pascale St-Onge made the announcement ahead of the gold-medal game between Canada and the United States at the IIHF Women's World Championship in Brampton, Ontario.

St-Onge said Hockey Canada met three conditions to have its funding fully restored: become a full signatory to Abuse-Free Sport and the Office of the Sport Integrity Commissioner, continue to review and implement the recommendations from the independent governance review led by The Honorable Thomas Cromwell, and commit to more frequent reporting to the Government of Canada.

The Canadian government froze Hockey Canada's funding in June 2022, two months after a woman alleged in a lawsuit that eight CHL players sexually assaulted her. The alleged incident included several members of Canada's 2018 world junior team and took place in June 2018 at a London, Ontario, hotel after a Hockey Canada event. The $3.55-million lawsuit was settled out of court.

Hockey Canada then announced in July that the 2003 world junior team was being investigated for an alleged group sexual assault.

Executives within the organization said in July that Hockey Canada paid out $8.9 million in sexual abuse settlements since 1989, excluding the 2018 incident.

Hockey Canada received $7.7 million in federal backing from Sport Canada in the 2022 fiscal year before the funding was frozen.

"Today marks an important milestone for Hockey Canada in our journey to earn and maintain the trust of Canadians," Hugh L. Fraser, chair of the Hockey Canada Board of Directors, said. "While I would like to thank Minister St-Onge and the government for their vote of confidence and for their ongoing efforts to prioritize safe sport in Canada, I also wish to stress that we still have work to do to change the culture of our sport.

"This is a significant moment for the future of Hockey Canada, and hockey in Canada, as it will enable us to further our commitment to supporting all levels of the sport. We thank the minister and the government for placing their trust in us, and we look forward to working with them to make hockey safer from coast to coast to coast."

Hockey Canada elected a new nine-member board in December after the previous regime was ousted as a result of the controversies. The organization has yet to name a new CEO.

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With Sidney Crosby and the Penguins' playoff streak snapped, the team that no one has any fun playing - the Islanders - laid claim to the final Stanley Cup Playoffs spot. Their reward? A best-of-seven series with the top-rated team in terms of expected goals at even strength. Of course, the Hurricanes won't be thrilled about needing to overcome Ilya Sorokin to convert those to actual goals, especially with how they finished the season offensively.

Series odds

This is the second-biggest favorite that this iteration of the Hurricanes has been, as they were well into the -200s before a first-round series with the Predators two years ago. They shouldn't have as easy of a time against the Islanders, who routinely find themselves as the underdog this time of year.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied, and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season, and when isolating play after the All-Star break.

Yes, you read that correctly. The Hurricanes came out of this season as the top-ranked team in my rating system, even though their comparative statistics slowed down from their unsustainable levels early in the season.

Advanced metrics at even strength

XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

If the idea is to accrue as many high-quality scoring chances as possible without allowing those same chances to opponents, Carolina is doing something right. Only the Devils had more high-danger scoring chances than the Hurricanes, and no one allowed fewer. They'll need that disparity against a goaltender who stopped high-danger chances at an impressively high rate.

Goaltending matchup

The Isles know who they're rolling with - the goaltender with the highest goals saved above expected and the third-best save percentage in the NHL. As Sorokin looks to conduct his latest symphony, who the Hurricanes turn to for Game 1 is something of a state secret. Rod Brind'Amour says it's either Frederik Andersen or Antti Raanta, but he hasn't made the call yet. It's not the disparity that we see in the Wild-Stars series, and ironically, their best goaltender statistically was third-choice Pyotr Kochetkov (plus-10.07 GSAx).

Special teams

The Islanders fell short of hitting a standard goal to have their special teams' efficiency add up to over 100. Their power play isn't going to make up any ground for the odd goal that Sorokin gives up. Meanwhile, the Canes shouldn't expect to get many chances for their mediocre man advantage, either, as the Isles gave up the second-fewest power-play opportunities this season.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

The Hurricanes often showed up as valuable in the latter half of the season because the model had a hard time catching up to what Carolina is without Andrei Svechnikov. The Canes' star scorer went down with a torn ACL on March 11. We said when it happened that we'd revisit the Hurricanes after we saw what they look like without him.

Best bets

Let's take a look at the findings for the version of the Hurricanes we're likely to see this postseason. Since March 11, Carolina still managed a good expected goal share at 57.2% and 55.3% of the high-danger chances during even-strength play. However, of their 220 HDCs since Svechnikov's injury, they've only scored on 20 of them - a miserable 9.1% rate. That's considerably worse than their 11.4% rate from when Svechnikov was healthy.

Take that 9% rate and apply it against Sorokin's ability to frustrate even highly efficient scorers, and any bet on the Hurricanes in this series will likely result in viewer frustration as chances pile up but the scoreboard remains unchanged.

Low-scoring games mean the series may feature multiple overtimes and games that swing on a few timely goals. So why not take a shot at some plus-money series results?

Just because the games are close, doesn't mean each team has to win equally. Maybe one team wins the close games, and this series ends earlier than expected. If the Islanders get those goals and the Hurricanes never find the right goaltender in the right game, some bigger payouts are in play.

Game 1: Under 5.5 (-130)
Series: Under 5.5 games (+140)
Series: Islanders -1.5 games (+310)

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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The days of the mispriced big underdog are long gone. Years ago, if a defending Stanley Cup champion who won a third straight division as part of their title defense took on a second-year expansion team in the first round, the champ would be a massive favorite.

Unfortunately, we know too much now. Thanks to the widespread availability of advanced metrics, we know the Avalanche didn't have the season they'd hoped for, while the Kraken weren't necessarily a fluke in securing the first wild card.

Series odds

Let's use a hypothetical when trying to frame the odds for this series.

You bet the Kraken to win, and they do. Shortly after the series, you mention that winning bet to a non-bettor friend, and, amazed at your foresight, they ask you what the payout was. If you said, "just better than 2-to-1," doesn't it feel like the odds aren't long enough for what seems like a somewhat monumental upset?

In turn, as we'll discover below, the odds might be too long relative to how each team performed this year. By comparing the numbers to the narrative, it feels like these prices are located somewhere in between, depending on your purview.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game, which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season and when isolating play after the All-Star break.

The Kraken profile as the consistently inconsistent average NHL team that we often find in the category of borderline playoff participant. What makes this series so uncertain is that the Avalanche didn't profile that much better than average this season.

Advanced metrics at even strength

XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = 12.5%

Both Seattle and Colorado excelled at converting whatever high-danger chances they managed at even strength, which were fewer than they surrendered. Avalanche goaltenders were much better at stopping opponents' high-danger chances, leading to Colorado's nine-point advantage in the standings.

Goaltending matchup

Philipp Grubauer faces his former team after Martin Jones didn't do nearly enough to take and hold onto the starting job. By comparison to his first season in Seattle, Grubauer's second campaign was an improvement, but he's still little more than replacement level.

Ironically, Alexandar Georgiev almost matched Darcy Kuemper's 0.29 GSAx from the 2021-22 regular season, which is what the Avalanche hoped for when they let Kuemper go and paid $2 million less for similar quality.

Special teams

The Avalanche had an almost identical power-play efficiency last season, but once the playoffs started, they flipped a switch to where they were making their opponents pay for taking penalties - converting almost one-third of their power plays.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide, where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

As we alluded to above, a metrics-based "price to bet" suggests that the Kraken are an auto-play on the series line and on a game-by-game basis as well. To complicate matters further, the Kraken had much better results on the road than at home this season, and their home-ice advantage credit had to be docked accordingly.

Best bet

While the comparable even-strength metrics suggest value on the Kraken, creating a path to victory for Seattle is difficult since there's little to suggest that the team's goaltending can be a positive difference-maker, and finding an edge via special teams seems unlikely as well. However, in a seven-game series, anything is possible.

What we may find with a pair of teams that had above-average HDC conversion rates and unspectacular goaltending is that betting on offense is the way to go for this series. Over 36 total goals for the series is a derivative market bet that provides one way to play this series on the idea that it goes long while maintaining the possibility that it could cash in just five games as well.

Looking ahead in this series, one spot where I'll take a chance with the value that the market is offering on the Kraken is in Game 3 - Seattle's first-ever Stanley Cup Playoffs game, where we should be getting a plus price on the moneyline.

Gabriel Landeskog isn't returning for the Avs, and Cale Makar has battled injury all season. We can't be certain the reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner will play or sustain his usual level, which would really make Seattle a live underdog.

Should the Kraken series price get up to +250, that would be enough to coax me into taking a shot on Seattle, but a small bet on them to jump on the Avalanche - and close out the series before a Game 7 in Denver - is worth it at big odds.

Game 1: Over 6 goals (-110)
Series: Kraken -1.5 games (+425)

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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With the 2022-23 NHL regular season wrapped up, we're focused on awards here at theScore. We submitted our ballots for the real winners, suggested realistic individual hardware the league should introduce, and now, we're going way off the board with our annual superlative honors.

Let's get started.

Best fit with new team 🏆

Nominees: Matthew Tkachuk (Panthers), Kevin Fiala (Kings), Filip Gustavsson (Wild)

This award had the deepest pool of worthy candidates, leading to the likes of Claude Giroux and Brent Burns not making the cut. Nonetheless, Tkachuk earned the right by finishing the year top-10 in scoring after the biggest trade in recent memory, while Fiala and Gustavsson also impressed with their new teams. Fiala came exactly as advertised, providing much-needed scoring depth in Tinseltown, while Gustavsson took Minnesota's starting gig and ran to a playoff berth by posting a .931 save percentage in 39 appearances.

And the winner is: Tkachuk. He's a legitimate candidate to be an MVP finalist and scored 31 more points than any other Florida skater. Any doubts about his value following the trade from Calgary were erased after he grabbed his new club by the scruff of their necks and carried them to the playoffs.

Worst fit with new team 🏆

Nominees: Ben Chiarot (Red Wings), Tony DeAngelo (Flyers), Jack Campbell (Oilers)

Here we have an award no one wants to find themselves in the running for. Chiarot's long-term deal with Detroit paid little dividends in its first year, while DeAngelo's offensive production took a dive. He was also a healthy scratch more than once under head coach John Tortorella. Finally, if it weren't for the emergence of Stuart Skinner in the Edmonton goal, Campbell's debut season with the Oilers may have been the runaway winner.

And the winner is: Evidently, the droves of fans and pundits that forecasted Chiarot's four-year, $19-million contract being a problem for Detroit had a point. The rugged blue-liner was a team-worst minus-30 and has underlying numbers that indicate the cause is something much more alarming than bad luck.

Best leap year 🏆

Nominees: Jack Hughes (Devils), Tim Stutzle (Senators), Miro Heiskanen (Stars)

Not to be confused with a surprise breakout season, this award highlights players who've carried high expectations throughout their young careers and took the next step into superstardom in 2022-23. Hughes set a Devils single-season record with 99 points, flashing all the brilliance fans expected after he went first overall in 2019. Stutzle became a nightmare for the opposition in his third year and led the burgeoning Senators with 38 goals and 88 points. Last but not least, Heiskanen maintained his excellent defensive standards while exploding for a career-high 73 points, 37 more than his previous best.

And the winner is: Hughes. Nothing against the other candidates, but the Devils phenom staying healthy for most of the year and posting superstar numbers is great for the league and the Devils, who were one of the league's most exciting teams this season.

Non-McDavid MVP 🏆

Nominees: Matthew Tkachuk, David Pastrnak (Bruins), Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche)

Connor McDavid should be the unanimous Hart Trophy winner after tearing the league apart for 153 points, but we think these three have a great chance to be MVP finalists. Pastrnak joined McDavid in the 60-goal club and led the most successful regular-season team in NHL history in scoring by 46 points. MacKinnon sparked a sputtering Avalanche team back into the Central Division mix with a career-high 111 points in 71 games, good for the league's third-highest points-per-game clip at 1.56.

And the winner is: Tkachuk. We already mentioned his exploits above, and it carries weight that the Panthers aren't nearly as deep as the Bruins or Avalanche. Tkachuk was the only constant in the Cats' roller-coaster season, and he turned out to be the perfect fit after commandeering his way to Florida last summer. Pastrnak was almost the choice here, but even without all his points, Boston would have won a ton of games on the strength of its goalie duo.

Player most likely to regress 🏆

Nominees: Erik Karlsson (Sharks), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Oilers), Josh Morrissey (Jets)

Here we have three players that exceeded expectations this season, and three players we think don't have great odds to repeat in 2023-24. Karlsson and Nugent-Hopkins both eclipsed 100 points for the first time in their lengthy careers, while Morrissey added an offensive element to his game that simply didn't exist over his first seven campaigns.

And the winner is: Morrissey. Karlsson has the background as one of the most prolific offensive defensemen in NHL history, while Nugent-Hopkins is likely to continue sharing a power play with McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Morrissey's previous career high in points was 37, leading us to believe this year's output isn't sustainable.

Most drawn-out trade saga 🏆

Nominees: Patrick Kane (Blackhawks to Rangers), Jakob Chychrun (Coyotes to Senators), Bo Horvat (Canucks to Islanders)

This year's trade deadline was a doozy, and the three names above were a tiny fraction of the players that were dealt. That said, each blockbuster chosen as a finalist here seemingly took forever. Kane kept his heart set on the Rangers while they took on highly complex salary cap gymnastics to make a deal work. Chychrun was finally moved after what felt like years on the market, and Horvat had his fate as Canucks captain sealed nearly two months after rejecting Vancouver's final extension offer.

And the winner is: Chychrun, by a lot. Coyotes general manager Bill Armstrong held the star defenseman captive as long as possible and ultimately moved him for a package of three picks - a price many felt was low. The 25-year-old was even held out of the lineup for nearly three full weeks while the deal with Ottawa materialized.

Sneakiest superstar 🏆

Nominees: Brayden Point (Lightning), Clayton Keller (Coyotes), Carter Verhaeghe (Panthers)

There were dozens of terrific individual outputs across the league this year, but these three did so without taking up much of the spotlight. Point has championship cache, but did anyone happen to notice he scored 51 goals this season? Keller matched Keith Tkachuk's Coyotes record with 86 points and was one of the NHL's most productive players post-All-Star break with 45 points, a total bested by only McDavid, Draisaitl, and MacKinnon. And congrats to you if you bet on Verhaeghe being a top-10 goal-scorer with 42 tallies.

And the winner is: Keller. The Coyotes only ever make headlines for the wrong reasons, but Keller deserved some league-wide attention for his outstanding production on a 27th-place Arizona roster. He also earns some props for having a career year on the heels of a gruesome leg injury sustained late in 2021-22.

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For years, the Jets vexed handicappers. They'd fit the profile of a team getting regularly outplayed at even strength but survived by converting an unusual amount of the chances they got and relying on their goaltender to outperform the opponent in the other crease.

This season - their first under Rick Bowness - they didn't have the win total they managed in recent years but played much better overall. In fact, the wild-card Jets rate awfully similar to their first-round opponent - the Golden Knights.

Series odds

From a win-loss perspective, the Golden Knights used a hot start and a big finish to take the Pacific Division, while the Jets held off the Flames and Predators for the final wild card. Despite a 1-8 conference seeding matchup, top-seeded Vegas is expected to win this series less than 60% of the time.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied, and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season, and when isolating play after the All-Star break.

The Golden Knights' second strong stretch of the season wasn't nearly as impressive from a play-driving perspective, as both Vegas and Winnipeg were merely slightly above average after the All-Star break.

Advanced metrics at even-strength

XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

You won't find a closer matchup at even strength from a chance-creation standpoint. The Golden Knights were better than the Jets at converting chances and keeping them out of the net despite Winnipeg having the former Vezina-winner still at the top of his game.

Goaltending matchup

No, the above isn't the Jets' goaltending depth chart from 2018-21. Vegas played five different goaltenders this season, riding a hot Logan Thompson early but eventually letting Laurent Brossoit, the former backup of Connor Hellebuyck, grab the reins late after Thompson got hurt. While Brossoit's goals saved above expected (GSAx) reads better than Hellebuyck's, a small sample size of just 10 starts doesn't confirm anything other than Brossoit's right to getting the first crack in the crease against his former team.

Special teams

Vegas mitigates its poor penalty kill by rarely having to kill a penalty. With an NHL-low 2.38 times shorthanded per game, is it doing something differently than the other 31 teams? Or is regression around the corner in the short sample of a playoff series?

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

The Jets opened as high as +165 on the series but were immediately bet through our "price to bet" to as low as +140. This is a sign that the market understood that this series should be lined closer than at first look.

Best bet

I'd need the series price to return to +150 to fire on the Jets, but since the market is of the same opinion that we're in for a long series, we'll look for ways to bet that idea without having to give up much in the way of value or pay a lot of juice.

I have the fair price for Jets +1.5 games at 60%, which suggests appropriate odds of -150. That bet can be found for as low as -140. A +1.5 series bet wins no matter what happens in a potential Game 7, and I have the probability of a winner-take-all game happening at 31%. So while +223 would be fair price, anything at +200 or better would be good enough for me. That's because a potential Game 6 in Winnipeg would likely come with close to a coin-flip moneyline split, and we'd be content with needing either team to win to force a Game 7 since we'd be getting +200 on the team down 3-2.

As for the opener, we'll hope to get +133 on the Jets' moneyline before Tuesday night, and if not, we'll just let our series bets carry the weight of our interests in Game 1.

Game 1: Jets moneyline (+133 or better)
Series: Jets +1.5 (-145 or better)
Series: Over 6.5 total games (+215)

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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