We hit our lone player prop Monday night, successfully backing Mikko Rantanen to record an assist at plus money. We'll look to build on that with three more plays for Tuesday night's 12-game slate.

Jack Hughes over 3.5 shots (-120)

Hughes is one of the hottest shooters in the league, especially when playing on home ice. The Devils' young superstar recorded four shots or more in nine of his last 10 games in New Jersey, falling one shy in the lone exception. Hughes attempted seven shots in that game and missed the target on four occasions, so it very easily could've been another hit.

Although a date with the Lightning hardly seems ideal on the surface, Tampa Bay has gone through some issues defensively of late. The Lightning are especially bad on the road, allowing five-on-five shots on goal at a higher rate than all but the Ducks and Blackhawks over their last 10 games.

Hughes has the ability to get the job done against any opponent. He hit the over against the Rangers, Golden Knights, Kings, Maple Leafs, and Hurricanes during this hot streak at home.

With the Lightning laboring defensively and Hughes set to get advantageous matchups, I expect he'll get the job done once again.

Kris Letang over 2.5 shots (-115)

Letang hasn't been a frequent target this year, but his recent numbers have certainly caught my attention.

He registered three shots or more in seven of the past 10 games, and seven of the last nine when playing in Pittsburgh. His volume at home, in particular, has been nothing short of remarkable. Letang averaged 8.22 shot attempts per game over the past nine home dates.

Tonight, Letang finds himself in a juicy spot against the Canadiens, a bad defensive team at the best of times. Now they're playing in a road back-to-back against a Penguins side in the thick of a heated playoff race.

When playing on the road, only the Ducks conceded shots at a higher rate than the Canadiens over the last 10. They're giving up a ton of volume, and Letang - the Penguins' leading shot generator of late - figures to be the prime beneficiary.

Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 shots (-132)

Heiskanen is quickly becoming one of my favourite blue-liners to back. It doesn't seem to matter who he's up against or, more recently, whether he's at home or on the road. He simply gets the job done.

The Stars defenseman just completed a two-game set against a low-event, stingy defensive team in the Kraken. He generated 12 attempts over that span while hitting the over each time out.

Normally not as efficient on the road, Heiskanen quietly generated at least five attempts in nine of his last 10 away from home. That seems to be his magic number - Heiskanen owns a 37-8 record (82% hit rate) when attempting five shots or more this season.

The Canucks have given up a little more volume of late and been a below-average team in limiting shots to defensemen over the past 10 games.

Even in a back-to-back, Heiskanen stands out as someone worth backing.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe backed goaltender Matt Murray following another rocky outing Monday in a loss to the Buffalo Sabres.

Murray faced a modest 29 shots in the defeat but allowed four goals for the third consecutive start since returning from an ankle injury that forced him to miss 17 games.

"I think he's been great," Keefe said, per Sportsnet. "The numbers look terrible, but again, here tonight, I thought he looked really good. I mean, it's four tap-ins. They're three feet or less in front of the crease."

The Leafs held a 2-0 advantage early in the second period but allowed four consecutive goals and were heavily outshot from that point on. Keefe didn't think Murray was to blame.

"Our second period was our worst period by far, maybe of the season, to be honest," he said, according to the Toronto Sun's Terry Koshan.

Murray was acquired from the Ottawa Senators last offseason for future considerations. His tenure with the Maple Leafs began with a 7-2-2 record and .924 save percentage, but the two-time Stanley Cup winner has only five wins in 11 starts with a .877 clip since, according to Sportsnet Stats.

He's also comfortable with where his game is at.

"I felt pretty good, especially through two periods," he said, per TSN's Mark Masters. "I think that third period, they get a couple good looks and capitalized on them. I just got to make an extra save there, but I felt pretty good for the most part."

Toronto has relied primarily on Ilya Samsonov between the pipes this season due to Murray's injuries. The former Washington Capital is 23-8-2 on the season with a .915 save percentage and 2.84 goals against average.

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Colorado Avalanche forward Artturi Lehkonen sustained a broken finger in Monday's victory over the Montreal Canadiens, Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar said postgame, according to AltitudeTV.

Lehkonen will undergo surgery, per NHL.com's Sean Farrell.

The 27-year-old was enjoying a career year with the defending champions, who acquired him in a trade with the Canadiens on deadline day in 2022.

Lehkonen got a warm welcome in his return to Montreal on Monday as the Bell Centre crowd gave him a standing ovation right before he scored the first of his two goals in the first period. However, the Finnish winger exited and didn't return after playing four shifts in the second frame.

He added an assist in the win, bringing his totals up to 20 tallies and 29 helpers in 62 games this season. Lehkonen had been playing on the top line until recently.

Colorado has dealt with a slew of injuries this season and is still without captain Gabriel Landeskog, who's missed the entire campaign following knee surgery.

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It's been a difficult 12 months for Brock Boeser.

The Vancouver Canucks forward lost his father, Duke, in May after a long battle with dementia and cancer. Boeser also found himself in trade rumors ahead of the deadline, and on the ice, the sniper has struggled to find the back of the net this season.

"Definitely, some mental stuff that I'm still working through on a personal level," he told The Province's Ben Kuzma. "I have a guy outside our team that I've been working with - kind of a life (coach) guy. With the things I've gone through and last year while still trying to play, it was really hard.

"From that aspect, I'm just trying to get back to my true self and being the hockey player I was before. And get back to that mindset of coming to the rink and getting better every day - scoring goals and having that confidence."

Boeser, a four-time 20-goal scorer, has found twine just 12 times in 57 games this season. His 0.21 goals per game is a career low, and his 9.8% shooting percentage is well below his career mark of 13.2% entering the season.

"I really felt that I've lost that over the last couple of years, just dealing with stuff, and I'm just trying to find that swagger," he said. "It's important to make sure you're good mentally."

Boeser admitted that seeing his name in the rumor mill affected his performance as well. He specifically reflected on one outing where the stress got the better of him.

"When it really affected me was right before that Dallas game (a 5-4 win on Feb. 27 against the Stars)," he said. "I had a terrible game (minus-2, no shots, 15:01 of ice time). I couldn't get dialed in, and that's when it affected me the most, and I was pretty stressed and really thought about it."

Boeser added that it was a big "sigh of relief" when he knew he'd be staying put in Vancouver. He's in the first season of a three-year deal with a $6.65-million cap hit. He can become a free agent in 2025.

The Canucks selected Boeser 23rd overall in the 2015 NHL Draft. He was the Calder Trophy runner-up in 2017-18 after tallying a career-high 29 goals in 62 games.

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For the Canucks and their fans, it's time to give up.

It's time to abandon the only thing that gave a lost season some hope - the chance to draft Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli - or whomever else we all talk ourselves into believing is the franchise-changer, for that matter.

Fourteen points ahead of the Blue Jackets and 11 points clear of the Blackhawks and Sharks, the Canucks getting a top-2 pick would require the type of lottery luck that they historically don't have.

The problem all along has been that the Canucks are too good to be bad. Sure, expected goal and high-danger chance shares of around 47% this season are certainly not good, but the team is just not bad enough to lay down against the likes of the Blue Jackets, Blackhawks, Coyotes, Ducks, and Canadiens.

Early in the season, the Canucks were good enough to get multi-goal leads, but they would repeatedly and historically blow them due to poor defensive play and goaltending.

They had a captain good enough to be sought after in Bo Horvat, and they ultimately got a three-pronged package from the Islanders.

Thatcher Demko was considered good before this season, then wasn't, and now has a very good +4.79 goals saved above expectation in just five games following his return. For all the embarrassment brought by their midseason coaching change, the Canucks are now playing, dare I say, well defensively.

How do we find a silver lining as the Canucks return to the worst theoretical place in sports - mediocrity? We bet on them to disappoint their fans by winning.

The market seemed unaware of the Canucks' 4-1 record in their last five games when they made Vancouver a home underdog to the Senators on Saturday. The Canucks cashed plus-money tickets with ease in a 5-2 win - their fourth straight victory.

That's the type of game where you'll find value on the Canucks the rest of the way - priced cheaply against teams with higher playoff hopes. With all 17 of their remaining games against Western Conference teams who are largely better-than-average at best, the Canucks look to be a profitable bet on a nightly basis. So even when they win more than they lose and finish on the brink of a top-10 draft pick, at least that silver lining will come in the form of dollars in your wallet.

"Ted Lasso" taught us that it's the hope that kills you, but winning bets will make you feel alive.

The recipe

We started the season using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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We have a pint-sized three-game slate to begin the week. Although there isn't much to choose from on the betting board, a couple of plays still pop off the page.

Let's take a closer look.

Stars (-125) @ Kraken (+105)

The Stars bested the Kraken last time out in an airtight affair. Despite the scoreline, neither team was able to generate much offensively, especially Seattle.

The Kraken only mustered four high-danger chances in more than 63 minutes of action. With a goaltender like Jake Oettinger between the pipes, the Stars will always be in great shape when they limit teams that much.

I expect the Stars to prevail once again in the second leg of a two-game set in Seattle. First and foremost, they're the better team in better form. At five-on-five, Dallas has controlled well over 57% of the expected goals share over the last 10 games. That's a top-five clip in the NHL. Seattle slots far below the Stars in that regard, coming in around 48% (19th) during the same span.

With the Stars getting the better chances on a nightly basis, the best way to unseat them is by winning the goaltending battle. I don't love the Kraken's odds of doing that.

Philipp Grubauer has slowed down of late, allowing nine goals over the past two games. He has started every game in March, so it's possible fatigue is getting to him a bit. He's likely in for another tough night against Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, et al.

And if Martin Jones gets the nod? That's even better for the Stars' chances. Among 56 netminders to log 400-plus minutes in 2023, Jones ranks 47th with an .892 save percentage. He is really struggling and unlikely to give the Kraken the quality start they'll need - particularly after a couple weeks of idling.

Look for the Stars to grab another win and take all four points in their visit to Seattle.

Bet: Stars (-125)

Mikko Rantanen over 0.5 assists (+110)

The Avalanche are slowly starting to look like the team we've grown accustomed to seeing. Although they still show some flaws without the puck, they're as dangerous as ever with it.

They've scored an average of 3.85 goals per 60 over the past 10, which is more than all but the Oilers and Stars. They're consistently filling the net.

More goals equates to more points opportunities, and there should be plenty on Monday with Colorado taking on a bruised and battered Canadiens team.

The Canadiens - missing seemingly half their roster - have conceded at least three goals in six straight games and allowed 33 shots or more five times in that span. They're giving up a lot.

With the Avalanche in need of every point they can get, I expect they'll ride the big guns for 20-plus minutes again in this game. The only way they won't is if this turns into a blowout, which probably bodes well for Rantanen's chances of getting in on the action.

Rantanen's registered an assist in seven of his last eight games against bottom-10 scoring defenses. I'm happy backing him to do it again at plus money.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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