Tag Archives: Hockey

NHL Friday best bets: Islanders to fight back vs. Hurricanes

Thursday night was a good one on the ice as we successfully backed the Maple Leafs to win in regulation and split our player props.

We'll aim to build on that with three more plays for Friday's slate of games.

Hurricanes (+100) @ Islanders (-120)

The Islanders have dropped the first two games of the series but it's been air tight. Both games were decided by one goal, and it's not as if the Islanders were getting cratered in the chance department. Quite the contrary.

New York has actually gotten the better of them thus far, at least at five-on-five.

Their expected goal share sits above 50% and they've generated eight more high-danger scoring opportunities than they've conceded. They're largely playing well.

The Hurricanes have simply been more clinical with their finishing and taken advantage of their chances, which has been the difference thus far.

I am skeptical that will continue. For one, the Islanders have the better goaltender in Ilya Sorokin. He is generally going to fare much better than Antti Raanta if given similar workloads.

Carolina is also losing scoring wingers like crazy. Max Pacioretty and Andrei Svechnikov were already sidelined heading into the series, and now Teuvo Teravainen is out for the foreseeable future.

Scoring is going to be a very tough task for a Hurricanes team that has been laboring offensively.

If the first two games are any indication, the Islanders should have at least a small edge at five-on-five. Throw in the better goaltender and a ruckus home crowd, and I like their chances of getting back into this series.

Bet: Islanders (-115)

Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 shots (-115)

Heiskanen has been a shooting machine through the first two games of the series. He has attempted 20 shots, equalling Jason Robertson and slotting behind only Adrian Kempe, Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Hughes, and Cale Makar league-wide.

The double overtime game absolutely helped prop up his totals, but Heiskanen's volume - and efficiency - would look good even had both games ended in regulation.

Heiskanen has enjoyed a ton of success against the Wild. He has hit the over in five of six meetings this year and seven of nine dating back to last season.

He has also shown the ability to consistently get the job done come playoff time, having hit in six of his past seven games. That's impressive considering he faced a high-seeded Flames team last year and is now going up against a defense-first Wild roster.

Heiskanen will play a ton of minutes so long as the games are remotely close, which should be the case with Filip Gustavsson back in goal for Minnesota.

Look for him to make the most of his ice time and get the job done once again.

Adrian Kempe over 3.5 shots (+105)

Nobody in the playoffs has registered more shot attempts than Kempe through two games. Nobody.

The Kings' star sniper has been a man possessed thus far, using his speed to find open ice and frequently generating good looks despite getting the star treatment from the Oilers.

I expect Kempe's shooting success to continue Friday night at home. With last change, the Kings can control the matchups a little more and get Kempe out in more advantageous situations.

If Kempe could generate double-digit attempts in both games in Edmonton, it stands to reason he can have another strong shooting night in Los Angeles, where his shot volume was higher all season.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Playoff Patrick Kane arrives for Rangers: ‘Makes it all worth it’

It's been a roller coaster of a season for Patrick Kane, who found himself donning another team's jersey for the first time after the Chicago Blackhawks traded him prior to the deadline.

The 34-year-old may be rocking new threads, but he showed his usual playoff prowess, scoring his first postseason goal as a New York Ranger during Thursday's Game 2 victory over the New Jersey Devils.

"It's special," he said after the 5-1 decision that gave the Blueshirts a commanding 2-0 series lead. "It was obviously a tough decision, leaving Chicago, but I think these are the moments you leave and come to New York - for a situation like this, right?

"You're on a good team, there's gonna be moments in the playoffs where you're called on to step up and try and produce. It was nice to do that tonight. Makes it all worth it."

Kane is used to being called upon to deliver in big moments. He won three Stanley Cup championships and one Conn Smythe Trophy with the Blackhawks, and he has the fifth most playoff points among active players in the league:

Rank Player GP G P
1 Sidney Crosby 180 71 201
2 Evgeni Malkin 177 67 180
3 Nikita Kucherov 138 53 157
4 Alex Ovechkin 147 72 141
5 Patrick Kane 138 53 136

Kane last suited up for a playoff game in 2019-20, when the Blackhawks bested the Edmonton Oilers in the qualifying round before being ousted by the Vegas Golden Knights.

With his playoff hiatus now behind him, Kane said he feels the same way that he always does in the postseason.

"There's nothing like playoff hockey, getting in there and scoring a playoff goal, just being part of the action," he said.

Kane led the Rangers with three points during Game 2 and was pleased with his response after describing his performance during the series opener as "passive."

New York was outshot and outchanced with Kane on the ice in Game 1, but it was a different story Thursday. The Rangers owned 57.9% of the shot attempts, 79.6% of the expected goals, and outshot the Devils 8-2 when the veteran winger was out there at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick.

Prior to Game 2, Kane hinted at what was to come.

"There's more that I have to give. People should expect more from me," Kane said following Wednesday's practice, per the New York Post's Larry Brooks. "I think there have been some good moments, but it hasn't really been as consistent yet."

Next up for Kane is his first playoff game in Madison Square Garden as a Ranger on Saturday night.

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Stanley Cup Eastern Conference betting: Looking at in-series value after Game 2s

Eight Game 2s spread across two nights featured some good and some bad for our in-series plays after each opener, with the Panthers, Stars, and Maple Leafs bouncing back from losses whose underlying metrics suggested better results might be ahead.

As series change sites this weekend, it's worth a closer look at the first segment of each series. We'll start in the Eastern Conference, with four more in the West to come.

Bruins (-270) @ Panthers (+220)

Game 3: Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Game 4: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Even-strength numbers

TEAM xG HDC HDG
Bruins 4.16 16 2
Panthers 7.28 23 2

(xG: expected goals; HDC: high-danger chances; HDG: high-danger goals)

The Panthers' regular-season metrics suggested they might be able to compete with the Bruins, but a 63% expected goals share is above and beyond. Predictably, Linus Ullmark has been up to the task against the Panthers' high-danger chances (HDC), but five goals against on non-high-danger chances are a surprise. That's undermined the Bruins' two power-play goals and shorthanded goal to the Panthers' zero special-teams scores.

Is there a bet?

If we didn't know what logos these numbers were associated with, we'd jump at the chance to back a team that's returning home after driving most of the play on the road and due for a special-teams breakthrough. With two chances to win at a plus-money price at home, the Panthers are worth a pair of bets this weekend in hopes they win at least one and also cash earlier tickets on over 5.5 games or +2.5 games.

Hurricanes (-800) @ Islanders (+550)

Game 3: Friday, 7 p.m. ET
Game 4: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Even-strength numbers

TEAM xG HDC HDG
Hurricanes 4.49 16 1
Islanders 4.84 26 1

We thought the Islanders might be up for a better effort in Game 2, and they were. They just forgot that you don't want to give up a goal off a puck your own team swatted, give up another goal on a bank shot off your goalie's head, and then get high-sticked in front of two officials without a call. Otherwise, a 14-5 advantage in high-danger chances bodes well for their return home, even if it'll be tough to climb out of an 0-2 hole against the Hurricanes.

With 42 total even-strength HDC in two games, the Islanders are supposed to have the goaltending advantage in a more wide-open game, but Antti Raanta has stopped 30 of 31 high-danger chances at all strengths.

Is there a bet?

We were hoping to get an underdog price with the Isles back home, but the market pushed them out to -120. With the metrics above due for a correction on the scoreboard, hopefully that comes one game late. The Isles are still worth backing in Game 3, Game 4, and at +2.5 series games.

Maple Leafs (-165) @ Lightning (+135)

Game 3: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET

Even-strength numbers

TEAM xG HDC HDG
Maple Leafs 4.8 27 4
Lightning 2.95 12 4

On the scoreboard, it looked like the Maple Leafs flipped the script on the Lightning in Game 2. But answering a 7-3 loss with a 7-2 win had more to do with converting 3-of-12 HDC at even strength and going 2-of-6 on the power play - including one in the first minute - instead of giving up four power-play goals and an early goal against like they did in Game 1.

Is there a bet?

With positions on the Leafs to win the series - and to do so in six games or fewer - there's no need to back them at a shorter price than we'd hoped for in Game 3. However, it changes the calculus if Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak aren't ready to go. If you haven't committed on this series going forward, the lopsided even-strength metrics and the Leafs' good road record make them an inviting bet against a thin defense, but Ilya Samsonov still needs to do better than stopping four of six high-danger chances at even strength.

Devils (+360) @ Rangers (-500)

Game 3: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

TEAM xG HDC HDG
Devils 3.97 20 0
Rangers 3.18 18 3

The Devils are the only team that dropped its first two home games, and you have to feel for them. After a coming-out season, the young Devils got matched up with their local rivals and are getting thoroughly Ranger'd.

As usual, the metrics don't love New York, but sure enough, Igor Shesterkin is 20-for-20 against the Devils' even-strength high-danger chances and leads the league in playoff goals saved above expectation so far. Making matters worse, Vitek Vanecek has been the worst goalie of the playoffs this side of Marc-Andre Fleury.

You could see it coming from outside the arena, but the Rangers' 3-of-18 converted HDC is above the league average of one in every eight, and scoring on 4-of-10 power plays is above expectations as well. That's just their recipe for winning.

Is there a bet?

With no sign of either goaltender changing their stripes as the scene shifts to Broadway, coin-flip metrics between the two creases aren't enough to justify putting more money toward New Jersey.

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Ruff: Devils ready for ‘incredible challenge’ down 0-2 vs. Rangers

It won't be easy for the New Jersey Devils to climb out of an 0-2 hole against the New York Rangers once their first-round series shifts to Madison Square Garden on Saturday, but head coach Lindy Ruff is keeping his spirits high.

"We talked about the way we started the year, going 0-2, and what we did after that," he told reporters Thursday after the Devils' second straight 5-1 loss to their Metropolitan Division rivals. "The team has always been up for an incredible challenge, and they're gonna battle to the bitter end."

The Devils kicked off their historic 2022-23 campaign with back-to-back losses to the Philadelphia Flyers and Detroit Red Wings by a combined score of 10-4.

New Jersey won three of its next four games before embarking on a 13-game win streak, which tied the 2000-01 Devils for the longest run in franchise history.

The Devils ended a four-year playoff drought this campaign and set a new team record in wins (52) and points (112) while boasting one of the league's most potent offences with 289 goals for.

Despite their regular-season success, the Devils have been limited to just two goals against the Rangers, neither of which have come at even strength.

Star forward Jack Hughes only has one point in the series, which came on a penalty-shot tally in Game 1.

"We're not playing to our standard. It's biting us in the ass right now," he said. "We're frustrated, obviously, but it's a long series. We want to bounce back."

He added, "We just got whacked for the second straight game. … We've got more opportunities, we've gotta go to the Garden and play a lot better."

The Devils found more success on the road than in their own barn in the regular season:

Location Record Points P% GF/GP GA/GP
Home 24-13-4 52 .634 3.34 2.56
Road 28-9-4 60 .732 3.71 2.85

"I've got a lot of faith in this team, I've got a lot of faith in the group," Ruff said. "They gave me everything they had the whole year. They're facing some veteran players that have been through wars.

"There was some frustration tonight, which comes along with not being in a battle like this, but this group has got a lot of heart. They've got a lot of desire."

Puck drops on Game 3 on Saturday in the Big Apple at 8 p.m. ET.

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7 players who could sway Vegas-Winnipeg series as Jets pursue the upset

The Golden Knights bounced back at home Thursday, topping the Jets 5-2 to knot their first-round playoff series at a win apiece. Keep an eye on these seven important players when the matchup moves north for Games 3 and 4.

Mark Stone

Chris Unger / Getty Images

The downside of activating a star from long-term injury reserve as the playoffs begin, conveniently enabling his team to blow past the salary cap, is the player may need time to ramp up to his peak.

Stone looked rusty in Game 1, his first appearance in three months following back surgery. He forced some giveaways, flashing his signature defensive skill, but Vegas was severely outplayed and got outscored 2-0 in his five-on-five shifts.

Game 2 was different. Stone shone in the third period, firing a smart feed that led to Chandler Stephenson's winner before he drove the net and slipped open in the slot to pot a pair of insurance goals.

Stone scored efficiently this season before he went under the knife. He ranked third on the Golden Knights in points per 60 minutes at five-on-five and almost cracked the top 50 league-wide. Born and raised in Winnipeg, Stone building on his Game 2 breakout in his hometown would be massive for Vegas.

Pierre-Luc Dubois

Jeff Bottari / NHL / Getty Images

Adam Lowry's three goals lead the series, but it was Dubois who set the tone for Winnipeg's opening 5-1 win.

The top-line center threw eight hits, saucered passes into scoring areas, and either set up or tallied the Jets' crucial first two goals in Game 1. Feeling himself, Dubois chirped Vegas goalie Laurent Brossoit as he left one celebration circle.

The most noticeable Jet in the opener was quieter Thursday, though Dubois, Kyle Connor, and Mark Scheifele did create 11 of Winnipeg's 20 scoring chances at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick. The Jets owned the neutral zone in the first period and attacked with speed, enabling the Dubois line to pelt Brossoit with shots during the squad's finest spell of play.

Dubois has been a beast in the playoffs before. Bullying the Maple Leafs in the 2020 bubble, he scored a hat trick in one memorable Blue Jackets win but entered this round mired in an 11-game playoff goal drought. Dubois oozes confidence when he's at his best, supplying the swagger the Jets lacked as they slid to eighth place in the Western Conference.

Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault

David Becker / NHL / Getty Images

The Golden Knights' offensive headliners personify the two phases of the franchise's growth. An original Golden Misfit, Marchessault's star turn in the 2017-18 expansion season helped Vegas knock off Winnipeg to reach the Stanley Cup Final. Eichel was a blockbuster trade addition brought in to make Vegas a perennial contender.

Lacking urgency, Eichel posted poor shot metrics in Game 1, his career playoff debut. Marchessault produced a secondary assist but didn't put a shot on target. The agitated home crowd booed a futile late power-play attempt when Eichel and a few teammates cycled the puck aimlessly.

Eichel awakened on Thursday. He scored on a dexterous tip, his drives to the net induced multiple penalty calls, and he rang a slapper off Connor Hellebuyck's mask that cut the goalie on the eyebrow.

A dozen Vegas skaters netted 10-plus goals this season, but besides Reilly Smith, only Eichel and Marchessault bagged more than 20. It's vital they drive play when head coach Bruce Cassidy deploys them together.

Josh Morrissey and Dylan DeMelo

Chris Unger / Getty Images

Morrissey, Winnipeg's power-play conductor and most dynamic defenseman, scored 76 points out of the blue in 2022-23 to double his previous career high. DeMelo, the Jets' top pair's defensive conscience, helped tilt the ice (53.7% expected goals share) when he skated with Morrissey at five-on-five over the past two years.

Steady in the series, they've only been on the ice for one Vegas goal apiece. Both defensemen have recorded an assist. Beautifying the little things, Morrissey dislodged pucks from sticks and completed short, savvy passes that sparked Jets breakouts, but he didn't bend either game in Vegas to his will.

Vegas' defense corps is big, battle-tested, and fairly skilled. Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore earned downballot Norris Trophy votes in recent seasons. That Morrissey leveled up to vie for the award himself this year means he's capable of being this matchup's best blue-liner. Now's the time to make it happen.

Connor Hellebuyck

David Becker / NHL / Getty Images

Back when Brossoit was Hellebuyck's teammate, he received all of 45 starts over his three seasons as the Jets’ backup goalie. Durable and dazzling, Hellebuyck denies his partners regular playing time and can win a series practically by himself.

Hellebuyck’s .920 save percentage was fourth-best this season among NHL regulars, per Natural Stat Trick. However, his save percentage on the penalty kill (.884) was pedestrian and his save rate on high-danger shots (.828) ranked 28th league-wide.

The Golden Knights need to exploit those vulnerabilities. They're 0-for-7 overall with the man advantage, but they lit up Hellebuyck in Game 2 by continually getting the puck to the goalmouth or other dangerous areas.

Hellebuyck is credited with every postseason win in Jets franchise history. No Western Conference playoff goalie is as experienced or formidable. By the standings, the Jets entered this series as 16-point underdogs, but it won't feel that way if Hellebuyck rebounds to dominate on home ice.

Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.

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Shane Malloy on finalizing NHL Draft lists

Shane Malloy from Hockey Prospect Radio chats with Dan and Sat about hockey fandoms, scouting, and who the Canucks should target in the draft. 

This podcast was produced by Ben Basran.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Ryan Johnson on building an identity with the Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Canucks GM Ryan Johnson joins Dan and Sat to discuss yesterday's playoff win. The guys also talk about building a playoff contender. 

This podcast was produced by Ben Basran.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Hedman out for Game 2 vs. Maple Leafs

Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman isn't in the lineup for Game 2 against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday and is considered day-to-day, the team announced.

Hedman missed the final two periods of Game 1 after suffering an undisclosed injury.

Zach Bogosian and Haydn Fleury enter the fold in place of Hedman and fellow defenseman Erik Cernak, who's also sidelined with an injury.

Here are the Lightning's defensive pairings for Game 2:

LD RD
Mikhail Sergachev Darren Raddysh
Ian Cole Nick Perbix
Haydn Fleury Zach Bogosian

Hedman, the 2020 Conn Smythe Trophy winner, has recorded 107 points in 156 career playoff games.

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