Tag Archives: Hockey

‘No one fears a defensive team’: What’s driving hockey’s offensive boom

Steve Yzerman, the Hall of Fame center turned mastermind general manager, rarely partakes in media interviews. When he does, the Detroit Red Wings executive tends to play his cards close to his chest.

That said, if the topic is right, he may share a pearl of wisdom with the world.

Take his appearance on a national TV broadcast in late November. Vancouver Canucks head coach Rick Tocchet, then an analyst for TNT, asked Yzerman about the astounding number of blown leads during the 2022-23 season.

"Yeah," Yzerman replied. "I wouldn't say I have a real scientific answer. But I think our game - the league, in general - is in a real transition."

Jeff Vinnick / Getty Images

In today's NHL, Yzerman continued, the attacking team prioritizes puck possession and motion within the offensive zone. Defensemen activate often, which creates confusion for the defending team and leads to goals against.

"The offensive side of coaching has overtaken the defensive side," the GM added. "Now teams, coaches are going to have to adjust and come up with better defensive techniques or systems to defend a little bit."

Traditionally, hockey coaches have obsessed over defensive structure and habits: backchecking, blocking shots, clogging passing lanes, battling along the boards, closing gaps, and clearing the front of the net. It's ingrained in coaches' collective identity to care deeply about defensive details.

With the NHL plunging deeper into an era of offensive dominance, where league-wide scoring continues to hover well above six goals per game, how are coaches adapting? How much credit do coaches deserve for the uptick?

theScore recently asked eight coaches - four currently running NHL benches and four with loads of experience in lower leagues - those exact questions.

Here's what we learned.

The modern mindset

Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

As of Tuesday morning, the average NHL game this season featured 6.38 goals. If that rate holds until the end of the regular season, 2022-23 will count as the highest-scoring campaign since 1993-94, according to Hockey Reference.

"We want to score 10. Every night," Carolina Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind'Amour told theScore over All-Star Weekend. "Now, we don't want to give up any, but we're trying to score 10. I think where the game's really improved in that regard is that (most NHL) coaches think the same way now."

This season's power plays have been converting on 21.4% of all opportunities - an absurd rate reached only in the wide-open 1970s and '80s. Moreover, multi-goal, third-period comebacks have suddenly become fairly common, with 2022-23 having already set the record for most in a single campaign (53).

This chaotic, offense-first product is a continuation of last season when goals per game rose to 6.28 from 5.88 in 2020-21 and 6.04 in 2019-20. Power-play success rate rose to 20.6% from 19.8% in '20-21 and 20.0% in '19-20.

"The one thing I know for certain is that no one fears a defensive team," Buffalo Sabres head coach Don Granato said when asked about his overarching philosophy. "Coaches and teams have to strategize to put people on their heels when they know you can score, and that commands respect."

Ben Green / Getty Images

Granato, whose team ranks third in goals for per contest this season, said he doesn't diminish or overlook the defensive side of the game. In his mind, Buffalo's defensive issues (27th in goals against per game) can be traced back to a youthful lineup making too many poor decisions with the puck.

"But yes," Granato said of aggressively pursuing goals, "it is and will be a deliberate focus. Always. It's always been like that with my coaching. Guys want to score, and it's a lot more fun to watch. Fans want to be entertained. So from the outset, yes, a couple of years ago we were dead last in scoring in the NHL. Now we're very close to first in the NHL in scoring, just tiny percentage points away. And that's by design and by effort by our guys."

The uptick in goal scoring can be attributed to all kinds of macro changes over the past decade. The NHL cracked down on slashing and cross-checking. Expansion created roughly 50 new jobs, which means players who previously competed in the minors are now in the NHL. Skaters everywhere gained access to better stick technology while goalie equipment has been slimmed down. Most elite youth players train with skills and skating coaches, raising the baseline of offensive ability at all ages and levels.

"We have better athletes all across the board," Brind'Amour said. "They've pushed the bar up, and now everyone's getting better and faster and stronger and more skilled because they've worked on it 24/7 since they were 10 years old."

Added Dallas Stars head coach Pete DeBoer: "We've got so much young talent on rosters now that you didn't have before. You used to put out your third- and fourth-line checkers to lock down games as early as the second period if you've got a lead. Now you've got young, skilled players looking to score the entire game. That's why you see the swings. ... No lead is safe."

Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

Coaches pull goalies earlier and more often, putting extra pucks in both nets. Power plays have been optimized by using four or five forwards, loading up the first unit with three or four deadly shooting threats, and disorienting the penalty kill with passes from the bumper spot and goal lines.

DeBoer, who's coached five different NHL clubs, noted that pro bench bosses are taking advantage of statistical and video analysis "more than they ever have in the history of the game" - especially during special-teams meetings.

"Players are a lot more inquisitive now. They do want to know the why and how things work," said Danton Cole, who's coached pro, junior, and college players for more than two decades, most recently at Michigan State. "The analytics of the game can help you offensively because you can show players how to attack through the middle of the ice or get off the wall in the offensive zone."

Teams have also altered how they operate at five-on-five - more carry-in zone entries, higher shot volume from the slot area, and a preference for east-west passing, just to name a few trends. The focus on maintaining possession and generating quality looks shows clearly in the five-on-five high-danger data:

James Richmond, GM and coach of the OHL's Mississauga Steelheads, said it's vitally important to frame defensive play in an incentive-rich way at the junior level. "The more we can pressure the player with the puck, the better chance we get it back and get it back soon," he tells his players.

"Every good junior player comes up through minor hockey having the puck a lot. That's not a new thing, but it's true," Richmond said. "As you go up levels, the puck is on your stick less and less. So, the goal is to get the puck back.

"How do we do that?" he continued. "We don't send five guys after the puck carrier, like a team of six-year-olds. There are certain areas you can occupy on the ice to make the puck carrier feel uncomfortable. You ideally want that player to pass or shoot it before they're really ready to pass or shoot. And if you can get somebody to do something out of their comfort zone, there's a good chance they're going to make a mistake, and you'll get the puck back."

Counterstriking - the act of turning defense into offense in the blink of an eye - is usually what follows a turnover in today's high-paced game. And you can't beat instant gratification in 2023.

Mark LoMoglio / Getty Images

It helps that modern defensemen are eager to start or join the attack to overwhelm the opposition. The stay-at-home archetype, which favors pucks off the glass and brute physicality over carry-out zone exits and effective stick checking, is essentially extinct. The job description for blue-liners has been rewritten for mobility, creativity, and problem-solving ability.

"Players now are interchangeable," said DeBoer, citing how frequently defensemen act like forwards and how often forwards must cover for them.

Ben Simon of the AHL's Grand Rapids Griffins maintains "the old adage of 'your best defense is a good offense' is so relevant" for today's players and coaches. Everybody's eager to push play in the right direction - with numbers.

"I have seen - probably in the last four or five years - defensemen being way more active in really all aspects offensively, whether that's off a faceoff or off the rush or off a breakout or off sustained O-zone play," Simon said. "They're coming through a hockey system now where they're being encouraged to be more involved with the puck. And there's a natural correlation with coaching."

The extreme approach

Michael Martin / Getty Images

Creating offense is at the core of the Brooks Bandits' program. The Alberta-based junior A team that helped develop Colorado Avalanche superstar Cale Makar scouts offensive dynamos almost exclusively, centers recruiting pitches and practice drills around scoring, and plays a high-risk brand of hockey.

It's all part of "flipping the script" inside teenage players' heads.

"There aren't really any players who get excited about defending," longtime Brooks GM and head coach Ryan Papaioannou said of the "No. 1 challenge" in junior. "Instead of trying to fight that battle head-on," he added, "we just start on the offensive side, get everybody to buy into that, then go from there."

The Stanley Cup-winning Chicago Blackhawks teams of the 2010s inspired Papaioannou to go all-in on offense. He loved how Chicago's defensemen defied tradition by always being on the move and finding ways to get involved in the offensive zone. The Bandits covet defensemen with strong skating, high intelligence, and puck skills. Size and physicality are far down the priority list.

Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

Brooks' emphasis on offense is partially based on the widely held belief that a team can achieve defensively sound hockey through old-fashioned hard work. "I think 85% of playing defense is just straight-up effort," Papaioannou said.

The program graduated Makar, arguably the world's best defenseman (and the best prototype for the playing style), and Columbus Blue Jackets first-rounder Corson Ceulemans to the NCAA. This year's Bandits, who won 53 of 60 regular-season games, are chasing a third consecutive junior A national title.

"To try and do this in the NHL - at the scale we are - might be a little extreme," Papaioannou said. "The players you turn the puck over to in the NHL are going to burn you. You'd get eaten up pretty good most nights. But you could find a balance and bring up the level of offense in many different ways."

The inevitable counterpunch

As Yzerman suggested during his TNT interview in November, a market correction will come at some point. Coaches will try to outsmart each other, and, perhaps within only a few years, NHL goal rates will stop trending up.

There are several factors out of coaches' control - such as changing officiating standards and the young player's mindset - but they still hold immense power. Look no further than three-on-three overtime, where the chaotic action from early seasons has slowly been replaced by a coaching chess match.

"There's always a counterpunch to these trends. Coaches will figure out a way to combat this latest jump in scoring, even if it's reined in just a little," said Cole, who started coaching in the middle of the so-called dead-puck era.

Glenn James / Getty Images

Richmond, who runs the OHL's Steelheads, likens hockey tactics to fashion.

"It goes out of style, and it comes back, it goes, and it comes back. Why does it leave? Well, people get tired of it," Richmond said, chuckling. "In hockey, when you're always doing something over and over to create scoring chances, the other team sees it and builds a defensive scheme against it. Then it becomes harder again. So, it'll slow down and then come back again."

Every spring provides a temporary shift. In the playoffs, games tighten up as players fight for every inch of ice, officials put their whistles away, and coaches can key in on the opposition during a series. While the offensive mindset doesn't vanish, defensive structure certainly takes over.

"I think it's in coaches' DNA. We'll try and coach the skill out of the game as much as we can," DeBoer said with a hearty laugh. "We'll try and defend. Come playoff time, you see everyone else buckle down."

Vegas Golden Knights head coach Bruce Cassidy recalled hearing Darryl Sutter of the Calgary Flames remark that the NHL has transitioned from being a 3-2 league to a 4-3 league. All things being equal, it's a nightly race to four goals.

That's fine with Cassidy. The NHL is in the entertainment business. Goals sell tickets. But he believes an all-offense approach would devalue the product.

"I just don't want it to become a 6-5 league," Cassidy said. "I don't think that's great for hockey. But I guess, until that happens, we'll see."

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Tuesday player props: Hughes to fire at home

We kicked off the week in strong fashion with a perfect 3-0 night of shot props.

We'll try and replicate that effort with three more plays for a busy Tuesday night on the ice.

Jack Hughes over 3.5 shots (-132)

Hughes is one of the NHL's most consistent volume shooters. He's gone over his total at a 64% clip this season, including a remarkable 71% on home ice.

Hughes has hit a new gear with his shot generation of late, especially when playing in New Jersey. He's registered four-plus shots in nine of the last 10 games, averaging an impressive 7.7 attempts in that span.

Tuesday, Hughes finds himself in a sneaky good matchup against a Wild team that's allowing shots at a high clip. Minnesota ranks 28th in five-on-five shots allowed since the trade deadline and is bleeding them to centers in particular.

Only the Coyotes, Blackhawks, and Golden Knights have allowed more shots per game to the position over the past 10. Expect Hughes to capitalize.

Martin Necas over 2.5 shots (-132)

Necas has some of the most insane home/road splits you'll find. Unlike most offensive players, he's much more productive on the road. His success rate away from Carolina (71%) is actually 24% higher than his home output (47%).

I like his chances of getting the job done once again versus the Rangers. They're giving up a lot of rubber right now, especially to wingers.

New York ranks in the bottom five in shots against per game versus lefties and righties over the past 10.

With Andrei Svechnikov out of the lineup, Necas should carry more of the workload offensively. He'll skate on the top line alongside Sebastian Aho, as well as on the top power play.

Given New York's struggles preventing shots, Necas' road success, and the increased usage, our favorite road warrior will have every opportunity to get the job done once again.

David Pastrnak over 4.5 shots (-110)

Pastrnak is a certified Senators killer. He's recorded at least five shots in five of six meetings since the beginning of the 2021-22 campaign, falling one shy in the lone exception.

But Pastrnak hasn't just squeaked out shot victories against Ottawa. He's absolutely shredded them, averaging nearly 11 attempts per game over those six matchups.

For a perspective on how insane that volume is, Pastrnak leads the NHL in attempts this season by a whopping 62, and his per-game average is 8.7. That's been enough for him to hit five or more at an impressive 57% clip. You can imagine how strong his rate is when flirting with 11.

There's every reason to believe Pastrnak could put up another big number against the Senators this time around. They're susceptible to giving up shots in bulk, and even more so on the road.

Look for Pastrnak to pile up the shots against an exploitable, and fatigued, Senators team.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

How can the Canucks fix the PK by next season?

Dan and Bik discuss improvements the Canucks need to make to their PK by next season, who should win the Norris, and much more. Also, hear from Don Taylor of Donnie and Dhali stops by to talk about international hockey, the state of the tank, and more.

This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Searching for sustainability in the Canucks

Dan and Bik break down how the Canucks have been playing recently, what it can be attributed to, and more. Also, hear from The Fourth Period's Irfaan Gaffar on that, Elias Pettersson's next contract, and more.

This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Crosby stays levelheaded with Penguins’ playoff dreams in peril

After making the playoffs for 16 consecutive campaigns, it's near impossible to imagine a postseason field that doesn't include the Pittsburgh Penguins, but that might soon become a reality.

The Penguins are barely holding onto a wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. Their already shaky positioning wasn't helped by their current three-game losing streak that saw them get outscored 10-2 by the New York Rangers in an embarrassing back-to-back set.

Despite the uncertainty of an underwhelming season, captain Sidney Crosby is remaining calm.

"We've been in those situations, and you gotta turn the page," Crosby told reporters Monday, two days after his side's rough 6-0 loss at Madison Square Garden. "Whether you win a game or lose a game, you gotta learn from it. It was a tough lesson. Those aren't fun games to be a part of, but you gotta move on.

"We know the importance of all the games from here on in. We've just gotta find a way to make sure we put a full 60 together, give ourselves a chance."

Prior to the Penguins' recent skid - their eighth multi-game losing streak of the season - they held the first wild-card spot and a two-point edge over the New York Islanders.

Now, the Islanders are ahead of the Penguins, while the Florida Panthers lie in wait after winning five of their last six games:

Team Position GP Points
New York Islanders WC1 71 (36-27-8) 80
Pittsburgh Penguins WC2 69 (34-25-10) 78
Florida Panthers No playoffs 69 (35-27-7) 77
Washington Capitals No playoffs 71 (33-31-7) 73
Buffalo Sabres No playoffs 69 (33-30-6) 72

Like the Panthers, the Islanders are also trending upwards with five victories in their last seven contests.

To be fair, the Penguins have had to deal with their fair share of injuries - two of their three trade deadline acquisitions are currently considered week-to-week - but they haven't been at their best this season. Pittsburgh has allowed 3.26 goals against per game, its worst clip since 2006-07, which is when the squad's impressive playoff streak began.

The organization fought to keep its iconic core of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang together in the offseason, and they've done their part. Crosby and Malkin are Pittsburgh's top two point-getters with 83 and 72, respectively, while Letang paces the team in average ice time (24:23).

The Penguins' next chance to snap the skid will come Monday against the Ottawa Senators.

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NHL weekday betting guide: True moneylines for every game

Barring an incredible hot streak and a collapse from the teams in front of them, the Ottawa Senators have likely excused themselves from Stanley Cup Playoffs contention. A win against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday night could resuscitate their chances, but in the three-point game era, it's very difficult to make up ground in the final weeks of the season.

Ottawa lost six of its last seven games, and its slide has come in conjunction with an injury to Cam Talbot, who missed 10 games when the season began (Ottawa went 4-6).

When the Senators (now 20-1 to make the playoffs) miss the postseason, will it simply be because their veteran 35-year-old stopgap starter wasn't available at the beginning and virtual end of their season?

Here's a look at the four goaltenders the Senators used more than once this season and how they've fared relative to the average goaltender, using goals saved above expectation.

PLAYER GSAx GSAx/60 MIN.
Cam Talbot 5.04 0.17
Anton Forsberg 2.94 0.12
Mads Sogaard -3.48 -0.31
Kevin Mandolese 3.17 1.04

Per 60 minutes, Anton Forsberg has held up in deputizing for Talbot, while Mads Sogaard has been the weak link of the trio. In what is likely a good example of small-sample bias, Kevin Mandolese excelled in the three appearances he had this season.

While all this is cool for Senators fans, as bettors it's theoretically need-to-know information, especially with Forsberg out for the season and Sogaard the nominal starter until Talbot comes back. Here's the problem:

PLAYER ML RECORD
Cam Talbot 15-15
Anton Forsberg 11-13
Mads Sogaard 5-6
Kevin Mandolese 1-2

Despite the difference in the metric evaluation of each goaltender, the Senators have been virtually .500 when any of them have started. However, it's important to know what might happen with Sogaard now playing nightly. He went 4-1 in spot starts against five teams that aren't currently in the playoffs, but since getting the No. 1 workload, he's 1-5 - with four games coming against playoff teams.

On the surface, there isn't likely to be a valuable bet on Senators-Penguins on Monday night, as listed below. But if there's a hidden element that would hurt the Sens' rating based on inexperience in net, the Penguins might be the side to back.

The recipe

We started the season using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. The moneyline could also move into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

DATE GAME TRUE ML PRICE TO BET
March 20 OTT@PIT +140/-140 OTT +166/PIT -134
FLA@DET -158/+158 FLA -151/DET +187
CHI@COL +220/-220 CHI +267/COL -210
SJS@EDM +221/-221 SJS +268/EDM -211
CGY@LAK +111/-111 CGY +131/LAK -107
March 21 MIN@NJD +187/-187 MIN +225/NJD -179
OTT@BOS +251/-251 OTT +309/BOS -239
CAR@NYR -124/+124 CAR -119/NYR +146
TBL@MTL -193/+193 TBL -184/MTL +232
NSH@BUF +149/-149 NSH +176/BUF -143
FLA@PHI -124/+124 FLA -119/PHI +146
CBJ@WSH +160/-160 CBJ +190/WSH -153
TOR@NYI -120/+120 TOR -115/NYI +141
ARI@WPG +176/-176 ARI +210/WPG -169
DET@STL +137/-137 DET +162/STL -132
SEA@DAL +139/-139 SEA +165/DAL -134
VGK@VAN -116/+116 VGK -111/VAN +136
CGY@ANA -151/+151 CGY -145/ANA +179
March 22 PIT@COL +116/-116 PIT +136/COL -111
ARI@EDM +300/-300 ARI +376/EDM -285
March 23 MIN@PHI -104/+104 MIN +107/PHI +115
TOR@FLA +120/-120 TOR +141/FLA -115
CHI@WSH +185/-185 CHI +222/WSH -177
NYR@CAR +172/-172 NYR +206/CAR -165
MTL@BOS +318/-318 MTL +401/BOS -301
TBL@OTT -129/+129 TBL -124/OTT +152
STL@DET +123/-123 STL +145/DET -118
SEA@NSH -120/+120 SEA -116/NSH +142
PIT@DAL +149/-149 PIT +176/DAL -143
VGK@CGY +123/-123 VGK +145/CGY -118
SJS@VAN +148/-148 SJS +175/VAN -142
WPG@ANA -146/+146 WPG -140/ANA +173

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Monday best bets: Avalanche to start fast vs. Blackhawks

We begin the week with 10 teams in action. Among that group are two of the bottom-three seeds in the NHL. Let's take a look at the best ways to attack them.

Sharks (+270) @ Oilers (-340)

Things are going from bad to worse for the Sharks. They've been an unmitigated disaster since the trade deadline, winning just once in eight tries.

In that span, they've scored 17 goals and conceded 37, posting a league-worst minus-20 goal differential.

They're severely lacking scoring punch without Timo Meier, and they're getting crushed defensively.

Only two teams have conceded expected goals at a higher rate across all situations. Given the level of goaltending they've gotten from James Reimer and Kaapo Kahkonen, it's no surprise so many chances against are leading to goal after goal.

I don't think the bleeding is going to stop against the Oilers. They're 6-2-0 since deadline day and have generated expected goals at a top-five clip league-wide.

With Evander Kane healthy again and newcomer Mattias Ekholm making the team more stable defensively, an already strong Oilers side is as deep and talented as its been at any point this season.

The Oilers have averaged nearly 4.70 goals per game over the past couple of weeks, which ranks them second in the NHL.

They're scoring at will, and I don't see any reason why that'll change against a Sharks team in its worst form of the campaign.

Look for the Oilers to make easy work of the Sharks on home soil.

Bet: Oilers -1.5 (-145)

Blackhawks (+380) @ Avalanche (-500)

The Blackhawks have picked up seven points over eight games since the trade deadline but don't let that fool you; they aren't playing well.

Whether you look at shot, chance, or expected goal differentials, they're laboring across the board - just as they have all season.

The reason they've found some success of late: unsustainably high percentages. The Blackhawks are among the league leaders in shooting percentage and save percentage over the past couple of weeks.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know a team with their talent - or lack thereof - isn't going to keep company with the likes of the Bruins and Rangers over the long haul. It makes sense for those teams to shoot the lights out and/or get great goaltending. The same can't be said of the Blackhawks.

I think they're due to hit a wall sooner rather than later, and a road date against the Avalanche is the perfect time for that regression to kick in.

The Avs are 6-2-1 since deadline day and are full value for their record, having controlled better than 57% of the expected goal share.

They're dominating their opponents and generally starting fast, as has been the case all season. Despite all the injuries faced, the Avs are top 10 in first-period goals for and top five in first-period goals against.

Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are 31st in opening-period goals for and 29th in goals conceded. They struggle mightily at both ends of the ice.

Expect their slow starts to continue at altitude against a significantly better opponent.

Bet: Avalanche first period -0.5 (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday player props: McDavid to feast on Sharks

We have a small but fun five-game slate on the menu for Monday night. Let's take a look at a few of the best ways to attack it.

Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 shots (-145)

MacKinnon is shooting the lights out right now. He's gone over his total in six of the past nine home games, over which time he's averaged just under eight shot attempts per contest.

Of the three games he's gone under, two were against very structured, slower-paced teams in the Flames and Kraken. I don't think the Blackhawks fit those criteria.

Only two sides have conceded five-on-five shots at a higher rate than Chicago since the trade deadline. This is a very strong matchup for Colorado in that game state, and its elite power play can be expected to make noise against anybody. MacKinnon should generate plenty in all situations.

It's also worth noting the Blackhawks rank 31st in shots against per game to centers over the last 10. That's their worst ranking against any position.

Even juiced, I see plenty of value in backing MacKinnon at home in this spot.

Kris Letang over 2.5 shots (-125)

Letang continues to fire from anywhere and everywhere on home ice. The veteran Penguins blue-liner ranks third in shot attempts (81) across the entire NHL over his past 10 home games.

The only two players who rank ahead of him, Jason Robertson and Roman Josi, always have shots lines set at 3.5, and they're often juiced toward the over. Yet Letang is priced at 2.5.

Letang has hit in eight of his last 10 in Pittsburgh and attempted no fewer than five shots in any of those games. He's generating enough volume to get the job done every single night.

Although the Senators are a competent defensive side in preventing shots, their numbers are much worse on the road. I think they can be had; expect Letang to generate his fair share of shots.

Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots (-115)

I love, love, love, McDavid in this spot. Love him. He's gone over his shot total in 66% of his games this season, including a ridiculous 74% hit rate on home ice.

If we isolate the last 20 home dates, he's registered at least four shots on 16 occasions, falling one shy in all of the exceptions. He's cooking.

Now a scorching-hot McDavid draws a putrid Sharks team that's seen the bottom fall out since the deadline. San Jose has won only once in eight tries, its five-on-five numbers have plummeted, and the team has been taking a ton of penalties.

I don't think the Sharks have the depth or defensive prowess to hold up at five-on-five. Their recent tendency to parade to the box should also serve McDavid well considering he leads the Oilers in power-play shots this season.

There's a ton to like about McDavid in this spot. Quite frankly, I think this price would be better served attached to 4.5 shots, not 3.5.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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