Winning bets is fun. Losing them? Not so much. The Variance Monster bit us on Monday as the Islanders and Maple Leafs racked up an unforeseeable 7.5 expected goal (xG) count at even strength, sending the game over a total that dropped a full goal from 6.5 to 5.5 before the opening faceoff.

Beating the market with that kind of closing-line value should provide better results, but that's the nature of sports. Things like the Stars outperforming the Sabres 15-5 in high-danger chances can happen, and when you get the wrong Buffalo goalie, a bet can go awry. Fortunately, there are plenty of wagers to choose from Tuesday as we look to get back in the winning saddle.

Sharks (+130) @ Red Wings (-150)

We'll start with our bread and butter: a moneyline value play fit for the weekly betting guide. With a season-long 52.3 xG% and a 55.8% high-danger chance rate at even-strength, the Sharks will offer are value often. The Red Wings are the inverse, with five-on-five percentage rates in the mid-40s.

Both teams have middle-of-the-road power plays, but San Jose's penalty kill is third in the NHL. Why don't the Sharks win more games? Goaltending. In most cases, finding consistent value with one team means the goalies aren't up to snuff.

James Reimer hasn't been good this season, but he's the best option for San Jose. Ville Husso, meanwhile, hasn't been much better in his first season with the Red Wings; this matchup is close to even, with my projections giving the Sharks a 48.6% chance to win. A +130 moneyline implies San Jose will win 43.5% of the time, and a 5% edge is enough to take a shot on the Sharks.

Pick: Sharks (+130)

Golden Knights (+150) @ Devils (-175)

Bettors are jumping ship on the Golden Knights, whose Pacific Division lead has dwindled with a 5-7 moneyline record since the Christmas break. Still, Vegas is tied with the Hurricanes in allowing the fewest even-strength high-danger chances in the NHL in that time.

Known for having a substantial home-ice advantage, the Golden Knights are an impressive 15-4-2 on the road this season. They shouldn't fear traveling to face the Devils - who are a surprising .500 on the moneyline at home. New Jersey has experienced regression of its own after an incredible start, ranking 23rd in xG% at five-on-five since Christmas.

Season-long metrics indicate the Golden Knights have a 43.5% chance to win a game that's lined as though they're 40% likely. Given home-road splits and the Devils' average play of late, jump back on the Vegas boat at +150.

Pick: Golden Knights (+150)

Jets (-120) @ Predators (+100)

In the last of our value plays, we've got the Predators as 55% favorites at home against the Jets, who aren't the same team on the road that they are at the Canada Life Centre. They carry even-strength play at a 53% rate in Winnipeg, but it's the inverse on the road, and we're getting even money on Nashville.

The Jets play their last contest of a five-game, eight-day road trip that's taken them from eastern Canada through Philadelphia and down to Music City. The Predators have played just twice in that time, and Juuse Saros continued his strong play at home - where he's a half-goal better than he is on the road - with a Saturday win against the Kings.

Pick: Predators (+100)

Blackhawks (+190) @ Canucks (-227)

This has nothing to do with the numbers, as the metrics in the moneyline guide indicate we need +212 to consider backing the Blackhawks. But these two teams have vastly different vibes around them right now.

Normally, the inclination is to back a team that just fired its head coach because that usually happens midseason after the players have quit on the incumbent. That's not the case in Vancouver, where the Canucks have publicly embarrassed themselves in their handling of fan-favorite Bruce Boudreau. Vancouver's players have had ample opportunity to jump to life and play better defense to protect leads. Instead, they've proven incapable of doing so time and again. That shouldn't immediately change with a new voice in the dressing room.

If the Canucks win, it's because Chicago is bad. But the Blackhawks have won six of their last eight - apparently losing interest in tanking narratives. Historically, they're always up for a trip to Vancouver, and it makes more sense to bet on the team feeling good and giving maximum effort at +190 than to lay a big price amid a messy situation.

Pick: Blackhawks (+190)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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The Toronto Maple Leafs filled the net Monday in a 5-2 win over the New York Islanders, but Mitch Marner was unable to find the scoresheet, ending his franchise-record home point streak at 20 games.

Marner was even reunited with Auston Matthews in the contest after the team came out flat in the first period, but it was the second line of John Tavares, William Nylander, and Calle Jarnkrok that did most of the damage. Nylander collected four points, Tavares notched a goal and an assist, and Jarnkrok bagged a goal.

Darryl Sittler previously held the club record for most consecutive games at home with a point at 18, set in 1977-78. Marner broke the record Jan. 17 with a pair of assists against the Florida Panthers, then added to it with a goal in Toronto's next home game two nights later against the Winnipeg Jets.

Monday's contest was only the second time all season Marner didn't record a point at home. In total, the playmaking winger's tallied 32 points in 25 games at Scotiabank Arena this season, including 29 during the streak.

Marner set the Maple Leafs record for 19 straight overall games with a point earlier in the campaign. He padded his record to 23 before it was snapped, making it the NHL's fourth-longest streak in the last 30 years.

In total, the 25-year-old has registered 56 points in 48 games this season.

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Ottawa Senators assistant coach Bob Jones has ALS, general manager Pierre Dorion announced Tuesday.

"Bob and his family's wishes are to take the courageous step of making his condition public in an effort to drive ALS awareness as he fights this disease," the GM said in a statement.

Jones will continue coaching, and Dorion said the coach has the Senators' full support to take any time away he requires during the season.

"The thoughts and well-wishes of the entire National Hockey League family are with Ottawa Senators assistant coach Bob Jones and his family," NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said in a statement Tuesday. "We admire his courage in making his battle with ALS public, and we will support him and his family in this fight."

Jones is in his fourth season as an assistant coach with the Senators. He previously worked in the AHL and coached in the OHL for over 20 years.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a disease that gradually paralyzes the individual as the brain becomes unable to communicate with muscles in the body.

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TORONTO (AP) — William Nylander had two goals and two assists as the Toronto Maple Leafs beat the slumping New York Islanders 5-2 on Monday night.

John Tavares had a goal and an assist, Calle Jarnkrok and Auston Matthews also scored and Justin Holl had two assists for Toronto, which is 3-0-1 in its last four and 6-2-1 in its last nine. Ilya Samsonov had 31 saves.

Anders Lee scored twice for New York in its ninth loss in 10 games (1-6-3). Ilya Sorokin had 33 saves.

Trailing 2-1 in the second period, Toronto it on a power play at 7:53 when Samsonov caught the Islanders on a long change with a stretch pass. Nylander quickly fed Tavares, who moved in alone and backhanded his 21st goal of the season upstairs against his former team.

The Leafs, who lost 3-2 in overtime to the Islanders here on Nov. 21, then took their first lead 1:40 later when Nylander used a delicate flip pass to send Jarnkrok in alone to score his 11th.

Sorokin stopped Michael Bunting’s penalty shot later in the period, but Nylander buried his second of the night and 26th overall with 3:28 left in the middle period after stealing the puck from Scott Mayfield in the offensive zone.

Matthews sealed the win with his 25th at 7:44 of the third on a breakaway off a pass from Holl.

New York opened the scoring with 22.2 seconds left in the first when Lee swatted home a loose puck in the crease for his 16th after Brock Nelson’s shot glanced off Samsonov’s shoulder and hit the post.

The Toronto goaltender was sharp on a number of chances earlier in the period, including a terrific blocker stop at full stretch on Casey Cizikas.

Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe tweaked his top-6 forward group during the first intermission, reuniting Tavares and Nylander, and slotting Mitch Marner alongside Matthews.

Toronto tied it at 5:07 of the second when Nylander scored off the rush after a nice play from Tavares.

Lee put New York back ahead 1:10 later on a one-timer that fooled Samsonov for his 17th.

SAMSONOV ON A RUN

Samsonov made his third straight start and fourth straight appearance. Samsonov came in 14-4-2 record and a .919 save percentage, while Matt Murray was 11-5-0 with a .911 save percentage as part of Toronto’s goaltending tandem.

BRODIE NEARING RETURN

Maple Leafs D T.J. Brodie took part in his first on-ice session with teammates since suffering a rib injury earlier this month. Keefe said the defenseman won’t be available until at least Friday when Toronto hosts Ottawa. Brodie has been limited to just 28 games in 2022-23 after also suffering an oblique injury in the fall.

DEBUTS AND RETURNS

New York D Samuel Bolduc made his NHL debut. The 22-year-old from Quebec had eight goals and 26 points in 40 AHL games this season. ... Also, Islanders F Kyle Palmieri and D Adam Pelech returned to the lineup after long injury absences.

UP NEXT

Islanders: At Ottawa on Wednesday night to wrap up a two-game trip.

Maple Leafs: Host the New York Rangers on Wednesday night in the second of a five-game trip.

___

AP NHL: www.apnews.com/hub/NHL and www.twitter.com/AP_Sports

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Rasmus Dahlin is well aware that only five of the 44 skaters selected for the upcoming All-Star Game in Florida are defensemen.

"I guess the fans want to see forwards," the Buffalo Sabres blue-liner told Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News on Monday. "It is what it is. I'm going on vacation and I'm going to have a good time, but, obviously, I want to be there. That's just how it goes."

Dahlin ranks second in scoring among NHL defensemen with 52 points, but he was not named to the Atlantic Division's All-Star roster. Tage Thompson was Buffalo's representative on the initial roster, while Toronto Maple Leafs star Auston Matthews and Boston Bruins sniper David Pastrnak earned spots through the NHL All-Star Fan Vote.

All nine skaters on the Atlantic Division's roster are forwards.

Though he'd prefer to participate in the All-Star festivities, Dahlin plans to enjoy a break from his 26:10 of average ice time.

"The rest is well-needed for sure," the 22-year-old said. "A few of us are going to have a good time - mental break and also a physical break. So I'm excited for that, too. Some days, you've got to take your day off if you have to, but I think the body gets used to it."

Dahlin earned the first All-Star nod of his young career last season. He's looking forward to watching Thompson - who's tied for third in the league with 32 goals - put on a show as the Sabres' representative this time around.

"People want to see his skill and what he's good at," Dahlin said. "So I'm super excited for him. I'm going to watch. I want him to do something sick out there and have a blast. I'm sure he's going to do it a few times more in his career, but enjoy this moment, for sure."

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Johnny Gaudreau says he understands if Calgary Flames fans are upset about his departure ahead of his first game back in the city with the Columbus Blue Jackets on Monday night.

"Sports is awesome," Gaudreau told NHL.com's Craig Merz on Friday. "It brings people together, and I got to play there for 10 years, nine years, and I had some great memories, and they're probably a little upset that I'm not there anymore. I get it."

Even though the skilled winger isn't expecting a warm welcome, he's looking forward to suiting up at the Saddledome again.

"They love their team, and that's why I loved playing there so much, and I loved being part of that organization for 12, 13 years," he said. "It's going to be fun going back."

Gaudreau's current teammates had some fun with him at Monday's morning skate, perhaps preparing him for what's to come in the evening.

Gaudreau stunned the hockey world when he signed with the Blue Jackets as an unrestricted free agent in July. His departure wasn't necessarily shocking, as many expected him to land with either his hometown Philadelphia Flyers, the New Jersey Devils, or the New York Islanders. But Flames fans can be forgiven if they still feel a little bitter about Gaudreau's exit.

The American played eight seasons with the Flames after debuting with the club for a single contest in 2013-14. Gaudreau ranks fifth in assists and points, as well as ninth in goals in franchise history. Last season, the 29-year-old set career highs in goals (40), assists (75), and points to finish fourth in Hart Trophy voting for the second time.

Gaudreau said in December his intent during free agency wasn't to string the Flames along. A few weeks earlier, he mentioned he didn't regret his decision to join the Jackets, noting he wouldn't change it "for the world."

The Blue Jackets have disappointed this season, entering Monday sitting last in the NHL at 14-30-2. Gaudreau isn't producing at last season's elite clip, but he's posting nearly a point per game with 44 in 46 contests. The dynamic forward has scored 12 of his 13 goals in 2022-23 at even strength.

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