Detroit Red Wings forward Robby Fabbri is expected to miss the remainder of the season with a suspected torn ACL, head coach Jeff Blashill announced Friday.
Fabbri is set to undergo further evaluation. He exited during the second period of the Red Wings' 6-5 shootout loss to the Minnesota Wild on Thursday with a lower-body injury.
The Red Wings placed him on injured reserve and recalled winger Taro Hirose from the AHL in a corresponding move.
Fabbri registered 17 goals and 13 assists in 56 games this campaign while averaging over 17 minutes a contest.
The 26-year-old has dealt with a slew of severe left knee ailments and has undergone multiple surgeries throughout his career. The latest injury is on his right knee, according to The Athletic's Max Bultman.
Fabbri suffered a torn ACL in his left knee in February 2017 as a member of the St. Louis Blues and missed the remainder of that campaign. He reinjured his knee the following training camp and was forced to sit out the entire 2017-18 season.
A first-round pick of the Blues in 2014, Fabbri has 73 goals and 79 assists in 302 career contests.
Beyond the frustrations of a speeding, oddly shaped rubber bullet bouncing off of a series of surfaces at a variety of angles and haphazardly finding its way into a 4-by-6 cage, hockey betting is a night-to-night roller coaster.
According to our value-based betting guide, four teams showed value as underdogs Monday. They all lost; 0-4, -4 units.
Tuesday's massive slate showed six teams worth betting on. Five of them won; 5-1, +6.45 units.
It would be easier on our blood pressure if +2.45 units over two days was a little more evenly distributed, but such is life when betting a moneyline-centric sport.
The Blackhawks (-130) were one of those winners Tuesday. The Oilers (-125) followed suit Wednesday as a rare favorite worth betting from a value standpoint.
Why is it so rare to see sportsbooks provide value on a favorite? Well, because they usually don't have to. Bettors are fine with lining up on Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals even in the second night of a back-to-back in Edmonton. They're content with getting plus-money on the plucky Ducks against the woeful Blackhawks.
As we turn our attention to the weekend, our search for value isn't defined by whether there's a plus or minus sign in front of a teams' odds. It's about how that implied probability compares to our valuations of each team.
The recipe
Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.
We made a small adjustment to our formula this week, moving this season's on-ice predictive metrics to 75% of our total rating. While our ratings are weighted to this season, basing 25% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to place more emphasis on team metrics without going all-in on what's happened this year. That's important because this season is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.
The cheat sheet
What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.
DATE
GAME
TRUE ML
PRICE TO BET
March 11
MIN@CBJ
-133/+133
MIN -128/CBJ +157
VGK@PIT
+136/-136
VGK +160/PIT -130
WPG@NYI
+122/-122
WPG +143/NYI -117
WSH@VAN
+115/-115
WSH +136/VAN -111
March 12
STL@NSH
+103/-103
STL +114/NSH +107
PHI@CAR
+149/-143
PHI +177/CAR -143
ARI@BOS
+209/-209
ARI +253/ BOS -200
CHI@OTT
-110/+110
CHI +101/OTT +121
SEA@MTL
-117/+117
SEA -112/MTL +138
ANA@NJD
+157/-157
ANA +187/NJD -151
DET@CGY
+168/-168
DET +201/CGY -161
NYR@DAL
+111/-111
NYR +131/DAL -107
LAK@SJS
-110/+110
LAK +100/SJS +122
TBL@EDM
+115/-115
TBL +135/EDM -111
March 13
CAR@PIT
+146/-146
CAR +173/PIT -141
TOR@BUF
-147/+147
TOR -141/BUF +174
VGK@CBJ
-128/+128
VGK -123/CBJ +151
NSH@MIN
+148/-148
NSH +175/MIN -142
WPG@STL
+106/-106
WPG +117/STL +105
MTL@PHI
+140/-140
MTL +166/PHI -135
ANA@NYI
+194/-194
ANA +233/NYI -186
CGY@COL
+148/-148
CGY +176/COL -142
TBL@VAN
+121/-121
TBL +143/VAN -116
FLA@LAK
-140/+140
FLA -134/LAK +165
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
Thursday was a successful night for shot props. Jack Eichel threw up a dud against his former team but, luckily, Anze Kopitar and Mark Giordano capitalized on their advantageous matchups and led us to a profitable evening.
We'll look for more of the same as we find the best way to approach Friday's four-game slate.
Brock Nelson over 2.5 shots (-112)
Nelson is sizzling-hot right now. The Islanders center has taken at least three shots on goal in eight of the last 10 games, generating four or more at a 50% clip.
He's in a very good spot to continue his success Friday night. The Jets have been below average at suppressing shots and shot attempts over the last 10 contests, and they've struggled against the center position all season long.
They're conceding 10.81 shots per game to centers, which is a higher rate than all but four teams.
I doubt they're going to tighten the screws in the second half of a road back-to-back, particularly against someone generating as much volume as Nelson is.
Alex Pietrangelo over 2.5 shots (-155)
Pietrangelo is another guy who has been gripping it and ripping it lately. He has averaged 3.2 shots per game over the last 10, with only Jack Eichel outpacing him during that span.
The Penguins are an above-average shot-suppression team but have struggled to limit defensemen recently.
Jaccob Slavin (twice), Dougie Hamilton, Jacob Trouba, and Aaron Ekblad, among others, have registered at least three shots in recent meetings against Pittsburgh. Clearly, trigger-happy minute-munchers have enjoyed plenty of success against the Penguins. Expect no different with the Golden Knights rearguard.
Patrik Laine over 2.5 shots (-167)
Even while losing games, the Wild have remained very stingy in terms of suppressing shots at five-on-five. So why back Laine here? Special teams.
The Wild have conceded shots at an alarming rate while killing penalties. They've given up 119 attempts, and 73 shots on goal, per 60 minutes of PK time over the last 10.
Laine is option No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 on the Blue Jackets' power play, so he's as likely as anybody to take advantage of this juicy matchup.
He should be able to generate a couple shots on the man advantage, which puts him in prime position to go over the number (2.5) for the ninth time in the last 11 games.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
It wasn't our night on the ice. Igor Shesterkin and Ville Husso both rank inside the top three in Goals Saved Above Expectation per start. Naturally, their meeting Thursday turned into an offensive explosion.
Additionally, the Boston Bruins couldn't win by a pair at home, and the Colorado Avalanche were blanked by Antti Raanta. Despite beating the closing line with all three bets, we were left empty-handed. It happens.
We'll look to bounce back with our best bets for the weekend ahead.
While the New York Islanders are coming off back-to-back high-scoring games, this contest screams under to me.
New York's offense isn't good. I think its recent outburst has more to do with playing the Colorado Avalanche - who are prone to pulling teams into track meets - and Joonas Korpisalo, one of the league's worst netminders this season.
The Islanders' underlying metrics are middling in terms of generating chances and expected goals. Plus, it's not like they're overflowing with high-end talent to consistently capitalize on the chances they do get, especially if Mathew Barzal remains out due to injury.
This team has had defensive hiccups along the way, but New York generally remains stout on home soil. Over the last 10 home games, the Islanders conceded just 53 attempts and fewer than two goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. Those are strong numbers.
Now, they draw a Winnipeg Jets team in the second half of a back-to-back with a fresh Connor Hellebuyck. He's struggled as of late, but his long track record of success leaves reason to believe he'll rebound sooner than later.
I think this line should be at 5.5 and juiced a little to the under. I'm happy to take my chances with the safety net 6 provides.
The Minnesota Wild have hit a rough patch, winning just four of their last 10 games. That's hardly what you'd expect from a team with their level of talent.
But their play has been better than it appears. They rank fifth in the league with an expected goal share of nearly 54% over the last 10 contests.
Put simply, goaltending has been their downfall. Cam Talbot, in particular, has struggled to find his game.
It just so happens Friday will be an off night for Talbot, as Kaapo Kahkonen will get the nod in goal. He hasn't played great, either, but he's about eight goals clear of Talbot in Goals Saved Above Expected this season. He gives the Wild a better chance to win right now.
Minnesota is also drawing one of the better matchups it could hope for. The Columbus Blue Jackets have controlled a putrid 38% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five over the last 10 games.
Only the Chicago Blackhawks have generated high-danger looks at a lesser rate, while just three teams have conceded them more frequently.
The Wild should be able to dominate the run of play in this game, putting them in position to win their third in a row.
San Jose has been getting decimated at five-on-five as of late. Its share of the expected goals at five-on-five is just 39% over the last 10 games, which is mind-numbingly bad. Erik Karlsson's return should help prop that number up a little bit, but there's only so much one player can do.
Even without Viktor Arvidsson, I expect the Kings to dominate territorially at five-on-five. They did so Thursday, controlling 62.5% of the high-danger chances.
That was also without No. 1 defenseman Drew Doughty in the lineup. If he's able to return Saturday, that's an added bonus for the Kings.
This team has proven doubters wrong all season long and found ways to get wins in spots you wouldn't expect. I believe Los Angeles will respond and put this struggling Sharks team back in its place.
Bet: Kings (-121)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
From a playoff race perspective, the Eastern Conference is boring.
The top eight teams are practically locked into playoff spots and should be buyers in the lead-up to the March 21 trade deadline, while the bottom eight clubs should be selling off expiring assets.
The Western Conference is much more fascinating. There's a cluster of teams at the top (Colorado, Calgary, St. Louis, Minnesota) that are obvious buyers destined for the postseason, while other clubs near the bottom (Arizona, Seattle, Chicago, San Jose) are clearly in a rebuild or retool phase.
The remaining eight teams, however, are all jockeying for five playoff spots. Below, we dive into whether these fringe playoff teams should buy, sell, or sit ahead of the deadline.
Anaheim Ducks
Bruce Kluckhohn / National Hockey League / Getty
Standings: 6th in Pacific (Out of playoffs by 4 points) Playoff chances: 3.6%
The Ducks got off to a red-hot start this season, but it always felt too good to be true. John Gibson was playing out of his mind, covering up the team's suspect underlying metrics. Even with impressive play from youngsters Troy Terry, Trevor Zegras, and Jamie Drysdale, Anaheim felt like pretenders.
That has proven to be the case. The Ducks are under .500 since Jan. 1, looking more and more like a team that's at least a year or two away from serious contention. This isn't their time to go for it.
New general manager Pat Verbeek is in a prime position to put his fingerprints on the team and help move along the rebuild. Pending unrestricted free agents Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson, and Rickard Rakell will all be highly coveted at the deadline. Verbeek knows he can't let any of them walk and should trade all three. If he wants to keep one of them, Lindholm would make the most sense, though the defenseman's extension won't be cheap.
With the assets Verbeek receives for his main trade chips, the Ducks will be set up nicely this offseason. They'll have a stocked farm system and draft pick cupboard, an impressive young core, and ample cap space to make additions.
Verdict:Sell
Dallas Stars
Glenn James / National Hockey League / Getty
Standings: 5th in Central (In playoffs by 1 point) Playoff chances: 54.4%
Making the postseason is a priority for the Stars. And after going 7-2-1 in their last 10 games - largely thanks to a goal-scoring spree from sophomore Jason Robertson - the club is narrowly on the right side of the playoff cutline.
This dynamic, mixed with the news Thursday of No. 1 defenseman Miro Heiskanen being sidelined indefinitely with mononucleosis, puts Dallas management in a precarious position ahead of the deadline.
Blue-liner John Klingberg, who requested a trade earlier this season, is a pending UFA having a substandard year. Forward Joe Pavelski has an expiring contract, too, though the club wants to re-sign the ageless wonder, so he's not going anywhere. Goalie Braden Holtby and forward Alexander Radulov - the Stars' other potential rentals - could conceivably be shipped out of town.
Stars GM Jim Nill could say screw it and hold onto all four players because he thinks they can help his team win playoff games. Or he could flip Klingberg, Holtby, and Radulov for picks and/or prospects while holding onto Pavelski.
Or Nill could settle for something in between Option A and Option B by pursuing a few so-called hockey trades, where the seller is also a buyer because they're acquiring NHLers in exchange for their own. This would help the Stars finish 2021-22 strong and refresh the roster for future seasons.
Option C appears to be the most likely - and best - approach for Dallas.
Verdict: Sell ... and buy?
Edmonton Oilers
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty
Standings: 4th in Pacific (Out of playoffs by 1 point) Playoff chances: 64.5%
Missing the playoffs in the prime of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl's careers would be catastrophic for the Oilers. Such a result might even cost GM Ken Holland his job, and he probably knows it. Holland needs to address some of the holes on his roster - and fast.
The biggest need is between the pipes. As expected, the duo of Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith has been shaky all season. Holland should be inquiring about Marc-Andre Fleury, Semyon Varlamov, Holtby, and just about every other goalie that would represent an upgrade.
The Oilers could stand to add a steady veteran on the left side of their blue line, too. Lindholm or Mark Giordano would make sense, but they won't come cheap. Calvin de Haan or Brett Kulak could be among the savvier value additions.
Verdict: Buy
Los Angeles Kings
NHL Images / National Hockey League / Getty
Standings: 2nd in Pacific (In playoffs by 6 points) Playoff chances: 96.2%
Let's face it, L.A. is playing with house money right now.
It would take a significant fall from grace for the Kings to miss the playoffs - even though parts of the roster around veterans Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty are still under construction. They're slightly ahead of schedule. Meanwhile, since the Kings draft and develop so well, GM Rob Blake has plenty of tradable assets.
Put another way, there's no reason why L.A. should do anything drastic over the next week. Yet, if there's a deal on the table that can help expedite the Kings' timeline back to contention, why not pull the trigger? Plucking Jakob Chychrun out of Arizona would certainly qualify as one such power move.
The GM that ultimately acquires Chychrun - the versatile defenseman who's under contract through 2024-25 at a palatable $4.6-million AAV - will need to send the Coyotes a hefty package of picks and prospects. Blake can do that.
Verdict: Buy
Nashville Predators
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty
Standings: 4th in Central (In playoffs by 4 points) Playoff chances: 65.7%
The Predators are in an odd spot. They traded away veteran stalwarts Ryan Ellis and Viktor Arvidsson for futures this past offseason as part of what appears to be a retool on the fly. Yet they remain on track for their eighth straight postseason berth.
The biggest question revolves around pending UFA Filip Forsberg. General manager David Poile said he isn't trying to trade the 27-year-old sniper, but it would also be uncharacteristic of the executive to let a player of Forsberg's caliber walk for free. An extension seems most likely there.
The Preds could be surprise buyers, mainly because they have a veteran core and more than $10 million in cap space. Although anything is possible, that doesn't seem like Poile's approach right now - especially since his club isn't locked into a playoff spot.
Verdict: Extend Forsberg andsit
Vancouver Canucks
Jeff Vinnick / National Hockey League / Getty
Standings: 5th in Pacific (Out of playoffs by 3 points) Playoff chances: 32.3%
Former GM Jim Benning's downfall was his willingness to make the playoffs at the expense of building a sustainable winner. The Canucks' new group of decision-makers, headed by Jim Rutherford, won't go down the same path.
Vancouver is far more likely to miss the postseason and seems primed to sell ahead of the deadline. That said, rival teams will have a huge influence on exactly how deep the Canucks cut into their NHL roster.
Sure, pending UFAs like Tyler Motte, Alex Chiasson, and Jaroslav Halak are probably on their way out. But the real juice is a trio of high-end forwards under team control: Brock Boeser, a pending restricted free agent; Conor Garland, who's locked up at a reasonable cap hit through 2025-26; and J.T. Miller, whose team-friendly deal expires after next season.
If there are enticing offers on the table for Garland, Boeser, and/or Miller, perhaps the Canucks become major sellers, making a splash or two. If not, it doesn't hurt to wait until the offseason to reassess the market for all three.
Verdict: Sell
Vegas Golden Knights
NHL Images / National Hockey League / Getty
Standings: 3rd in Pacific (In playoffs by 2 points) Playoff chances: 80.4%
Vegas' deadline plans hinge on the health of captain Mark Stone and defenseman Alec Martinez. Both players are currently on LTIR, and if they stay there throughout the remainder of the regular season, the Golden Knights will have roughly $7 million in cap space for the deadline. That alone could make them major players.
If Stone and Martinez are activated before the end of the season, though, the Golden Knights will need to shed salary. That could force them to trade either Evgenii Dadonov or pending UFA Reilly Smith.
So, theoretically, the Golden Knights could be buyers or sellers. Standing pat appears to be the most plausible scenario, though.
Yes, it seems unlikely either Stone or Martinez are activated before the end of the season, but Vegas doesn't have a ton of trade ammo. The Knights have already traded away their 2022 first-round pick, and their prospect pool lacks depth. They could add a low-end defenseman for a mid-to-late-round pick, but don't expect a major splash - despite management's aggressive track record.
Verdict: Sit
Winnipeg Jets
Norm Hall / National Hockey League / Getty
Standings: 6th in Central (Out of playoffs by 5 points) Playoff chances: 5.0%
It's getting close to job survival time for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff, the Jets' top hockey executive since 2011. The core he has assembled and trotted out for a handful of years simply isn't good enough to win a Stanley Cup, and missing the playoffs this year, which is probable, will only underline that fact.
Cheveldayoff's best trade chips are forwards Andrew Copp and Paul Stastny. Both veterans could definitely help a contender down the stretch and into the playoffs, but neither will command an overly impressive return package.
Some fans are hoping the GM pulls off a more significant trade - say, shipping out top center and longtime core member Mark Scheifele - but transactions involving star players with term tend to be better suited for the offseason.
Igor Shesterkin has had his teammates' backs all year, but during a rare off night for the Vezina Trophy frontrunner, his teammates weren't there to return to favor.
The New York Rangers star netminder allowed four goals on 17 shots during a 6-2 loss to the St. Louis Blues on Thursday before the club pulled him in favor of Alexandar Georgiev.
"They should be embarrassed a little bit, the way (Shesterkin) plays for them all year," Rangers head coach Gerard Gallant told reporters postgame. "Then they come out tonight and play like that, after a game in Minnesota that we weren't too good in."
Gallant added that his team looked "soft." He also said that Shesterkin had "no chance" on most of the goals.
Shesterkin has found himself in Hart Trophy conversations this season. He entered Thursday leading the league in goals against average (1.93), save percentage (.942), goals saved above average (40.6), and goals saved above expected (34.97).
The 26-year-old's the major reason New York is tied for second in the Metropolitan Division this campaign. The Rangers rank 26th in expected goals percentage at five-on-five - the lowest among any team currently in a postseason spot, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Landeskog also wondered if the officials treat teammate Nazem Kadri differently because of his suspension history.
"In 11 years I've never sat and talked about referees in a press conference ever. I think Wes (McCauley) and TJ Luxmore (did) a great job tonight for 50-some minutes of the game," he said. "They called a high stick on (Kadri) on (Hurricanes forward Nino) Niederreiter, which might have been a high stick but Niederreiter falls (easily). We're arguing it's a flop. They say it's still a high stick. Fair enough.
"With 5:50 left on the clock, Niederreiter is hooking Naz up the boards. The puck turns over, we go the other way, they score. We're arguing that it's a hook. They're saying Naz is flopping, we're arguing it's still a hook, just like they're arguing before. It's unfortunate because that's a playoff game tonight. It's very unfortunate that it comes down to that ... Whether a guy has been suspended numerous times or not, is he going to be carrying around that heavy baggage forever?
"I'm not saying TJ and Wes didn't call it for that reason, but Naz is a guy that's competitive. Whether he sold that call or not, you can look at the video and the stick is in his waist and that's why he loses the puck. I think it's unfortunate. Sometimes it's time for players to step up and speak their truth. I'm the one looking like an idiot for getting thrown out of the game even though I'm just being honest. I guess TJ didn't like that I said he had a tough night."
Kadri appeared to scream "He f-----g dove," after he was whistled for high-sticking.
The Hurricanes are ahead of the second-ranked Avalanche for top spot in the NHL in terms of point percentage. Colorado has two more points in total, but Carolina has two games in hand. The Avalanche have lost four of their last five games, though one was in overtime.
Jack Eichel's postgame comments won't put him in the good books of Buffalo Sabres fans anytime soon.
The Vegas Golden Knights star received a mixed response from the KeyBank Center faithful in his first game back in Western New York on Thursday. Some cheered and some booed while his tribute video aired, but the overall volume caught Eichel by surprise.
"That's about the loudest I've heard this place, ever," Eichel said postgame, according to WKBW's Matt Bove. "It only took seven years and me leaving for them to get into the game."
Jack Eichel: yeah, it's about the loudest I've heard this building ever. Really, it only took seven years and me leaving to get into the game........they must just be booing me because they wish I was still here 👀 @WKBWpic.twitter.com/2FatvHS1d7
During Eichel's first five years in Buffalo, the Sabres never ranked higher than 10th in average attendance but never lower than 20th. The club ranks 31st this season, according to ESPN.
The center offered a theory as to why some fans booed.
"There was plenty of people here that were supporting me, and there was plenty of people here that were booing me," he said. "They must just be booing me because they wish I was still here, I don't know."
Eichel and Buffalo had a falling out after the team refused to allow him to have his preferred artificial disc replacement surgery to replace a herniated disc in his neck suffered last campaign. The 25-year-old said on Thursday that it felt like the Sabres were "toying" with him.
In November, Buffalo eventually traded him to the Golden Knights, who allowed him to undergo his preferred surgery.
The Sabres selected Eichel second overall in 2015, and he recorded 355 points in 375 games with the franchise.
Buffalo spoiled Eichel's homecoming, however, winning 3-1 with goals from Alex Tuch and Peyton Krebs - the two players received from Vegas in the trade.