The Toronto Maple Leafs lost by three goals to one of the worst teams in hockey on Monday. And, you know what? I'm going right back to them against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
You don't need me to tell you Toronto is one of the best offensive teams in the NHL. They have a ton of firepower and, statistically speaking, they're one of the league's best at generating chances. If skill players get opportunities in bulk, they're going to score.
I expect the Maple Leafs to get a ton of them against the Blue Jackets. Over the last 10 games, Columbus ranks 28th in high-danger chances against and 31st in expected goals against per 60 minutes of five-on-five play.
Giving up that kind of volume is a risky proposition no matter who is between the pipes. It just so happens J.F. Berube is expected to get the nod in this one.
The 36-year-old journeyman netminder has consistently posted sub .900 save percentages in the AHL over the last few years. Expecting him to slow the Maple Leafs - who should be chomping at the bit to redeem themselves after Monday's disastrous showing - is unrealistic, to say the least.
I like the Maple Leafs to score early and often in this one.
The wheels are coming off the San Jose Sharks. They've won just once over the last eight games and their underlying metrics in that span have been downright miserable - especially defensively.
At five-on-five, they've conceded more than 69 shot attempts per 60 minutes. They have also given up 3.48 expected goals against and 16.13 high-danger chances against per 60 minutes. They rank dead last in the NHL - well behind even the Arizona Coyotes - in each of those categories.
For perspective, the Anaheim Ducks have allowed 55.21 attempts, 2.67 expected goals, and 11.20 high-danger chances per 60 over the same span. They haven't exactly been stout and yet their defensive metrics are several tiers above San Jose's.
I expect the Ducks will be able to control the run of play in this game. They should generate more quality opportunities and, based on the projected goaltending matchup (James Reimer vs. John Gibson), I feel better about the Ducks getting the saves they need.
Back Anaheim to take care of business against the slumping Sharks.
Bet: Ducks (-150)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
Montreal Canadiens interim head coach Martin St. Louis has noticed his club exuding an important trait lately.
"Confidence. I think to be successful as a team in this league, and as an individual, I think you need some swagger, and I think we're building a lot of swagger right now," St. Louis told Sportsnet's Eric Engels after a 5-2 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday night.
"Swagger is not cockiness or arrogance; it's just believing in yourself and feeling good about yourself," the bench boss clarified. "And I think we have that."
The Canadiens jumped out to a 5-0 lead against the Maple Leafs before cruising to their third consecutive victory and their second in as many days. Montreal is 3-3-0 since firing Dominique Ducharme and replacing him with St. Louis on Feb. 9.
The Habs, who remain the NHL's worst team by both points and point percentage, have begun to turn things around since the coaching change.
Cole Caufield, Jeff Petry, and Josh Anderson have all come alive offensively. Caufield, the preseason Calder Trophy favorite who struggled mightily for most of the campaign, has scored five goals in the six games under his new head coach.
Petry, the typically steady defenseman who's in the midst of a disappointing campaign, has produced two goals and three assists in the last four contests. Anderson, who the Canadiens signed to a hefty contract after acquiring him in a trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets for Max Domi, has collected three goals and an assist in the last two games, including two markers and a helper Monday.
Montreal has the 30th-ranked expected goals for percentage at five-on-five in the NHL this season, but it's been the 23rd-best team in that regard since St. Louis took over, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Habs sit 29th in scoring chances for percentage, but they're 22nd during the new coach's tenure.
We saw the rarest of occasions Sunday, and it didn't cause the hockey world to go blind. You've heard of the dangers of looking directly at a solar eclipse, but thankfully, you didn't need a reflective apparatus to witness the "loser eclipse" - the Coyotes (13-37 on the moneyline) and the Canadiens (10-40) both won a hockey game on the same day.
On Friday, we discussed the concept of a No Bet List and how Arizona and Montreal showed red flags before the season started. These should keep us away from them - no matter how much value their preseason priors suggest they had with inflated moneyline prices throughout the campaign.
But when do we consider removing teams from a No Bet List?
Bets on Arizona and Montreal will likely continue to show value this season solely because of the astronomical moneyline payouts that sportsbooks assign. The Canadiens have won two straight but required overtime and the shootout. With 10 straight losses prior to that, we're not ready to remove them from the list just yet.
The Coyotes are 3-4 in February and boast moneyline wins of +430 (at Colorado), +190 (at Seattle), and +225 (vs. Dallas). Even blind-betting the team every game this month would earn back roughly +4.5 units. Better yet, according to our guide, only three of its defeats were deemed valuable bets at the time, which would save that bettor a loss along the way.
While Montreal always shows as a bet - even though we've known since the start of the season that it's not - Arizona's had games that fell within our fair price range. When that happens, we have a stable enough rating on a team to trust a moneyline bet that shows as valuable.
Before we bring the Coyotes back into the fold, however, we need to remember that it's less about whether you should make the bet and more about knowing what you're getting into when you do.
The recipe
Before the campaign, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.
Two months ago, I posted my 2021-22 season ratings that use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Since we've gotten through the All-Star break and COVID-19-related roster inconsistencies are fewer and further between, we'll increase the ratio between current season metrics and priors to a 70-30 split.
With our ratings weighted to this season's on-ice product, we can put more emphasis on team metrics without going all-in on what's happened in a still relatively small sample size.
The cheat sheet
The following includes my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected will be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.
DATE
GAME
TRUE ML
PRICE TO BET
Feb. 21
COL@BOS
-128/+128
COL -123/BOS +151
CAR@PHI
+116/-115
CAR +136/PHI -111
WPG@CGY
+133/-133
WPG +157/CGY -128
TOR@MTL
-204/+204
TOR -195/MTL +246
SEA@VAN
+134/-134
SEA +158/VAN -129
Feb. 22
STL@PHI
+109/+129
STL -105/PHI +129
TOR@CBJ
+109/+129
TOR -105/CBJ +129
MIN@OTT
-142/+142
MIN -137/OTT +168
NSH@FLA
+171/-171
NSH +204/FLA -164
SJS@ANA
+104/-104
SJS +123/ANA +100
NYI@SEA
+131/-131
NYI -126/SEA +155
Feb. 23
WPG@DAL
+150/-150
WPG +178/DAL -144
EDM@TB
+112/-112
EDM +131/TB -107
BUF@MTL
+123/-123
BUF +144/MTL -118
COL@DET
-146/+146
COL -140/DET +172
LAK@ARI
-129/+129
LAK -124/ARI +152
Feb. 24
CBJ@FLA
+203/-203
CBJ +245/FLA -194
MIN@TOR
+108/-108
MIN +126/TOR -103
WSH@NYR
+102/-102
WSH +113/NYR +108
NJD@PIT
+134/-134
NJD +158/PIT -129
DAL@NSH
+103/-103
DAL +114/NSH +107
CGY@VAN
+100/+100
CGY +110/VAN +110
BOS@SEA
-120/+120
BOS -115/SEA +141
NYI@SJS
-104/+104
NYI +106/SJS +115
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
Monday marks exactly one month until the NHL trade deadline.
Based on the current standings divide - clear haves and have-nots - and the latest buzz from the rumor mill, the leadup to March 21 should be thrilling.
The first domino to fall was forward Tyler Toffoli being sent from Montreal to Calgary last week. The Flames got ahead of the curve. Who's next? And where could some notable names ultimately end up?
Here are the best fits for trade season's most high-profile players:
Claude Giroux
Len Redkoles / Getty Images
Giroux, the 34-year-old captain and leading scorer for the Philadelphia Flyers, is the crown jewel of trade season. However, due to a couple of factors, the list of teams seriously in the running for Giroux shouldn't be long.
First of all, Giroux has a full no-move clause in his contract, meaning he and his agent - not the Flyers - are setting the tone for trade negotiations. Secondly, since the pending unrestricted free agent makes $8.275 million against the cap, salary retention by the Flyers and/or a third team appears necessary, as every contender is at or close to the $81.5-million upper limit.
Giroux's no longer in his prime but still quite productive with 38 points in 46 games. He's a two-way forward who can line up at center or wing and provide some value on special teams. His leadership qualities are a cherry on top.
The Colorado Avalanche and Florida Panthers are reportedly among the interested teams. And while the high-octane Avs certainly aren't desperate for firepower up front - Giroux or otherwise - there's absolutely no better landing spot than Colorado for a veteran chasing his first Stanley Cup.
General manager Joe Sakic is unsurprisingly all-in on the 36-9-4 Avs, and he has enough good but expendable NHLers, prospects, and draft picks at his disposal to pull off a trade of this magnitude. In other words, if Sakic can find a way to make the money work, acquiring Giroux shouldn't be terribly difficult.
Michael Martin / Getty Images
Plan B for clubs on the hunt for a high-impact rental forward? San Jose Sharks center Tomas Hertl - though his situation is complicated as well.
Hertl, who's recorded 40 points in 49 games, has a modified no-trade clause centered around a three-team "trade list," according to CapFriendly. That could shrink the market significantly. Also, there's a non-zero chance he re-signs with the Sharks before the deadline. That said, Hertl's name is in the rumor mill, and the Minnesota Wild and Boston Bruins are two obvious fits.
Phil Kessel's stock may have dropped over the past few months, but he remains another name to watch. The rebuilding Arizona Coyotes are highly motivated to flip their pending UFAs, and Kessel has a track record of playoff success. His destination will likely depend on the fates of Giroux and Hertl.
The wild card is Joe Pavelski. If his Dallas Stars opt to sell - which, given the team's rollercoaster season, is probably a 50/50 bet - there'll be no shortage of interest in Pavelski. The point-per-game contributor is well-respected, wildly competitive, and clutch in the playoffs.
J.T. Miller
Jeff Vinnick / Getty Images
The high amount of turnover in NHL front offices (six new GMs or interim GMs over the past calendar year) seems to have led to a more robust market than usual for notable forwards under team control beyond the current season.
For instance, the Vancouver Canucks' revamped front office is still getting its sea legs, yet changes to the roster are undoubtedly coming. The question is, when does the wheeling and dealing start? As soon as possible? Before or at the draft?
Miller, whose cap hit is a palatable $5.25 million this year and next, has been tied to the New York Rangers, his former club, for a while. The speedy and versatile forward would also look fantastic on a pace-pushing contender, like the Avs, Panthers, or Carolina Hurricanes. Or perhaps Miller stays put, and management instead ships out Brock Boeser (pending restricted free agent in the rumor mill) and/or Conor Garland (current deal runs through 2025-26).
Montreal's Artturi Lehkonen, Arizona's Lawson Crouse, and Detroit's Filip Zadina are three other RFA forwards believed to be on the trade block.
Lehkonen and his $2.3-million AAV counts as the most desirable for contending clubs. A defensively minded winger on pace for career highs in goals and points, Lehkonen could provide a tidy upgrade in the bottom-six.
John Klingberg
Glenn James / Getty Images
Klingberg, a pending UFA, is the biggest name on the defensemen market.
The puck-moving Swede asked for a trade out of Dallas earlier this season, and his agent has been in contact with interested teams. Ultimately, though, the Stars hold all of the power, and, similar to the Pavelski situation, there's no guarantee Klingberg gets moved because Dallas is pushing for a playoff spot.
Klingberg hasn't done himself or the Stars any favors this season, playing poorly under the spotlight. Nevertheless, he's a skillful top-four D-man attached to a decent AAV of $4.25 million. The Hurricanes are a logical fit. Carolina doesn't have the cap space right now, so it'll require Dallas or a third team to eat 50% of Klingberg's salary before trade talks can really intensify.
Backups for those who strike out on Klingberg include Seattle's Mark Giordano, Montreal's Ben Chiarot, and Philadelphia's Justin Braun. Over the weekend, the Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Ilya Lyubushkin for blue-line depth, but they've also, at some point or another, been linked to all three names listed above. Braun, a cheap and trusty righty, would be a smart pickup for Leafs GM Kyle Dubas, who should continue improving his squad.
Jakob Chychrun
Ronald Martinez / Getty Images
The huge gap between the NHL's very best and very worst teams seems to have opened the door for a few deadline deals involving non-rental D-men.
Despite being only 23 years old, Chychrun is in his sixth NHL season and has all of the tools to be a team's No. 1 guy on the back end. He showed as much last year, leading all defensemen in goals with 18 in 56 games while keeping the talent-deprived Coyotes afloat in other areas of the ice. He's a bonafide stud.
Chychrun has taken a step back this season - much like every Coyote, to be fair - but the combination of his ceiling and friendly contract ($4.6-million AAV for three years after 2021-22) should attract offers from 90% of the league. Not unlike the situation with Miller and the Canucks, however, there's no rush to trade Chychrun. The Coyotes could even wait until the offseason.
Montreal's Jeff Petry ($6.25 million through 2024-25) and the New York Islanders' Scott Mayfield ($1.45 million through 2022-23) are other notables with term on their deals. Petry's season has been disastrous, and his AAV would be a tough pill to swallow for a contender. So teams shopping for a D-man (Carolina, Toronto, Boston, Florida, St. Louis) will likely target the sturdy Mayfield.
Marc-Andre Fleury
Chase Agnello-Dean / Getty Images
It's rare for a starting goalie to be moved at the deadline, but the circumstances might be just right for a swap involving the 37-year-old Fleury.
The reigning Vezina Trophy winner is motivated to chase a third Cup in what could be his final NHL season. And if the Chicago Blackhawks and/or a basement dweller like Seattle, Arizona, or Buffalo can retain a portion of Fleury's expiring contract ($7-million AAV), there's a deal to be made.
The Vegas Golden Knights, Edmonton Oilers, and Washington Capitals - all of whom are currently in a playoff spot - need help in goal. In Vegas, a recent injury to Robin Lehner led to speculation of a potential Fleury-Vegas reunion, though GM Kelly McCrimmon shot down the rumor. That's not to say Fleury won't end up back in Golden Knights threads; if Lehner is out long term, and Fleury can mend his relationship with management, why not?
Meanwhile, Edmonton could theoretically keep their current goaltending tandem intact, but it simply can't afford to throw away another year with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Fleury would give the Oilers a better chance at a deep playoff run than Mike Smith. They need his stability.
Detroit's Thomas Greiss, Dallas' Braden Holtby, Columbus' Joonas Korpisalo, and Vancouver's Jaroslav Halak round out the group of intriguing UFA goalies.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).
The goaltender got the nod because the Blue Jackets suddenly have three injured netminders. Elvis Merzlikins got hurt in Saturday's practice, while Joonas Korpisalo and Daniil Tarasov were already dealing with ailments of their own.
Berube last suited up in the NHL as a member of the Chicago Blackhawks on April 6, 2018. He played 34 contests with the Blackhawks and New York Islanders over three seasons beginning in 2015-16.
The 30-year-old has played with four AHL clubs since his previous NHL appearance. He's 4-9-4 with an .891 save percentage across 27 games with the Cleveland Monsters - Columbus' affiliate - in 2021-22. Berube is in his second stint with the Monsters after playing 43 contests with them in 2018-19.
Berube isn't the only goalie returning to the NHL on Sunday after a lengthy absence. Andrew Hammond is also making his first start in the league since 2018 for the Montreal Canadiens against the Islanders.