Fantasy: 5 bounce-back candidates for this NHL season

A handful of NHL players who underwhelmed in 2021 are now well-positioned to return to form.

Some could benefit from a change of scenery, while others should thrive after healing from injuries or simply have better puck luck this time around. One player on this list could conceivably do all three.

Here are four forwards and a goaltender who should improve in the upcoming campaign.

Viktor Arvidsson

Juan Ocampo / National Hockey League / Getty

The Los Angeles Kings pulled off one of the sneakiest moves of the offseason in July when they acquired Arvidsson from the Nashville Predators for a pair of draft picks. The once-productive 28-year-old struggled over the last two campaigns, but there are several reasons why he should rediscover his game with his new club.

Firstly, his shooting percentage of 6.6 in 2021 suggests misfortune was a factor. It was his lowest conversion rate since his rookie season and well below his 12.1% average through the previous five-plus campaigns. Arvidsson also posted an encouraging 53.17 expected goals for percentage. Secondly, he'll likely be skating on the Kings' top line alongside Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown, who drove possession last season despite playing for a team that didn't do so as a whole.

Lastly, St. Louis Blues defenseman Robert Bortuzzo blew out both of Arvidsson's MCLs during a game early in 2019-20. The Swede returned but may not have fully healed in either of the last two campaigns. Arvidsson's now another year removed from that, and considering his new situation, he should be primed to notch around 25 goals and 30 assists with Los Angeles in 2021.

Travis Konecny

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Konecny disappointed last season, but many points explain why he'll likely get back on track in the upcoming campaign. For one thing, the Philadelphia Flyers' leading scorer in 2019-20 should have a better squad around him after the club upgraded its defense over the summer. Ryan Ellis is as dependable as they come, and even the flawed Rasmus Ristolainen is an improvement over who he's replacing.

Bad luck is also partly responsible for the skilled forward's dip in production in 2021. Konecny's 48.15 goals for percentage wasn't favorable, but his expected goals for percentage of 52.21 showed he could have been driving possession with a few more generous bounces.

Another reason to bank on Konecny's resurgence is his age. He's only 24 years old and already has five seasons under his belt. Konecny hasn't even entered his prime yet, and the Flyers remain deep enough up front to ensure he'll get an ample number of chances to fulfil his potential once again.

Frederik Andersen

Kevin Sousa / National Hockey League / Getty

Expectations aren't exactly high for Andersen, who's coming off the worst campaign of his career - both from health and statistical standpoints. But if he's able to put his injury woes behind him in his new surroundings, the Danish goaltender could certainly bounce back with the Carolina Hurricanes.

The big question, of course, is whether he's fully healed from a knee injury after playing through it, losing his starting job, and being limited to 24 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2021. However, the Hurricanes present an intriguing opportunity for the veteran, who turned 32 on Saturday.

If Andersen is healthy, he'll be set up for success on a competitive Carolina club that should drive possession and remain defensively sound despite losing Dougie Hamilton. But the other question is how Andersen will share the crease with fellow newcomer Antti Raanta, who's also dealt with his fair share of injuries. If Andersen even gets around 60% of the starts this season, he'll warrant fantasy consideration.

Tyler Johnson

Scott Audette / National Hockey League / Getty

This is a case of a solid but unspectacular player who could return to his prime form if his situation remains as is throughout 2021-22. Johnson didn't produce much offensively over his last two campaigns with the Tampa Bay Lightning because he was playing a different role than he had for many of his first six-plus seasons.

However, the Chicago Blackhawks acquired Johnson from the Lightning in a July trade, and he now finds himself centering his new squad's top line between Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane. That assignment alone bodes well for his offensive resurgence if it sticks, and he's proven capable of impressive numbers in the past.

Johnson has only tied his career high with 29 goals in 2018-19, and while the 31-year-old may not match that considering how much his linemates fill the net, merely being on the same forward unit as those two snipers should ensure Johnson has no problem piling up points.

Rickard Rakell

Michael Martin / National Hockey League / Getty

Before 2021, the primary concern regarding Rakell was his inability to play a full campaign due to injuries. But despite missing 30 games over the previous two seasons, the talented Anaheim Ducks winger suited up for all but four contests this past year.

Rakell's bigger problem last campaign was that he was supremely unlucky. He scored only nine goals to go along with 19 assists, shooting a career-worst 6.3%, which paled into comparison to his rate of 11.9 in seven-plus prior seasons. Rakell led the Ducks by 50 with 144 shots on goal in 2021, and if he'd converted at his usual clip, he'd have scored 17 or 27 times over an 82-game pace.

The 28-year-old will likely skate alongside Ryan Getzlaf on Anaheim's second line as well as on the team's top power-play unit. The Ducks produced the fewest goals in the league in 2021, but the expected progression of their young phenoms should make the side a bit better, and Rakell should have even more opportunities to hit the scoresheet than he did last season.

(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick)

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Ranking the NHL’s 5 best defense pairings entering 2021-22

As important as it is to have a dangerous top line, icing an elite defense pairing who can shut them down and turn play in the other direction is just as - if not more - integral to success.

Below, we rank the five best blue-line duos in the NHL entering the new campaign.

All stats are from the 2020-21 season at five-on-five:
TOI = time on ice together
GF% = goals for percentage
xGF% = expected goals for percentage

5. MacKenzie Weegar-Aaron Ekblad

Eliot J. Schechter / National Hockey League / Getty
TOI GF% xGF%
517 59.9 56.7

Weegar and Ekblad have been teammates with the Florida Panthers for four straight seasons but only became regular partners over the last two. They're an odd pairing since they both shoot right. Every other pairing on this list is left-right, and the vast majority of same-handed pairings around the league are left-left.

Nonetheless, Weegar seems to have no issues playing on his off side. As a former No. 1 pick, Ekblad is obviously the headliner, but Weegar has quietly been one of the league's most effective blue-liners over the last couple seasons.

Weegar posted outstanding underlying numbers this past campaign, leading to an eighth-place finish in Norris Trophy voting. He managed to thrive after Ekblad went down with a season-ending injury, registering 17 points in his final 19 regular-season games.

4. Ryan Lindgren-Adam Fox

Bruce Bennett / Getty Images Sport / Getty
TOI GF% xGF%
664 66.6 59.1

Lindgren and Fox have been inseparable since entering the league as rookies in 2019-20 for the New York Rangers, playing nearly all of their five-on-five minutes together. They've proven to be quite the duo, too. After playing softer minutes in their first year, the pair excelled while matching up against top competition in 2020-21.

Fox is the much-deserved reigning Norris Trophy winner, so, obviously, he's the marquee member of this pairing. But Lindgren is certainly no slouch; he makes smart, steady plays with the puck and boasts a physical game for his size (6-feet, 191 pounds).

This pairing is already elite, but it should climb this list in years to come considering both players are just 23.

3. Matt Grzelcyk-Charlie McAvoy

Adam Glanzman / Getty Images Sport / Getty
TOI GF% xGF%
342 73.2 66.3

There's a caveat here: Grzelcyk and McAvoy aren't each other's exclusive partners. They played more minutes together than any other two Boston Bruins defensemen, but McAvoy played nearly as many minutes with Jeremy Lauzon, while Grzelcyk logged significant time with both Brandon Carlo and Kevan Miller.

It's also unclear whether Boston's two best defensemen will start the season together. Head coach Bruce Cassidy may want to split them up to anchor their own pairing.

However, it's clear that when they are together, they form an elite combo. Among pairings to log at least 300 five-on-five minutes, Grzelcyk and McAvoy ranked second in GF% and xGF% behind only Mark Giordano and Chris Tanev.

2. Devon Toews-Cale Makar

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty
TOI GF% xGF%
366 66.4 64.4

Toews was a welcome addition to the Colorado Avalanche last season, posting a career-best 31 points while finishing 11th in Norris Trophy voting. He served as a steadying presence to complement the running-and-gunning Makar, who finished as the Norris Trophy runner-up and likely would've won the award had he stayed healthy

The Avalanche tend to switch their D pairings around a lot, but it's clear the combination of Toews and Makar was most effective. The duo finished third in the league in GF% and xGF% among defense pairings with at least 300 five-on-five minutes together.

The 2020-21 campaign was their first together, and even though Toews is out to begin this year as he recovers from offseason shoulder surgery, it's clear this pairing has ample room to grow moving forward.

1. Adam Pelech-Ryan Pulock

Mike Stobe / National Hockey League / Getty
TOI GF% xGF%
777 60.1 61.6

The New York Islanders have been the league's stingiest defensive team over the last few years. While much of the credit deservingly goes to head coach Barry Trotz, the pairing of Pelech and Pulock is a massive part of that success.

Consider this: Without Pelech and Pulock on the ice at five-on-five, the Islanders' GF% drops nearly 7% and their xGF% decreases by almost 12%. Trotz has a great system in place, but the Isles get outplayed when their top D pairing is on the bench.

This is what separates Pelech-Pulock from Toews-Makar or Grzelcyk-McAvoy. The Avalanche and Bruins are still very strong possession teams without their top D-men on the ice, but the Islanders suffer without their best pairing. Pelech and Pulock also start just 33% of shifts in the offensive zone that aren't on the fly, while most other pairings on this list are near 50% or higher.

Pelech and Pulock keep the puck away from their net and drive play in the other direction. That's exactly what you want out of a defense pairing.

(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)

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Lehner calls out NHLPA over Eichel saga

Robin Lehner is going to bat for his former teammate.

The Vegas Golden Knights goaltender called out the NHL Players' Association on Friday amid drama surrounding Buffalo Sabres captain Jack Eichel.

Eichel missed the second half of last season due to a herniated disk in his neck, and he and the team have been in a stalemate on how to proceed ever since. The team wants him to repair the ailment with a fusion surgery, while Eichel wants to undergo an artificial disc replacement procedure. The Sabres have denied Eichel's preferred method, possibly since it's a relatively new surgery that hasn't been performed on an NHL player before.

The Sabres stripped Eichel of his captaincy Sept. 23 after he failed his physical.

Lehner - who played with Eichel in Buffalo from 2015-2018 - was persistent in his efforts to get the NHLPA's attention.

Lehner also appeared on the "Spittin' Chiclets" podcast this past week to discuss the situation.

Lehner has never been shy about speaking up for what he believes is right. In April, he called out the league for apparently failing to keep promises about loosening restrictions for vaccinated players. The 30-year-old, who's been diagnosed with Bipolar I disorder, has also become an advocate for open discussions about mental illnesses.

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Report: Canucks agree to multi-year deals with Hughes, Pettersson

The Vancouver Canucks locked up two key pieces of their core.

Vancouver agreed to terms with forward Elias Pettersson on a three-year deal worth $7.35 million per season and defenseman Quinn Hughes on a six-year pact worth $7.85 million annually, reports TSN's Pierre LeBrun and Darren Dreger.

The combined cap hit of $15.2 million puts the Canucks nearly $1.5 million over the cap ceiling with a roster size of 22, according to CapFriendly. However, the team can create an additional $3.5 million in space by placing forward Micheal Ferland on long-term injured reserve.

Pettersson, the 2019 Calder Trophy winner, recorded 21 points in 26 games during an injury-plagued 2020-21 campaign. The highly skilled Swede projected to center Vancouver's top line this season.

Hughes, the 2020 Calder runner-up, tallied 41 points in 56 contests last season. He's expected to anchor the Canucks' top defense pairing and quarterback their No. 1 power-play unit in 2021-22.

The Canucks selected Pettersson fifth overall in the 2017 NHL Draft and took Hughes seventh overall a year later.

Ottawa Senators winger Brady Tkachuk is the only remaining prominent restricted free agent in the league.

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Rinaldo won’t play in Blue Jackets organization due to vaccination status

The Columbus Blue Jackets aren't allowing Zac Rinaldo to play in the organization this season due to his vaccination status.

The 31-year-old signed a one-year, two-way deal with the club this offseason. He cleared waivers Friday but won't be assigned to the AHL, the team announced.

However, the Blue Jackets will still honor his contract.

"Given the impact COVID-19 continues to have in our communities, we believe the best course of action given Zac's vaccination status is to not have him report to Cleveland at this time," general manager Jarmo Kekalainen said.

He added: "While we respect an individual's right to make a personal choice with regards to being vaccinated or not, we have a responsibility to do what we believe is best for our organization. We will honor Zac's contract, but if he wants to pursue any other opportunities to play this season we will allow him to do so."

Rinaldo has recorded 18 goals, 24 assists, and 758 penalty minutes in 374 career NHL games with five different teams.

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2021 Calder Trophy odds: Caufield favored to end Habs’ drought

The Montreal Canadiens are a truly historic franchise that has succeeded in pretty much every way imaginable.

However, believe it or not, the Canadiens haven't rostered a Calder Trophy winner since Ken Dryden in the 1971-72 season.

This looks to be the year that changes.

Player Odds to win
Cole Caufield +300
Trevor Zegras +500
Alex Nedeljkovic +1000
Spencer Knight +1000
Marco Rossi +1200
Moritz Seider +1200
Alex Newhook +1500
Vasily Podkolzin +1500
Quinton Byfield +1500
Jamie Drysdale +1800
Bowen Byram +2200
Nick Robertson +2500
Vitali Kravtsov +2500
Jeremy Swaymon +2500
Lucas Raymond +2500
Matt Boldy +3000

Only listing players with odds 30-1 or shorter.

Cole Caufield (+300)

There are a lot of unknowns with rookies. You generally can't predict how quickly they'll pick up the NHL game, what kind of role they'll play, or which players they'll skate on a line with prior to getting money down. That's not the case here, which is why we start things out with some chalk.

A lot of these rookies might be good NHL players - we already know Caufield is. He has eight goals and 17 points through 30 games (playoffs included) and is one of the biggest offensive threats on the roster. He actually led all Canadiens in points per minute at five-on-five during their run to the Stanley Cup Final. That was no fluke as he generated scoring chances at a more efficient clip than all but Brendan Gallagher.

Caufield is a dynamic and productive player who will get all the opportunity in the world playing alongside Tyler Toffoli and Nick Suzuki on the top line. As long as he stays healthy, it's hard to see another rookie putting together a better season.

Spencer Knight (+1000)

This is both a pro-Knight play and an anti-Sergei Bobrovsky play. Knight is one of the best prospects in hockey. He was a high pick, dominated the NCAA ranks, and showed well during his cup of coffee with the Florida Panthers late last season.

Simply put, he appears ready for a prominent role at the NHL level. That's good news because the Panthers likely need him to take one.

Bobrovsky, despite his enormous salary, is a subpar goaltender at this stage of his career. While the Panthers aren't going to throw him by the wayside entirely, it's within the realm of possibility he loses his job as the starter.

Should that be the case, you're looking at a top-tier goaltending prospect playing regularly for a team that - if the netminding holds up - could challenge for a division title.

It's a good environment for Knight to pile up wins and enjoy success in his rookie campaign.

Lucas Raymond (+2500)

The Detroit Red Wings are heading for yet another long season. They're a bad hockey team and play in an unforgiving division, featuring the Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins, and Panthers, among others.

Add in the fact one of their best players, Jakub Vrana, is already out long term with an injury, and the outlook for the Red Wings is even bleaker.

There's always a bright spot, though, and Raymond is destined to be that for Detroit. Last season he averaged more than .50 points per game in the SHL, which is very impressive for an 18-year-old playing in a professional league.

The ultra-talented winger should step into Detroit's lineup immediately and see plenty of ice. Developing youngsters like Raymond is priority No. 1 for the Red Wings. There's even more opportunity to go around with Vrana out of the picture. If you want to take a stab on a wild card, so to speak, Raymond is the guy.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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2021-22 NHL Vezina Trophy odds: Which goalies are worth betting?

If you're going to bet on one position group in hockey while hoping for predictable consistency, it would be literally any other market than goaltenders. There hasn't been a back-to-back Vezina winner since Martin Brodeur, who turns 50 next year.

To make things harder to predict, there are just 32 voters. They're the NHL's general managers, who spend the whole season worrying about their own teams and then are asked to pick the league's top goalie.

Here's how the oddsboard shapes up prior to the 2021-22 season:

(Only players with 40-1 odds or shorter are listed)

Goalie Odds
Andrei Vasilevskiy +380
Connor Hellebuyck +900
Darcy Kuemper +1000
Marc-Andre Fleury +1000
Carey Price +1400
Philipp Grubauer +1500
Robin Lehner +1600
Semyon Varlamov +1700
Thatcher Demko +1700
Frederik Andersen +1800
Petr Mrazek +1800
Igor Shesterkin +2100
Jeremy Swayman +2200
Spencer Knight +2200
Jordan Binnington +2300
Alex Nedeljkovic +2400
Jack Campbell +2400
Juuse Saros +2400
Chris Driedger +2500
Ilya Sorokin +2500
Ilya Samsonov +2600
Cam Talbot +3200
Carter Hart +3200
Anton Khudobin +3300
Sergei Bobrovsky +3300
Ben Bishop +3400
Linus Ullmark +3400
John Gibson +3500
Calvin Peterson +3800
Tuukka Rask +3800
Elvis Merzlikins +4000
Jacob Markstrom +4000
Mackenzie Blackwood +4000

Who usually wins?

Let's take a look back to 2008 at the age of the goalie when they won, their team's point percentage that season, and their goals saved above average (GSAA) the year prior to winning.

Year Winner Age Team's point % Previous year GSAA
2021 Marc-Andre Fleury 36 73.2 -6.50
2020 Connor Hellebuyck 26 56.3 5.86
2019 Andrei Vasilevskiy 24 78.0 15.12
2018 Pekka Rinne 35 71.3 8.05
2017 Sergei Bobrovsky 28 65.8 -7.69
2016 Braden Holtby 26 73.2 17.46
2015 Carey Price 31 67.1 23.51
2014 Tuukka Rask 26 71.3 16.32
2013 Sergei Bobrovsky 24 57.3 -11.51
2012 Henrik Lundqvist 29 66.5 19.18
2011 Tim Thomas 36 62.8 4.34
2010 Ryan Miller 29 60.9 17.25
2009 Tim Thomas 34 70.7 21.25
2008 Martin Brodeur 35 60.4 35.76

Marc-Andre Fleury's win last year - in addition to Thomas and Brodeur taking the honor - pull the average age for a winner up. But the key takeaway is there have been both young and old winners.

Connor Hellebuyck is the outlier as far as team performance goes. Every other goaltender listed played for a club that finished with a points percentage above 60% and was at least a 99-point team.

Lastly, a netminder doesn't need to play well the season prior. There are a few negative GSAA seasons listed, and a few more single-digit ones.

Which is why the Vezina Trophy market is difficult to predict. Still, here are three netminders worth backing this season:

Robin Lehner +1600

Lehner is a physical monster who turned 30 this summer, and he's got the net to himself for the first time in his career. He's also starting for a Stanley Cup contender, and the Golden Knights' defensive infrastructure factored into Fleury's Vezina-winning season.

Vegas gave Lehner a vote of confidence while shipping Fleury to Chicago. The team no doubt hopes he can return to his pre-pandemic form when the Swede claimed the starting job with the league's seventh-best GSAA.

Thatcher Demko +1700

Demko has also been handed sole possession of the crease. The Canucks' absurd move to make him split time with Braden Holtby last year never made sense. While the season was a complete disaster on many levels for Vancouver, Demko followed his epic playoff run in the bubble with the eighth-best GSAA.

Now he should receive close to 60 starts, and the Canucks might be able to reach the 99-point threshold if they get everyone signed and healthy for the first time since last summer. Demko would get a ton of credit if the team reaches that mark, especially after stealing playoff games in 2020 to initially get on NHL radars.

Juuse Saros +2400

While last year's stats aren't nearly the perfect predictor, the 26-year-old Nashville Predator was the league's best goaltender starting in mid-February.

Like the aforementioned two goalies, there was a veteran (Pekka Rinne) stealing starts from Saros. Following a rough three-game stretch during the first week of February - in which he allowed 15 goals over three games - Saros went on a ridiculous run, posting a .940 save percentage and a 1.90 goals-against average over the rest of the season.

Saros single-handedly dragged the Predators into the playoffs, and then he finished among the top five in Vezina voting. Now he'll get a chance to do it again for a full season with Rinne retired.

If he does, Saros will win the award this time around.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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