Maple Leafs sign Hobey Baker Award winner McKay to AHL deal

The Toronto Maple Leafs have won the Dryden McKay sweepstakes.

The club signed the reigning Hobey Baker Award winner to a two-year AHL contract.

McKay was named the NCAA's top men's hockey player April 8. The goaltender, who'll turn 25 in November, set a national record for wins in a season and helped Minnesota State-Mankato advance to the national championship game. He produced a .931 save percentage over 43 contests in 2021-22, his senior year.

The netminder became an NHL free agent when the Mavericks lost the title game to Denver.

Earlier in April, just days after winning the Hobey Baker Award, McKay accepted a six-month sanction by the USADA due to a doping violation. He'll be allowed to use the Maple Leafs' facilities as of Aug. 25, and he can play for the Marlies beginning Oct. 11.

McKay could've been subject to a four-year period of ineligibility - despite the completion of his college career - but he was able to prove that the positive test for ostarine resulted from a contaminated vitamin D supplement. He was tested while serving as an alternate for the U.S. Olympic team in January.

The Illinois-born goalie is named after legendary puck-stopper Ken Dryden, who was the Maple Leafs' president from 1997-2003.

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NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 26

Mercifully, we've reached the last week of the regular season. With just a handful of games left and less at stake, the goal for many teams with Stanley Cup aspirations is to stay healthy.

Intrepid bettors need to be aware in the final week of who's in the lineup on a nightly basis and who starts in goal. While it's tough for many teams to decipher who the better netminder is earlier in the campaign, we now have enough data to form a clearer picture.

After nearly a full season of results and with help from Evolvinghockey.com, the following are the squads with the biggest statistical drop-off from one goaltender to another by goals saved above expected (GSAx) and the team's record on the moneyline with each goalie in net (as of games played on April 23).

TEAM GOALIE GSAx ML RECORD
Rangers Igor Shesterkin 38.21 36-16
Alexandar Georgiev -4.8 14-11
Hurricanes Frederik Andersen 28.47 35-17
Antti Raanta 8.16 14-19
Islanders* Ilya Sorokin 20.99 25-25
Semyon Varlamov 2.62 9-18
Blues Ville Husso 17.51 24-12
Jordan Binnington -9.15 18-17
Flames Jacob Markstrom 17.31 37-23
Dan Vladar -4.35 12-7
Lightning Andrei Vasilevskiy 15.63 36-23
Brian Elliott 0.93 11-6
Avalanche Darcy Kuemper 15.02 36-14
Pavel Francouz 0.27 15-5
Predators Juuse Saros 13.59 38-28
David Rittich -6.04 5-5
Panthers Sergei Bobrovsky 12.09 39-9
Spencer Knight -1.09 18-11
Kings Jonathan Quick 12.0 22-22
Calvin Peterson -8.02 20-15

*Will not be participating in 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs

When betting these teams in the final week, there should be a consideration for who's starting. The Islanders, Blues, Panthers, and perhaps the Kings all might have been surprised by who their best goaltender was this season, despite L.A. having a better record in Cal Peterson's starts.

Meanwhile, a half-dozen playoff-caliber clubs don't have much statistical difference between netminders should one start over the other.

TEAM GOALIE GSAx ML RECORD
Stars Jake Oettinger -0.36 28-16
Braden Holtby -1.12 10-11
Capitals Vanecek 0.71 20-16
Samsonov -9.2 23-15
Oilers Mike Smith 3.88 15-11
Mikko Koskinen -4.87 25-15
Bruins Jeremy Swayman -1.88 22-16
Linus Ullmark -5.09 24-12
Penguins Tristan Jarry 6.58 34-24
Casey Desmith -2.3 10-10

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 90% of our total rating. Basing 10% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold and may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Tuesday, April 26

GAME WIN PROB.(%) TRUE ML PRICE TO BET
DET@TOR 22.8/77.2 +339/-339 DET +433/TOR -321
NJD@OTT 53.9/46.1 -117/+117 NJD -112/OTT +138
EDM@PIT 48.1/51.9 +108/-108 EDM +119/PIT +102
FLA@BOS 51.8/48.2 -108/+108 FLA +103/BOS +119
CAR@NYR 50.9/49.1 -104/+104 CAR +107/NYR +115
CBJ@TBL 25.9/74.1 +287/-287 CBJ +358/TBL -272
NYI@WSH 39.8/60.2 +151/-151 NYI +179/WSH -145
CGY@NSH 51/49 -104/+104 CGY +106/NSH +115
ARI@MIN 21.1/78.9 +373/-373 ARI +484/MIN -352
VGK@DAL 44.7/55.3 +124/-124 VGK +146/DAL -119
STL@COL 37.8/62.2 +165/-165 STL +196/COL -158
SEA@VAN 31.9/68.1 +213/-213 SEA +258/VAN -204
ANA@SJS 45.2/54.8 +121/-121 ANA +143/SJS -116

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the market's prices. From there, compile a list of wagers. After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if any line movements created value that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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DeBoer: Collapse to Sharks would be hard ‘to sleep on’ if Knights miss playoffs

Peter DeBoer knows full well how much his Vegas Golden Knights' late-game letdown against the San Jose Sharks on Sunday could haunt him and his team if they fail to reach the postseason.

"You hope that it doesn't cost us a playoff spot," the Golden Knights head coach said after his club blew a two-goal lead in the final two-plus minutes of regulation before falling in a shootout. "If it does, that's a tough one to sleep on all summer, but I'm going to look at the glass half-full here.

"We found a way to get a point, and hopefully that point is the difference between us making it or not."

Nicolas Roy gave the Golden Knights a 4-2 lead early in the third period, but Sharks forward Nick Bonino scored with 2:06 remaining and teammate Timo Meier tied the game with less than a second left. No one scored in overtime, and San Jose rookie Thomas Bordeleau produced the only goal in a shootout that also featured Logan Couture, Jack Eichel, Meier, and Shea Theodore.

Vegas captain Mark Stone had a chance to seal it late regulation but failed to hit the empty net from inside his squad's offensive zone.

"I don't think anything got away from us, I think it was just missed opportunities," he said. "Game's over if I put that in, so it's tough for me to look back and say we did a ton wrong. We just have to close out games. We can't allow two goals in the last two minutes, and when you get the opportunities, you've got to finish them. So, (it's a) tough one to swallow for me."

Vegas now sits three points behind the Dallas Stars for the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference and four behind the Nashville Predators for the first one. All three teams have three games remaining in their regular-season schedules.

The Golden Knights hold the tiebreaker over the Stars with three more regulation wins, but the odds aren't in Vegas' favor.

Sunday's collapse came nearly three years to the day after the Sharks stunned the Golden Knights in Game 7 of their first-round playoff series on April 23, 2019. San Jose stormed back in that contest with four third-period goals en route to a 5-4 victory in overtime.

DeBoer coached the Sharks for four-plus seasons before San Jose fired him in December 2019. Just over a month later, the Golden Knights dismissed bench boss Gerard Gallant and hired DeBoer to replace him.

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Ovechkin day-to-day after leaving game vs. Maple Leafs with injury

Alex Ovechkin appears to have avoided a significant injury after departing Sunday's loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the third period.

The Washington Capitals star is day-to-day with an upper-body ailment.

Ovechkin was unable to return to the 4-3 shootout defeat. The 36-year-old missed on a breakaway attempt and seemed to trip over Maple Leafs netminder Erik Kallgren's stick. He then collided into the boards, where his shoulder appeared to take the brunt of the impact.

Ovechkin stayed down on the ice for several seconds before getting up. He jawed at the officials before skating off, seemingly upset that there was no penalty called on the play.

The veteran winger has missed just two contests this season, both due to COVID-19 protocol. Ovechkin's shown no signs of slowing down in the later years of his NHL tenure and reached 50 goals in a season for the ninth time in his career earlier this week.

The Capitals have three games remaining on their regular-season schedule and have already clinched a spot in the playoffs for the eighth straight year.

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Lehner dresses in loss to Sharks despite reports of season-ending surgery

Robin Lehner dressed as the Vegas Golden Knights' backup goaltender behind Logan Thompson for Sunday's clash against the San Jose Sharks, just days after the club refuted reports claiming he required season-ending surgery.

There was speculation Lehner was playing through a significant knee injury sustained in March, but head coach Peter DeBoer said his No. 1 netminder missed practice Friday due to taking a maintenance day.

Lehner has battled injuries throughout the season, landing on injured reserve twice for different ailments.

The 30-year-old has had a poor season by his standards, with a .907 save percentage and minus-0.5 goals saved above average across 44 appearances.

Vegas ultimately lost the game in heartbreaking fashion. The Golden Knights led 4-2 with just over two minutes remaining in regulation, but the Sharks stormed back and forced overtime with 0.9 seconds left on the clock. San Jose rookie Thomas Bordeleau then scored the shootout winner.

With the loss, the Golden Knights sit three points back of the second wild-card position in the Western Conference with three games remaining.

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Watch: Canadiens’ crowd honors Lafleur with touching 10-minute ovation

The Montreal Canadiens' faithful delivered an unforgettable memorial in the club's first home game since the death of Guy Lafleur.

On top of a touching video tribute, the Bell Centre crowd gave a 10-minute standing ovation and participated in a moment of silence before Sunday's contest against the Boston Bruins.

Lafleur, one of the most decorated players in NHL history, died Friday at the age of 70. After being selected first overall by Montreal in 1971, "The Flower" went on to win five Stanley Cups, three Art Ross trophies, two MVPs, and a Conn Smythe.

He's also the Canadiens' all-time leader in assists (728) and points (1,246).

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Watch: An emotional Getzlaf thanks Ducks fans after final NHL game

After the final horn sounded on his last NHL game, Ryan Getzlaf had one more order of business before officially retiring.

He had to say goodbye to the Anaheim Ducks' faithful.

"I don't really know how to start this, but I just want to say thank you so much to everyone in the building tonight," Getzlaf said. "This has been the most special night of my life. ... This has been the best journey of my life. I've got to live out a dream here in Anaheim."

The Ducks may not have given their longtime captain a win to cap off his career, but Getzlaf still had a special moment during the 6-3 loss to the St. Louis Blues. He set up Adam Henrique with a show-stopping, behind-the-back assist in the dying minutes of the contest.

Even the Blues had to tip their caps:

Getzlaf ends his NHL career as the Ducks' all-time leader in games played (1,157), assists (737), and points (1,019). He was also a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs, logging 37 goals and 83 helpers in 125 career postseason contests. He led the Ducks with 17 points en route to their Stanley Cup victory in 2007.

The Saskatchewan native cleaned up on the international stage as well, helping Canada to two Olympic gold medals, a world junior gold medal, a U18 gold medal, and a World Cup.

The Ducks selected Getzlaf 19th overall in the 2003 draft. He spent the entirety of his 17-year career in Anaheim.

The team has two road games remaining on the season, but Getzlaf won't suit up.

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Oilers’ Nurse day-to-day with minor injury

Darnell Nurse's injury doesn't appear to be serious, but it will keep him out short term.

The Edmonton Oilers' top defenseman left Friday's game against the Colorado Avalanche with a lower-body ailment and is not with the club on its two-game road trip beginning Sunday against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Nurse's injury is "nothing major," Oilers head coach Jay Woodcroft said Sunday, according to The Athletic's Daniel Nugent-Bowman.

Asked if Nurse will be ready for the start of the playoffs, Woodcroft said: "We'll see."

Here's the play where Nurse appeared to get hurt:

Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman offered a more optimistic update during Hockey Night in Canada on Saturday.

"I think it's just (rest and relaxation)," Friedman said on the broadcast. "It doesn't sound like they are so concerned at all. He will be ready for the playoffs, if not sooner."

Nurse has nine goals and 26 assists in 71 games this season. The 27-year-old leads all Oilers skaters with 25:03 of average ice time.

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