The team's star-studded roster includes three players loaned from NHL teams in Seattle Kraken forward Shane Wright, Arizona Coyotes forward Dylan Guenther, and Los Angeles Kings defenseman Brandt Clarke.
Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli, both projected top picks in the 2023 NHL Draft, are also expected to play a significant role.
The team's star-studded roster includes three players loaned from NHL teams in Seattle Kraken forward Shane Wright, Arizona Coyotes forward Dylan Guenther, and Los Angeles Kings defenseman Brandt Clarke.
Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli, both projected top picks in the 2023 NHL Draft, are also expected to play a significant role.
The Canucks captain is set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.
Horvat is in the midst of a career year. He ranks fourth in the NHL with 20 goals through 28 games and is playing a career-high 20:53 per night. Horvat has been dominant at the dot as well, leading the NHL in faceoffs taken and winning 57.7% of his draws.
The 27-year-old has played his entire 600-game NHL career with Vancouver. He was named captain ahead of the 2019-20 campaign.
Horvat's $5.5-million cap hit is manageable for contending teams that could be in the market for center depth ahead of the March 3 trade deadline.
Tolvanen was selected 30th overall by the Predators in 2017 and generated plenty of hype as a prospect. He's tallied just 25 goals and 26 assists across 135 career NHL games but has produced stellar defensive metrics.
Tolvanen is signed through next season with a $1.45-million cap hit and will be a restricted free agent at the end of the deal.
The Finn looked to be bound for stardom after he broke Evgeny Kuznetsov's KHL single-season record for points by a teenager when he recorded 36 in 49 games with the Helsinki Jokerit in 2017-18.
He's also dazzled on the international stage, registering nine points in five games at the 2018 Olympics and 16 points in 18 career games at the world juniors, where he helped Finland win gold in 2019.
Tolvanen caught fire down the stretch in his NHL rookie season in 2021, finishing with 13 points in his final 18 games, but he struggled to produce in his sophomore campaign. He's only managed two goals and two assists in 13 contests this year and has been a healthy scratch on numerous occasions.
The Kraken placed Karson Kuhlman on waivers to make room for Tolvanen.
Early this season, we tried to determine how much Aaron Ekblad affected the Panthers' win probability in any given game. The market being slow to downgrade the Panthers without Ekblad, who averages over 24 minutes per game, led to a profitable stretch of betting against Florida.
Last Monday, another Stanley Cup contender got bad injury news when the Avalanche's Nathan MacKinnon suffered an upper body injury that will keep him out for four weeks. So how do we determine how much a star like MacKinnon matters to moneyline prices and Colorado's implied win probability?
The Avs' next game came against the red-hot Bruins in Colorado. Our rating on each team has been really solid, only occasionally finding value backing or fading each team. As a result, with MacKinnon, the line was going to look something like Bruins -115 / Avalanche -105.
With MacKinnon announced out, the line opened Bruins -160/Avalanche +140, and eventually closed Bruins -175/Avalanche +150. This gives us our first look at what the betting market thinks of the Avalanche's chances to win a game without their star forward:
ML
Implied win prob.
w/ MacKinnon
-105
51.2%
w/o MacKinnon
+150
40%
That's an 11% change in win probability with MacKinnon out. The Avalanche lost that game 4-0 to Boston, getting dominated at even strength.
Next up, the Rangers visited Denver on Friday and we projected a fair moneyline of +109/-109, so a line of Rangers +100/Avalanche -120 would be expected. Instead, New York was lined at -150 and Colorado +130. Let's look at the difference in implied win probability:
ML
Implied win prob.
w/ MacKinnon
-120
54.5%
w/o MacKinnon
+130
43.5%
Look at that. Another 11% adjustment without MacKinnon, and a loss to the Rangers.
Basically, it took two games for us to find out what effect a missing MacKinnon has on Colorado's chances to win on a game-to-game basis. If the Avalanche continue to get dominated, though, we'll have to adjust them down, and if they rally without their star forward, we can lower "The MacKinnon Effect" from 11%.
The recipe
We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's still our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we'll adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records (which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events).
The cheat sheet
There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?
The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.
When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.
DATE
GAME
TRUE ML
PRICE TO BET
Dec. 12
NJD@NYR
+102/-102
NJD +113/NYR +108
CGY@MTL
-159/+159
CGY -153/MTL +189
DAL@PIT
+117/-117
DAL +138/PIT -112
ANA@OTT
+161/-161
ANA +191/OTT -154
NSH@STL
+110/-110
NSH +122/STL +100
EDM@MIN
+121/-121
EDM +143/MIN -116
Dec. 13
ANA@TOR
+297/-297
ANA +372/TOR -282
SEA@TBL
+163/-163
SEA +194/TBL -156
DAL@NJD
+184/-184
DAL +220/NJD -176
LAK@BUF
-112/+112
LAK -108/BUF +132
CBJ@FLA
+317/-317
CBJ +400/FLA -300
NYI@BOS
+170/-170
NYI +203/BOS -163
CAR@DET
-139/+139
CAR -134/DET +165
VGK@WPG
+122/-122
VGK +144/WPG -117
EDM@NSH
+134/-134
EDM +158/NSH -129
WSH@CHI
-143/+143
WSH -138/CHI +170
PHI@COL
+125/-125
PHI +148/COL -120
ARI@SJS
+179/-179
ARI +214/SJS -172
Dec. 14
MTL@OTT
+163/-163
MTL +195/OTT -157
DET@MIN
+164/-164
DET +196/MIN -158
VAN@CGY
+160/-160
VAN +190/CGY -153
Dec. 15
ANA@MTL
-106/+106
ANA +105/MTL +117
SEA@CAR
+173/-173
SEA +206/CAR -166
DAL@WSH
+111/-111
DAL +130/WSH -106
TOR@NYR
+108/-108
TOR +120/NYR +102
LAK@BOS
+148/-148
LAK +176/BOS -142
PHI@NJD
+240/-240
PHI +294/NJD -229
PIT@FLA
+164/-164
PIT +195/FLA -157
CBJ@TBL
+267/-267
CBJ +330/TBL -254
NSH@WPG
+107/-107
NSH +118/WPG +103
VGK@CHI
-131/+131
VGK -126/CHI +155
STL@EDM
+134/-134
STL +158/EDM -129
BUF@COL
+104/-104
BUF +115/COL +106
Dec. 16
CHI@MIN
+309/-309
CHI +388/MIN -293
STL@CGY
+181/-181
STL +216/CGY -173
NYI@ARI
-151/+151
NYI -145/ARI +179
Dec. 17
CBJ@BOS
+288/-288
CBJ +360/BOS -274
OTT@DET
+108/-108
OTT +119/DET +103
ANA@EDM
+202/-202
ANA +243/EDM -193
DAL@CAR
+151/-151
DAL +179/CAR -145
NYR@PHI
-145/+145
NYR -139/PHI +172
TBL@MTL
-168/+168
TBL -161/MTL +200
TOR@WSH
-107/+107
TOR +103/WSH +119
FLA@NJD
+107/-107
FLA +118/NJD +103
BUF@ARI
-147/+147
BUF -141/ARI +174
NSH@COL
-121/+121
NSH -117/COL +143
WPG@VAN
+111/-111
WPG +131/VAN -107
NYI@VGK
+138/-138
NYI +163/VGK -133Â
SJS@LAK
+158/-158
SJS +188/LAK -152
Dec. 18
OTT@MIN
+186/-186
OTT +222/MIN -178
PIT@CAR
+134/-134
PIT +158/CAR -129
NYR@CHI
-136/+136
NYR -131/CHI +161
WPG@SEA
+141/-141
WPG +167/SEA -135
CGY@SJS
-157/+157
CGY -151/SJS +187
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
Hockey Canada released a list of nine nominees for its new board of directors, subject to election Dec. 17.
The group of potential candidates includes: The Hon. Hugh L. Fraser (Chair), Grant Borbridge, Cassie Campbell-Pascall, Julie Duranceau, Dave Evans, Marni Fullerton, Jonathan F. Goldbloom, Marian Jacko, and Andrea Poole.
"We are grateful to the more than 550 candidates who applied to help guide the change at Hockey Canada," said Michael Bruni, chair of the nominating committee. "The nominees we've put forward represent the very best of Canadian society: bringing together the knowledge and experience necessary to create a new era in hockey that focuses on governance and cultural evolution."
Campbell-Pascall is the most recognizable name on the list. The 49-year-old won three Olympic gold medals and eight world championships in her playing career and later moved on to become a broadcaster for Sportsnet and ESPN.
Those selected to the new board will serve a one-year term. Backgrounds on the prospective candidates can be seen here.
Former Hockey Canada CEO Scott Smith and the rest of the organization's previous board of directors stepped down in October after months of scrutiny in the wake of a sexual assault lawsuit settled in May. In the lawsuit, a woman said eight unnamed CHL players, including members of Canada's 2018 world junior team, sexually assaulted her in June of that year.