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We were a game too early on the under, with our record falling to 9-4-1 since the start of Round 3.

With at most two games left in the season, let's finish strong.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-160) at Dallas Stars (+140)

On the back of the Stars' best effort of the series, Corey Perry's double-overtime winner on Saturday forced a Game 6. It's easy to look at the shot totals from that contest, with the Lightning holding a 41-33 edge, and say Dallas earned the victory thanks to Anton Khudobin, but that's lazy analysis.

Khudobin was solid but not spectacular on Saturday. His weakness - low blocker-side shots - was exploited again, and he saved just 0.15 goals above expected in regulation.

If anything, Tampa Bay netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy deserves praise. The 2019 Vezina winner was superb throughout the game, coming up especially big during the Stars' dominant first and third periods. That's when Dallas controlled 83.7% of the expected goal share at five-on-five.

Vasilevskiy is a massive reason why the Lightning even managed to get to overtime. The Stars were expected to score 3.16 goals in regulation, compared to 2.15 for the Bolts. Dallas also held a significant offensive edge throughout the game, generating 19 high-danger chances in 89 minutes of Game 5 action, while the Lightning created 12.

The Stars may have allowed a lot of shots, but their excellent defensive play returned, with the club forcing everything to the outside and minimizing the number of quality chances against. Confidence is flowing throughout this resilient bunch, and they won't go down easy.

Dallas seems to have rediscovered its game at the right time. At a generous price - and with Steven Stamkos ruled out for the series - back the Stars to force a Game 7.

Pick: Dallas Stars (+140)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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We dropped our first pick in awhile in Game 3, falling to 9-3-1 since the start of Round 3. It sure would have been nice to know about Steven Stamkos' return at the time of writing.

Let's bounce back in Game 4.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-160) at Dallas Stars (+140)

While the return of Stamkos had a galvanizing effect on the Lightning offense - he scored the game's second goal in a 5-2 win - it was also clouded by yet another injury. The forward managed just five shifts on 2:47 of ice time before leaving the game at the end of the first period and not returning.

That's put a cloud of doubt over his Game 4 status, which makes it tough to appropriately pick a side here. Obviously if Stamkos is deemed healthy enough to participate tonight we have to assume he's going to be a full go - this isn't the time to trot out decoys on the ice.

What we do know though is that if the Stars want to get into a run-and-gun affair with the Bolts, they're going to lose the Stanley Cup Final. That's not a slight to Dallas' forward group, but rather a testament to just how deep this Tampa team is. The Stars will need to focus on tightening things up again in Game 4 and playing to their strong suit.

It was also an off night for Anton Khudobin, who allowed 2.83 goals above expected. With a bounce back from the determined Stars netminder, and a shift in approach from the team in front of him, we can expect a much tighter contest on Friday night.

Pick: Under 5 (+115)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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No harm, no foul in Game 2, as a push on the under 5 takes our current run to 9-2-1 since the start of Round 3.

There's only so much money left to make in these playoffs, so let's get after it.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-155) at Dallas Stars (+135)

The Stanley Cup Final is now a best-of-five after the teams split the first two games, leading to a pressure-packed Game 3. Historically, clubs that win in this spot take the series 67.5% of the time.

To avoid joining the 32.5% there, the Stars need to get off to a better start. Down 1-0 in the series, the Lightning came out firing on all cylinders in Game 2. The Stars simply weren't prepared, falling into a 3-0 hole by just the 4:44 mark of the first period. Dallas allowed precious little after that, but the damage was done and the team's comeback fell short in a 3-2 loss.

With a better first period in that contest, the Stars could be holding a 2-0 series lead, but they came out a step behind the Bolts and it cost them dearly. The ice was tilted for the duration of the first period, resulting in three Dallas penalties and two power-play goals for Tampa. The Lightning built a three-goal lead over the first 20 minutes despite producing just 1.09 expected goals for, and a pedestrian 0.55 at five-on-five.

That game will serve as a wake-up call for the Stars, who should enjoy a much better start in the series-defining Game 3. Through two games they've shown their ability to suppress Tampa's offense, allowing just two goals and 17 high-danger chances at five-on-five. With Anton Khudobin still on top of his game, Dallas' defense in control, and the Stars getting last change for the first time in this series, I'll gladly scoop up the generous price of +135.

Pick: Stars (+135)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

We built on the momentum of our 8-2 record during Round 3 in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, nailing the Dallas Stars (+140) in one of my favorite situational bets of the playoffs.

We'll look to get that win column into double digits in Game 2.

Dallas Stars (+130) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-150)

After all the misguided talk about how much better the big, bad Lightning are now, the Stars certainly didn't look out of place in Game 1. Dallas was the better team on Saturday night and fully deserved the victory.

Doubters will point to the Lightning's dominant third period and suggest they were unlucky, but that sort of discrepancy is expected when a club enters the final frame down two goals. The Stars did what any other team would do, but they did it better, largely limiting the Lightning's quality third-period chances and holding them to just 0.77 expected goals at five-on-five.

Stars netminder Anton Khudobin has picked the best time to get hot, but although he was excellent while saving 1.96 goals above expected and stopping 35 of 36 shots in Game 1, the quality of chances he faced left a lot to be desired from the Lightning's perspective. He made a couple of big saves to deny Alex Killorn and Zach Bogosian, but Dallas' defense protected him well otherwise, with the unit keeping Tampa's offense to the periphery.

With a dialed-in Khudobin the last line of defense behind a Stars team playing on top of its game, the Lightning will need to fight for every inch in this series. Goals will be scarce throughout, and Dallas will want it that way. The teams combined for just 3.18 expected goals at five-on-five in Game 1, and with Khudobin and Andrei Vasilevskiy in net, the under is an automatic bet.

Pick: Under 5 (+110)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

We closed out Round 3 with an 8-2 record to continue what's been a very profitable postseason. Now, we're about to be treated to a terrific Stanley Cup Final between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars.

The Lightning entered the postseason as betting favorites in the Eastern Conference and have shown why by losing just four times en route to the finals.

Dallas took a much different path. The Stars began the playoffs with +1600 odds to win the Stanley Cup, which were only the fourth-best in the Western Conference and more than double that of the Vegas Golden Knights (+550) and Colorado Avalanche (+650), both of whom Dallas beat to secure a date with the Lightning.

The Stars were doubted every step of the way, being offered at longer than 2-1 to beat out the Avalanche and Golden Knights, as well as at plus-money in every game in those series. Oddsmakers are now offering them at +160 to lift the Stanley Cup for the second time in franchise history.

Here's how these teams have fared at five-on-five so far in the bubble, including round-robin play.

The Lightning hold an edge in almost every category, but these numbers don't tell the whole story.

Dallas faced two of the league's best possession teams, with the Golden Knights and Avalanche sitting first and second, respectively, among playoff teams in offense generated. Those matchups will prepare the Stars for a similar opponent in the Lightning.

The Stars have also significantly improved throughout the playoffs and enter the finals playing their best hockey. They did well to limit the Golden Knights to just 2.08 expected goals for per 60 minutes, well below their overall playoff rate of 2.80. Goalie Anton Khudobin found his form at the perfect time, too, posting a .950 save percentage in five games against Vegas, and the Stars' offensive consistency hasn't wavered.

Injuries will also play a significant role. Conn Smythe favorite Brayden Point is far from 100% as he continues to nurse a lower-body injury, and based on how the Lightning are monitoring his usage, it's safe to assume he'll miss at least one game and play at less than full strength when he is out there. Add in the fact that Steven Stamkos remains unavailable, and the needle shifts significantly in the Stars' direction.

Tampa Bay is still the favorite in this series, but much less so than the betting line indicates. For those considering a series bet on the Lightning, perhaps wait until after Game 1 for a potentially much better price.

Game 1 being played Saturday night is a significant disadvantage for the Lightning, who've played nearly nine periods of hockey in the last four nights while the Stars have been idle.

That's especially concerning for Point, whose status is up in the air after he played nearly 26 minutes in Game 6 against the New York Islanders. With the Lightning having less than 48 hours to recover from a grueling series, the Stars are excellent value to take Game 1 and move within three wins of lifting the Stanley Cup.

Should that happen, you'll get the Lightning at close to even money to win the series from down 1-0. But anything +140 or longer warrants a bet on the Stars to win it all.

Pick: Stars to win series (+160), Stars to win Game 1 (+140)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

All good things must come to an end. The Tampa Bay Lightning couldn't close it out for us, dropping our Round 3 record to 7-2.

But, at least we have more hockey now.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-150) @ New York Islanders (+130)

Our Lightning bet was hurt by Brayden Point being a surprise scratch for Game 5. The Conn Smythe favorite sat out the contest as the team tries to manage his injury, according to Joe Smith of The Athletic. Lightning head coach Jon Cooper said "it's too hard to tell right now" whether Point will be available in Game 6, so it's something to keep an eye on. For my money, though, I expect him to play.

Even without Point, Tampa Bay was comfortably in control of Game 5. The Lightning were expected to score 3.34 goals to just 1.88 for the Islanders - a 64% share - and the discrepancy was even bigger in regulation, with the Lightning controlling 68.1% of the expected goal share. Tampa Bay also created 14 high-danger scoring chances to just seven for New York.

The Lightning completely suffocated the Isles' offense and generated a total of 7.1 expected goals for during the last two games. The Islanders have managed just 4.1 expected goals in that time. Expect Tampa Bay to play with plenty of urgency with the threat of Game 7 looming. The Lightning will put in a complete performance to halt New York's comeback and punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final.

Pick: Lightning (-150)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

The Dallas Stars are the gift that keeps on giving. Oddsmakers hung another terrible price and we pounced again, taking our Round 3 record to a tidy 7-1.

Like the Stars, let's finish strong.

New York Islanders (+160) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-180)

There is a lot about this Islanders team that makes them easy to like. They're fiery and resilient, and they play a smart brand of hockey while leaving it all out on the ice on a nightly basis. But they're also tired.

New York has been playing intense playoff hockey since Aug. 1. While the team battled the Florida Panthers in the play-ins, the Lightning were coasting through the round-robin games. When the Islanders were exhausting their way through a seven-game series against the Philadelphia Flyers - including three overtime contests - Tampa Bay was recharging following a quick and straightforward series win over the Boston Bruins.

The Islanders have played a lot of hard minutes in these playoffs - Barry Trotz's system demands a lot from his players, and it's not uncommon for the wear and tear to catch up to them. And the fact of the matter is, you need a full tank to beat the Lightning.

New York is wearing down and Tampa Bay simply has too much firepower to overcome at less than full strength. There are no shifts off against the Bolts. They're four lines, three pairings, and a Vezina goalie deep. They come at you hard, and they come at you often.

To make matters worse for the Islanders, Casey Cizikas has officially been ruled out for the remainder of the series. Cizikas is a heart-and-soul guy and an integral part of New York's outstanding energy line. He's a key cog on the penalty kill, a spark plug, and someone who does all the little things.

It's been a great playoff run for the Islanders, and while it will offer little consolation right now, they're going to be very good again next season. But the Lightning have been the better team in this series, they're the most complete team in the NHL, and they will secure a deserved place in the Stanley Cup Final.

Pick: Lightning to win in regulation (-105)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

Back-to-back sweeps - the latest courtesy of the Stars and Lightning - push us to 6-1 in Round 2.

We haven't lost since Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals and don't plan to start again anytime soon.

Dallas Stars (+155) @ Vegas Golden Knights (-175)

I'm truly amazed at how generous sportsbooks still are during these playoffs. We've been taking advantage of the consistently terrible prices being hung on the Stars, dating back to the start of the postseason.

We were all in on Dallas at -118 to beat the Flames in Round 1, doubled down against the Avalanche at +1.5 games (-102) and to win Round 2 outright (+225), took them at +150 in Game 1 of this current series and +140 in Game 4, and sided with the club in several other games throughout the first two rounds. We've lost a couple of times with the Stars as well, but when you're consistently getting around +150 on the moneyline, there's hardly a dent.

How in the world are we still getting such a generous price with Dallas on a nightly basis? This team has stuck to their game throughout the playoffs and have executed it flawlessly. They're generating consistent offense and capitalizing on their chances - an important quality for a Stanley Cup winner - while continuing to limit quality offense against at five-on-five.

Add in some fine goaltending - Anton Khudobin is playing his best hockey of the playoffs in this series - and a Knights team needing a lot of chances to score, and it's just a bad matchup for Vegas, who remain massive favorites in every game. Regardless of what happens tonight, anyone not backing the Stars at +155 is betting the wrong way.

Pick: Stars (+155)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

We swept our Game 3 picks to move to 4-1 in the conference finals, and we'd like another sweep over the weekend.

Let's get after it.

Vegas Golden Knights (-160) @ Dallas Stars (+140)

Timely scoring is massive in the playoffs and the Stars have excelled in that area throughout the postseason. They've converted their chances at a high clip, with their top forward lines producing on a consistent basis. But it's the excellent play of Dallas' blue-liners that has really helped drive offense, simultaneously limiting the quality of offense the Golden Knights have managed to generate.

Vegas may have dominated the shot count in Game 3, but the Stars were able to match their opponents in terms of offensive quality. The Golden Knights held only slight edges in expected goals for and high-danger chances, once again failing to capitalize on those advantages. Stars goaltender Anton Khudobin was excellent, but Vegas' inability to finish has plagued the team throughout the playoffs. With Khudobin in a groove and the Stars finding remarkable consistency on offense, Dallas is too attractive to pass up at this price.

Pick: Stars (+140)

Tampa Bay Lightning (-145) @ New York Islanders (+125)

As is to be expected at this stage of the playoffs, nothing is coming easy for the Islanders. In their best game of the series Friday - which we predicted - they still needed a late goal to put the Lightning away and halve the series deficit. They also managed to stay out of the box, keeping Tampa's scorching hot power play at bay.

But this Lightning team has heaps of firepower, and the Islanders will find it extremely difficult to maintain that same intensity and consistency through another 60 minutes. The Lightning still held the edge in high-danger chances and expected goals at five-on-five in Game 3, with an off night from Andrei Vasilevskiy undoing another typically strong effort from the team in front of him. With a bounce-back performance from the Vezina Trophy finalist, the Lightning should move to within one win of the Stanley Cup Final.

Pick: Lightning (-145)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

We split Game 2 of the conference finals, losing with the Stars while easily cashing the under in the Lightning's 2-1 win over the Islanders.

Let's push for the 2-0 in a pair of pivotal Game 3s.

Vegas Golden Knights (-165) @ Dallas Stars (+145)

Until the narrative surrounding this Golden Knights team changes, we're well-positioned to take advantage. Vegas is still viewed as an end-to-end, high-scoring, fun hockey team that produces a ton of goals at both ends. That couldn't be farther from the truth. This is a very good team, not a fun one.

Note how high the Knights sit in the above chart. That's down to the fact that they don't allow many opportunities. They possess the puck very well, which gives their opponents precious little to work with. The Stars' focus in this series is to fight strength (Vegas' puck possession) with strength (Dallas' ability to suppress offense), which is going to lead to low-scoring games.

The Knights' last five games have all stayed under the total (just 14 combined goals), and the under has cashed in 10 of their 14 playoff contests. The Stars have been a bit more friendly to over bettors, but that's largely due to some atrocious goaltending against the Colorado Avalanche. The underlying numbers suggest unders should have been much more profitable in that series.

Pick: Under 5.5 (-125)

Tampa Bay Lightning (-160) @ New York Islanders (+140)

Despite allowing 10 goals, the Islanders have done well to limit the Lightning's dynamic offense in this series. New York was undone by a pair of miserable goaltending efforts in Game 1, but through two games, Tampa has managed a total of just 3.02 expected goals for at five-on-five while being held to fewer than 10 high-danger scoring chances in each of them. That's an impressive feat given the Lightning had been averaging just shy of 2.5 expected five-on-five goals per game in the playoffs coming into the series.

The Islanders have nothing to show for their defensive success, however, as Nikita Kucherov's goal with 8.8 seconds left put them into a 2-0 hole in the series. Losing in that fashion would break a lot of teams, but that's not in the DNA of a Barry Trotz club.

Instead of closing up shop and folding on the season, look for the Islanders to put in their gutsiest effort of the series Friday. They need an offensive spark, and they'll get it in the form of last change as the home team. Trotz knows as well as anyone how to exploit this competitive edge, with the Islanders 5-2 in home games in the bubble, controlling 56.2% of the expected goal share in those contests.

Pick: Islanders (+140)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.