NHL Saturday best bets: Big ‘dogs and 50-50 games

We're bringing the NHL weekly betting guide to life for a loaded Saturday on the ice. Let's start with a pair of matinee games as those north of the border celebrate "Hockey Day in Canada," even if most of the value is south of the border.

Ducks (+215) @ Sabres (-260)

It's never easy to start a day with a bet that'll probably lose, but that's the reality with an underdog this big. The Ducks are too big of an underdog. My numbers give Anaheim a 38% chance of winning in Buffalo.

The Sabres have run hot and cold this season, compiling a cold spell running eight contests and a six-game winning streak over the campaign. They've won just two of their last seven games, generating an average 50% high-danger chance rate at five-on-five over that time.

There's very little to like about the Ducks, as they sit last in the NHL in goal differential. They also own a league-worst expected goal (XG) share over their current 6-10 stretch. However, Anaheim is being priced as high as +240, which is an implied win probability of less than 30%. That makes the Ducks an ugly but long-term profitable play.

Pick: Ducks (play down to +200)

Lightning (+100) @ Flames (-120)

Later in the afternoon, we've got a more palatable underdog. I have the Lightning - available at +100 - as a slight favorite of 52.7% to win in a game lined like a coin flip.

After winning at a 62.5% rate before the Christmas break, Tampa Bay has since won nine of 12 games and are second in the NHL in both XG and high-danger chances shares at even strength.

Flames backers have been waiting for Jacob Markstrom's play to improve to his previous high level. His GSAx has dropped thanks to a minus-1.69 rate since the break. Meanwhile, Andrei Vasilevskiy is as steady as ever, with negligible difference in his home/road splits.

Pick: Lightning (play up to -105)

Wild (-105) @ Panthers (-115)

The Panthers' even-strength metrics are good enough to make them the sixth-best team in my ratings. But for much of the season, they've refused to win games - largely due to terrible goaltending from Spencer Knight and Sergei Bobrovsky. Florida demoted Knight, and Bobrovsky left Thursday's game with an injury.

If the Panthers can get replacement-level goaltending from either Bobrovsky or Alex Lyon on Saturday, they can continue a push that's seen them go 6-3 with a trio of excusable road losses in Dallas, Vegas, and Toronto. Now just four points out of a playoff spot, Florida should edge the Wild. Minnesota is just 6-6 since the Christmas break, with sub-50% even-strength metrics in that time.

Pick: Panthers (play up to -135)

Kings (-105) @ Predators (-115)

We don't like to rely on the finicky nature of goaltending in a one-game sample size. But in another 50-50-type game, we'll take Juuse Saros over whomever the Kings put in between the pipes.

The Predators netminder is second in GSAx this season, and his home splits are favorable with a 2.55 GAA and .921 save percentage. L.A. may have thought it found the answer to its horrendous goaltending in Pheonix Copley. However, his above-average December stats have turned into below-average January numbers.

Pick: Predators (-115)

Blackhawks (+215) @ Blues (-260)

Like our first game, we have another scary underdog that provides about 6% of value over a 100-game sample size. Unfortunately, they're only playing one contest Saturday night, but at odds longer than +200, the Blackhawks have to be the bet.

Since losing Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O'Reilly (and later Torey Krug), the Blues are 6-3, which makes no sense. The team's even-strength metrics have been among the worst in the NHL over that time. Chicago is also down near the bottom but has won five of its last six contests.

In a game between two bad teams whose recent results are over their heads, we'll take better than 2-to-1 odds on something closer to a coin flip than the market suggests.

Pick: Blackhawks (play down to +200)

Avalanche (-105) @ Kraken (-115)

Unlike the bets above, this is less a numbers play and more about the situation. The Avalanche are coming off a win in Vancouver last night and will be turning to backup goaltender Pavel Francouz for their final road game until after the All-Star break. While Alexandar Georgiev boasts a plus-7.55 GSAx this season, Francouz has played just moderately.

The Avs' even-strength metrics have been average this campaign. Maybe their power play can be the difference against the Kraken's weak link - the penalty kill. But Seattle has consistently found ways to beat better opponents since the calendar turned to 2023.

Pick: Kraken (-115)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Canucks’ Myers: ‘You can tell guys are down’ amid rumors of coaching change

Vancouver Canucks defenseman Tyler Myers acknowledged that rumors of head coach Bruce Boudreau's imminent firing impacted his team's performance for the first time during Friday's 4-1 loss to the Colorado Avalanche.

"It kinda seems like the mindset and the mood got to us tonight," Myers told reporters postgame. "You can tell guys are down. It's not easy times right now, a lot going on. Gotta find a way to stay positive and keep working."

Prior to becoming a Canuck, Myers suited up for the Buffalo Sabres and Winnipeg Jets. Despite his wealth of experience navigating high-pressure markets, Myers said the speculation surrounding Boudreau's job status over the past couple of weeks is "the most noise" he's experienced in his career.

"It's hard to know what to want right now," Myers said when asked if he wants the other shoe to drop so the team can move on. "Honestly, I haven't thought about that much at all, just trying to keep everyone in a good mood. ... We have a chance tomorrow night to get things moving back in a positive manner. That's what our main focus should be."

Not all the noise during Friday's clash was negative.

Fans at Rogers Arena regaled Boudreau with supportive chants of "Bruce, there it is." The veteran bench boss was choked up by the warm reception and tapped his heart.

Canucks faithful first started the chant when Boudreau took over behind the bench in December 2021. Vancouver rattled off seven straight wins to begin his tenure last season.

"Oh, it's unbelievable," Boudreau said of Friday's moving moment. "I've only been here a year, but it'll go down in my memory books out of the 48 years I've played and coached as the most incredible thing I've experienced on a personal level - other than winning championships, of course. It's very touching."

Boudreau noticed his team looked "a little disenchanted at times" against the reigning Stanley Cup champions. The shots were even at 29 apiece, but Colorado ultimately pulled away after scoring three times - including two power-play markers - in the second period.

It's been widely reported that Rick Tocchet is in line to replace Boudreau behind the bench. Boudreau was too emotional prior to Friday's contest to reflect on what it means to be an NHL coach, but he had more to say after the game.

"I'm really passionate about it," Boudreau said. "This is what I've done my whole life from the time I could walk until now. ... It's everything. When everything is finally over, you're gonna miss it like crazy, so those are the things you think about."

Vancouver will take on the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday at 10 p.m. ET.

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Caufield: Extension talks with Canadiens ‘in the back of my mind’

Cole Caufield admits he hasn't fully blocked out his contract negotiations.

"You try not to (think about it), but you really can't really get away from it," the Montreal Canadiens star told the media, including TSN, on Friday. "It's everywhere, you hear it a lot. But for me, (I'm) just trying to stay away from it. It's going to happen when it happens."

On Tuesday, it was reported the Canadiens and Caufield's agent, Pat Brisson, opened preliminary contract talks roughly a month ago. The 22-year-old winger confirmed as much Friday and acknowledged he's given it some thought.

"Obviously, I love being here. I love this team and this group of guys, so (I'll) just take it one step at a time, but for sure it's in the back of my mind," he said.

When asked whether the dollar amount or terms are sticking points in talks, Caufield downplayed the notion of either one being a reason there's no deal yet.

"Honestly, I don't really see it like that," he said. "It's probably just (about) the best fit for me. (Brisson) and the guys behind the scenes take care of those things, but I'm not too worried."

Caufield also said he's in no rush to finalize anything at the moment. The young sniper is a pending restricted free agent who's in the final year of his entry-level pact. He's due for a hefty raise from his current average annual value of approximately $881,000.

The American has racked up 26 goals and 10 assists over 46 games in 2022-23. He produced 23 tallies and 20 helpers over 67 contests last season, including 22 of those goals in the 37 games he played after the Canadiens replaced head coach Dominique Ducharme with Martin St. Louis.

Caufield is in his third season and second full campaign with the Habs, who drafted him 15th overall in 2019. He won the Hobey Baker Award as the NCAA's top men's hockey player in 2021.

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Pacioretty tears Achilles for 2nd time in 5 months

Max Pacioretty tore his Achilles tendon late in Thursday's win over the Minnesota Wild, the Carolina Hurricanes announced.

Pacioretty sustained the same injury in August, which delayed his Hurricanes debut until January.

Carolina acquired Pacioretty in a July trade with the Vegas Golden Knights. The 34-year-old scored three goals in the five contests in which he suited up with the Canes.

Pacioretty also departed Carolina's victory over the Columbus Blue Jackets on Jan. 12 with an injury that was unrelated to his first Achilles tear. He missed the next two contests with that ailment before returning Thursday.

The veteran forward has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, and especially recently. He was limited to 39 games last season and missed eight in 2021. Pacioretty was able to play all 71 tilts for Vegas in the abbreviated 2019-20 campaign, but he suited up for only 66 and 64 in the two prior seasons, respectively.

Pacioretty played his first 10 campaigns with the Montreal Canadiens, who drafted him 22nd overall in 2007. The Connecticut-born winger spent his next four with the Golden Knights before they shipped him to the Hurricanes.

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Emotional Boudreau: ‘I’d be a fool to say’ I don’t know about job uncertainty

Bruce Boudreau acknowledged the widespread speculation that the clock is winding down on his tenure as Vancouver Canucks head coach in an emotional media availability Friday.

"I mean, I'd be a fool to say that I don't know what's going on," the veteran bench boss said. "Like I said before, you come to work and you realize how great the game is."

A choked-up Boudreau said he'd "talk later" when asked what it means to him to be a head coach in the NHL and politely ended his scrum.

The Canucks take on the Colorado Avalanche on Friday and the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday. Both contests will take place at home.

Former NHL head coach and current TNT analyst Rick Tocchet has been linked to the Canucks as Boudreau's successor. During a wide-ranging press conference Monday, president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford confirmed that he had spoken to external coaching candidates but said the job still belonged to Boudreau.

"It's tough not to feel (the pressure)," Boudreau said. "Look, if you love it, you want to go do it. That's the way I shut it out, basically just realizing how much you care about the game and the players."

The 68-year-old raised some eyebrows across the league - and within his own household - when he wasn't on the ice for Friday's morning skate.

"I mean, I've got my wife phoning me, saying, 'You're not on the ice, is everything OK?' So (reporters) are getting it out all over the country."

He added, "I said (to my wife), 'I'm still here! I just don't go on the ice all the time.'"

Boudreau won 617 of his 1,085 games as a coach, tying Jacques Lemaire for the 20th most in NHL history. He's three victories short of catching up to Bryan Murray in 19th.

The Canucks are currently in sixth place of the Pacific Division with a record of 18-23-3.

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Sharks’ Karlsson talks trade deadline: ‘I want to win’

Though Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson reiterated that he and his family are happy in San Jose, he acknowledged that the potential of being moved to a contending team at the March 3 trade deadline is appealing.

"I will never sway from that: I want to win," he said during a recent appearance on the "Got Yer Back" podcast with Pierre LeBrun and Ryan Rishaug. "I think as you get older and you've been around for a longer time, you realize it's not as easy as it looks and you gotta hit it at the right time. Obviously if it does happen, then I hope that I do."

Karlsson, 32, is enjoying a resurgent campaign: He paces all skaters with 45 even-strength points and he tops all defensemen with 15 goals and 47 assists in 46 games while averaging over 25 minutes of ice time a night. If he keeps it up, the veteran can become the first rearguard to crack the 100-point mark since Brian Leetch in 1991-92.

His flashy numbers will garner interest from some teams bound for the postseason, but Karlsson carries a cap hit of $11.5 million through 2026-27, which is a hefty price tag. The ball is also firmly in Karlsson's court thanks to his no-movement clause, so he might not end up being traded at all.

If he stays put, Karlsson hopes the Sharks' road back to relevancy and competitiveness is a short one.

"We'll see where we're at, but I like the way it's going, I know that much," he said. "I know that the hires that they've made and the people that they've put in charge are doing a great job in moving in the right direction. ... I know that the future here is going to be really bright.

"I just hope that it's within my timeline. If it's not, that’s a different discussion and that's where we haven't really gotten yet, I don't think. It's also a tricky part because you never know; it could work out really fast or it could be a little bit of a longer thing. Sometimes that's a gamble you have to take."

The Swede isn't a stranger to being traded. After spending the first nine seasons of his career in Ottawa, the Senators sent him to the Sharks in 2018. Karlsson said he thinks he's more prepared for another potential move because of his experience.

"As long as you are somewhere where you believe in what they're doing and you're fully invested, I think that’s all you can ask for, is to have a legitimate chance and hope that it works out," Karlsson said. "So we'll see what happens for me.”

In November, Karlsson said he was "fully invested" in the Sharks as the rumor mill began to churn.

San Jose currently sits seventh in the Pacific Division with a record of 14-23-9.

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