Intrepid Flames bettors got a good price in their game against the Avalanche on Tuesday night - if they got to it fast enough. The Flames opened as short favorites, but by the time the puck dropped at the Saddledome, they were as high as -145 on the moneyline.

The reason for that was simple. Nathan MacKinnon was announced as a scratch that morning, which sent the Avalanche from +100 to +125. When we take those moneylines and convert them to implied win probabilities, the Avs go from 50% to win the game to 44.4%.

Instantly, we know how the market values one of the best players in the game - the Avalanche are deemed 5.6% less likely to win when MacKinnon is out. Whether you believe that's too high or low is up to you as a bettor, as you decide which side to back.

You might think 5.6% is an insult to a player of MacKinnon's stature. I might suggest that it's a compliment to the depth of Colorado, that missing a top-five player in the league would only hurt its chances of winning by less than 6%. Losing someone like MacKinnon for a game would matter more to a team that wasn't capable of making up for his absence.

The Avalanche were 12-3 (80%) on the moneyline in 15 games without MacKinnon before Tuesday night's contest in Calgary. Meanwhile, they are 34-17 with him - a 66% win rate. No one is suggesting that the Avalanche are better without MacKinnon. It's a small sample size that's causing high variance. However, looking at it this way allows us to understand that a 5% adjustment is appropriate.

As far as one game goes, the Avs overcame the absence for a tight 2-1 win. That shouldn't change how the market views Colorado, but we'll need to be on our toes about whether MacKinnon plays against the Sharks on Thursday. At least we know now what to expect from a line adjustment if he doesn't.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold. For bigger underdogs, you may decide on a higher cutoff like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager.

Thursday, March 31

Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices offered by your various sportsbooks. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something isn't accounted for in how we've rated teams - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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New Jersey was down 4-2 with two minutes left in the third period on Saturday when Jack Hughes corralled a pass deep in the Devils' end.

Skating backward, Hughes turned his body 180 degrees in one smooth motion to maintain his speed and keep control of the puck. The Devils had an extra attacker on the ice and the Washington Capitals were sitting back, an ideal scenario for a burner like Hughes.

As he zoomed through the neutral zone, Hughes looked similar to Connor McDavid - the master of skating. Then, as he went inside-out on veteran defenseman Dmitry Orlov and entered the offensive zone, he looked like Patrick Kane - the one-on-one genius.

Hughes ultimately failed to get a shot on goal, his attempt negated by a stick check. Ten seconds later, he slammed his own stick in frustration after a teammate opted to shoot the puck instead of passing to him while he was wide-open.

"He's only 20 years old, and I like that at a young age he's got that kind of bravado," said Ken Daneyko, the longtime Devils defenseman turned TV analyst for MSG Networks.

Daneyko added: "It's not a selfish act. It's him saying, 'When we need a big play, just know where I am. I will get it done.'"

New Jersey eventually scored with the extra attacker and Hughes picked up the primary assist. But that tally was all they could muster in the 4-3 road loss.

Those final two minutes against the Capitals are representative of Hughes' current place in the NHL universe: he's a tantalizing, highly productive, and super-competitive center in his third season playing for a team mired in a lengthy rebuild.

Since Dec. 29, Hughes has accumulated 19 goals and 27 assists for 46 points in 33 games. It's easily the best three months of his career, with a points per game rate of 1.39, which ranks ninth in the league over that stretch. This type of breakout had been a long time coming for the 2019 first overall draft pick.

What should we make of Hughes' rise to stardom? Below, we dive into some statistics and identify areas of his game where he's leveled up.

The statistical profile

Heading into the 2019 draft, scouts peppered reports with the word "elite" as Hughes set a new points record at the U.S. National Team Development Program. He was literally skating circles around junior- and college-level competition; he was can't miss material, the no-brainer pick for first overall.

Fast forward a year and pockets of the hockey community had grown dismissive of the pre-draft hype. Hughes was underwhelming as an NHL rookie - a hotshot kid who looked out of place in all three zones on the ice.

Still only 18 years old, he collected just 21 points in 61 games, a rate of 0.34 points per game. Patrik Stefan, who went first overall in 1999 but failed to live up to lofty expectations, posted 0.35 points per game as a 19-year-old rookie.

The Stefan comparison was an easy reference point for fans and pundits, although perhaps not entirely fair due to the management and personnel turnover in New Jersey. As Hughes told theScore recently: "I was just a young guy figuring it out."

It's safe to say Hughes has managed to reboot the narrative and recalibrate his ceiling. Thursday's Devils-Bruins game will be the 164th of his career - the equivalent of two full seasons - and the second 82-game block has been far more productive. This year, the confident, perhaps even cocky, playmaker-sniper hybrid is on pace for 32 goals and 40 assists in 62 games. (Hughes missed 17 games in the fall due to a dislocated shoulder, and another three in January after being placed in COVID-19 protocol.)

Only 11 players in the salary cap era have finished a season with a point per game or better before turning 21. At a 1.17 rate, Hughes currently ranks sixth, sandwiched between 2016-17 McDavid and 2009-10 Steven Stamkos.

Ty Smith, the young Devils defenseman who shares a New Jersey apartment with Hughes, believes his close friend is "going to be a 100-point guy" one day. Good luck crafting a compelling argument against that, as both the numbers and eye test indicate Hughes is one of the game's transition kings.

In fact, according to Sportlogiq data cited during a recent Devils-Rangers broadcast, nobody in the NHL generates more scoring chances off the rush per game than the fast and audacious Hughes. Nope, not even McDavid.

"He could be one-on-four. Most guys would just dump it in, but he tries to beat them," Smith said. "And he might do it."

The blue-liner added: "Sometimes he gets to a point where it kind of just looks like he's floating on the ice. It's just effortless, and he's flying around."

Focus on Hughes' busy feet here:

Hughes is the Devils' top facilitator at even strength and on the power play, where he helps quarterback the first unit from the right-point position.

This year, Hughes has skated at five-on-five with sharpshooter Yegor Sharangovich and either Jesper Bratt or Dawson Mercer. Hughes, Sharangovich, and Mercer - a rookie - have found their rhythm as a trio, leading to 12 goals for and 12 against despite unstable goaltending behind them.

Generally, when Hughes is on the ice, the Devils win the territorial battle. So far in 2021-22, the club has owned 52.8% of the shot attempts and 54.7% of the expected goals in Hughes' 711 five-on-five minutes, per Evolving Hockey.

As the HockeyViz heatmaps illustrate, Hughes' offensive-zone impact at even strength has intensified over his career. The Devils' offense has generated 14% more expected goals for per 60 minutes than the NHL average when he's on the ice this season, a significant jump over his rookie season.

Hughes' five-on-five minutes in 2019-20

Hughes' five-on-five minutes in 2021-22

Hughes has also excelled at avoiding the penalty box since Day 1 while putting the Devils on the power play fairly often.

As a rookie, Hughes finished with a plus-12 penalty differential (17 minors drawn, five minors taken). Last year, he was plus-16 (19-3). This year, he's making a strong case for the Lady Byng Trophy at a cool plus-15 (15-0).

"I feel like I have way more than 15? Is that it?" Hughes said. "There's nothing really to it. I just put my stick in the right place so I don't take penalties. And the other way, when you have the puck a lot, that's what's going to happen."

Areas of progress

Hughes was listed at 5-foot-10, 170 pounds ahead of the draft. He's now listed at 5-foot-11, 175. Despite growing an inch and (apparently) packing on only five pounds over three years of off-ice training, there's a noticeable difference in how Hughes handles himself along the boards and in the slot.

"He doesn't get pushed around as much as his first year, if at all," Devils assistant coach Alain Nasreddine said. "The thing with Jack is that he's so competitive. He doesn't shy away from the hard areas. He'll go into traffic, go into one-on-one battles, and every time he wants to get the puck back."

That "inner drive," as Daneyko calls it, has helped Hughes elevate his defensive game. To be competent defensively, awareness and timing are key.

"Look, he's not going to win a Selke Trophy because you want him to do what he does best and create offense," Daneyko said. "But he's gotten smarter. In his own zone, he's one of the most effective guys at stealing pucks."

Of course, it always comes back to skating with Hughes.

Dynamic, crossover-heavy skating has been his bread and butter for a decade, and the added muscle has made him an even better skater. Smith, for one, thinks Hughes' already elite skating is "at another level" right now.

It's a hard claim to confirm, but there's enough evidence to suggest Hughes is stronger on his skates, which in turn allows him to maintain a high rate of speed while fighting through stick and body checks.

Below is a sequence that seems innocuous but is actually instructive. Pay attention to how Hughes reacts to the defenseman trying to bump him:

Nick Quinn of Power Edge Pro, a skating and skills company with dozens of NHL clients, has worked with Hughes for seven years. He notes Hughes' ability to "give off false information" - or deceive opponents - has improved.

"That's what's made Jack so effective as he's gotten comfortable in the NHL," Quinn said. "He's not the biggest guy, but he puts defenders in bad positions when he moves pucks into open space and he moves his feet at the same time. Not many players can do that on a regular basis."

Based on the eight-year, $64-million contract extension Hughes inked in November - before he had truly broken out - the Devils weren't fretting the first two-plus seasons of his career. The team was banking on his awful shooting percentage (5.7% and 7.7% in his first two seasons, respectively) normalizing over time. They projected the franchise cornerstone would grow into an all-world passer and shooter. So far, so good in 2021-22 - 24 goals scored on 14.8% shooting.

"It's more accurate. It's got more velocity. He gets it off quicker," Daneyko said of Hughes' shot. Nasreddine believes "the game has slowed down for him - even though he plays at a high pace, extremely high pace."

If the game is slowing down for a burner like Hughes, look out.

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).

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It was a mixed bag on the ice Tuesday. We went 1-2 with sides and 2-1 with player props. We'll aim for a winning night as we look at the best ways to approach Wednesday's six-game slate.

Rangers (-155) @ Red Wings (+130)

The Detroit Red Wings are not a good team. I won't try and make you believe otherwise. But they're also not as bad as their recent stretch - headlined by an 11-2 loss - would make you believe.

Take their last 10 games, for example. The Red Wings have controlled approximately 45% of the expected goals, generating 27.51 and allowing 32.96. That's an expected net of -5.45 goals, a little more than half a puck per contest. In actuality, the Red Wings were outscored 49-26 in that span; a -23 net.

The number of goals for aligns almost exactly with what they should've scored based on the chances they've created. Their goaltenders have conceded more than 16 goals above expected, though.

Thomas Greiss is past his best-before date, while Alex Nedeljkovic's rookie season in Carolina no doubt fooled people into believing he was better than he is. Even so, it's reasonable to suggest the goalies aren't going to give the Red Wings an .864 save percentage over their next 10 games. There should be at least some level of positive regression.

Detroit's offense should be able to contribute meaningfully in this game as well. The New York Rangers aren't great at five-on-five, their penalty kill has been conceding a lot, and Igor Shesterkin likely won't be there to mask their problems Wednesday. He hasn't started on consecutive nights all season, so it's fair to assume Alexandar Georgiev will get the nod.

Georgiev has his moments, but the overall body of work is quite poor. He owns an .894 save percentage and, among those with 20-plus starts, ranks bottom-10 in goals saved above expectation per 60.

I like the Red Wings to show real pushback following an embarrassing defeat. With Georgiev in goal and a fatigued Rangers team in town, there is value in backing Detroit outright.

Bet: Red Wings (+130)

Sharks (-150) @ Coyotes (+125)

The San Jose Sharks are a bad team in bad form. At five-on-five, they've controlled just 41.48% of the shot attempts and a hair under 44% of the expected goals over the last 10 games. Not good; and yet they are a tier - or two - above the putrid Arizona Coyotes.

Arizona has posted unfathomably bad numbers of late. The Coyotes' share of the shot attempts sits at just over 36%, while their xG share sits at 32%. Yikes.

A simpler way of putting that: for every xG they generate, they allow two. Not that a team like the Tampa Bay Lightning would ever post such numbers, but those kinds of differentials would be disastrous for a side with their level of shooting talent and goaltending. For Arizona? It's a death sentence.

They don't have enough finishing in their lineup to outperform expectations to the extent necessary to win games. They also don't have the goaltending; especially under these circumstances. Their options are Karel Vejmelka for the third time in four nights or Josef Korenar, an .853 goaltender in the AHL this season.

Neither should be able to match what the Sharks get from James Reimer, who has quietly enjoyed a solid campaign. He owns a .917 save percentage and sits just one spot below Jake Oettinger in GSAE per start.

As poorly as the Sharks are playing, I see edges across the board. Back them to take care of business inside 60.

Bet: Sharks in regulation (+102)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Taylor Hall won't miss any games for his actions toward Ilya Lyubushkin on Tuesday night.

The Boston Bruins forward was fined $5,000 for roughing the Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman late in the second period of Toronto's 6-4 win.

Hall sucker-punched Lyubushkin from behind after the Russian blue-liner hit him near the boards. The officials handed Hall a minor penalty.

Lyubushkin left the game, and the Leafs later ruled him out for the remainder of the contest as a precaution alongside fellow rearguard Justin Holl.

Hall has been suspended once in his 12-year career. He sat out two games while playing for the Edmonton Oilers in February 2013 for kneeing then-Minnesota Wild winger Cal Clutterbuck. He was also fined in January 2018 as a member of the New Jersey Devils for boarding Buffalo Sabres forward Kyle Okposo.

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The Minnesota Wild and defenseman Alex Goligoski have agreed to a two-year extension carrying an average annual value of $2 million, the team announced Wednesday.

Goligoski signed a one-year, $5-million contract with the Wild as an unrestricted free agent this past offseason.

The 36-year-old veteran has tallied two goals and 26 assists in 58 games this campaign while averaging 19 minutes per contest. He's also posted sterling underlying numbers - specifically on the offensive end:

The Goligoski signing leaves the Wild with about $8 million in projected cap space for 2022-23, according to CapFriendly. They have two notable restricted free agents in sniper Kevin Fiala and deadline acquisition Jake Middleton. Fellow deadline pickup Marc-Andre Fleury is the only major pending UFA left.

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Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Petr Mrazek left Tuesday's game against the Boston Bruins in the first period with a groin injury and won't return, the team announced.

Erik Kallgren took over in goal for the key Atlantic Division clash.

Mrazek has already missed time twice this season due to groin injuries.

The 30-year-old entered the game with a 12-6 record and an .890 save percentage.

Mrazek signed a three-year contract with the Maple Leafs this past offseason. He was waived March 20 but went unclaimed, and he's since won back-to-back starts.

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Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes gave interim head coach Martin St. Louis a significant vote of confidence Tuesday.

"I'd like to see him part of the Montreal Canadiens organization for the long term and remove the interim tag, if that's the question you're asking," Hughes told TSN from this week's GM meetings.

"In terms of the success or the impact that he's had, I expected him to have an impact, no question about it. Probably not as significant as he has in such a short period of time. But I said at the beginning, I'm not one to bet against Marty St. Louis, and those that have, have generally lost. He's a pretty special guy, and he's proven to be a pretty special coach."

St. Louis replaced Dominique Ducharme behind the bench on Feb. 9, marking his first NHL coaching gig. Since the Hall of Fame player took over, the Canadiens are 10-7-4 after a dreadful 8-30-7 start with Ducharme at the helm.

A notable turnaround in production for Montreal's young core forwards followed the coaching change: Cole Caufield has registered 25 points in 21 games, while Nick Suzuki has 22.

The Canadiens were recently eliminated from playoff contention and sit 31st overall in the league standings with 47 points.

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Ottawa Senators general manager Pierre Dorion vowed to complete the plan he and the late Eugene Melnyk envisioned before the team owner's death Monday.

"He meant a lot to a lot of people; our players, coaching staff, and obviously our management group," an emotional Dorion told the media, including TSN, at the NHL GM meetings Tuesday.

Dorion continued: "He'll be missed dearly. We started something together, and we're going to finish it. He'll be so proud of us, and he'll be looking down on us."

Melnyk died Monday at the age of 62. He bought the Senators in 2003, helping them escape bankruptcy. Ottawa named Dorion GM in April 2016. The 49-year-old had spent nine years with the club before his promotion, including two-plus campaigns as an assistant GM.

Dorion added Tuesday that he believes the Senators will win the Stanley Cup someday, and Melnyk's lasting legacy is he would be "a big part of that, if not the biggest."

Ottawa head coach D.J. Smith also gave a statement about Melnyk.

"It's very unfortunate for the Senators organization and for the city of Ottawa," Smith said. "Condolences to (Melnyk's daughters) Anna and Olivia. Ultimately, that's what's most important at this time."

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