MacKinnon won't play due to an upper-body injury, the Avalanche announced, according to The Athletic's Peter Baugh. MacKinnon flew back to Denver to be re-evaluated, and head coach Jared Bednar said concern is "high," per the Denver Post's Mike Chambers.
It's unclear when and how the superstar center got hurt. MacKinnon logged nearly 20 minutes of ice time Sunday in an overtime loss to the Minnesota Wild. He came on for eight shifts in the third period, though his final one in the last minute of regulation was only eight seconds long. He didn't play in overtime, but Minnesota won 15 seconds into the extra frame.
The 26-year-old fought Wild defenseman Matt Dumba earlier in the third period, and Bednar said Tuesday it's possible MacKinnon's injury was a result of that bout, according to Baugh.
MacKinnon has missed 15 contests this season due to injuries and COVID-19, which he contracted at the beginning of the season. He was forced to forgo the All-Star Game and four regular-season tilts after sustaining a concussion and a facial fracture.
The Nova Scotia-born forward has 22 goals and 48 assists across 51 games in 2021-22.
Colorado is also without one of MacKinnon's usual linemates, Gabriel Landeskog. The Avalanche captain hasn't played since March 10 because of a knee injury. He underwent surgery four days later and is expected to return for the playoffs.
The Avalanche are currently on a two-game road trip and will return to Denver to host the San Jose Sharks on Thursday.
You don't need an elaborate study to understand that traveling on a back-to-back impacts a team's win probability in the second game. All you need is a semi-reliable rating on a team and oddsmakers will tell you how much they adjust for the scheduling spot.
In this space, a 5% downgrade in win probability is how we adjust for a team playing on the second night of a back-to-back with travel. Whether that manifests itself on a game-to-game basis is something of an unanswerable question. Players and coaches might mention its effect after a loss, but when they win a game in that same spot, there's no need for excuses.
How does travel affect a game? A logical case can be made that it's hard to get the legs going at the beginning, putting a team at a disadvantage early. It's equally logical to argue that it's the third period when players might find themselves more tired than usual.
That brings us to the Sabres-Blackhawks game in Chicago on Monday night. Based on the example from Monday's guide, Chicago was worth a bet at -163 or shorter as we gave it a 63% chance to beat Buffalo, which played in New York on Sunday.
The consensus moneyline for the Blackhawks was -150, which triggered a bet, and with a 4-0 Hawks lead early in the second period, that bet seemed safe. The Sabres could have easily chalked it up as a schedule loss. Instead, they pulled off arguably the biggest comeback of the entire season by scoring with just shy of 11 seconds left for a 6-5 win.
Since the Sabres are usually undervalued, their +130 price on the moneyline suggests it didn't account for a scheduling disadvantage. Buffalo played two previous back-to-backs in March with polar opposite results - a 1-0 win at red-hot Calgary, and a 6-1 loss to Florida on a home back-to-back.
Does the Sabres' youth make them more capable than the average team of overcoming the scheduling disadvantage? Or are the Blackhawks just that incapable? Those are some of the questions that Chicago backers never would have thought to ask 22 minutes into Monday night's game.
This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.
How to use the guide
What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold. For bigger underdogs, you may decide on a higher cutoff like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager.
Wednesday, March 30
GAME
WIN PROB. (%)
TRUE ML
PRICE TO BET
WPG@BUF
50.2/49.8
-101/+101
WPG +110/BUF +111
NYR@DET
48/52
+108/-108
NYR +120/DET +102
LAK@EDM
42.5/57.5
+135/-135
LAK +160/EDM -130
VGK@SEA
52.2/47.8
-109/+109
VGK +101/SEA +121
STL@VAN
47.2/52.8
+112/-112
STL +132/VAN -108
SJS@ARI
48.6/51.4
+106/-106
SJS +117/ARI +104
Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices offered by your various sportsbooks. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something isn't accounted for in how we've rated teams - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.
After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
The next World Cup of Hockey will not feature any untraditional squads.
Team North America and Team Europe won't be part of the planned tournament for 2024, NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly said Tuesday, according to TSN's Pierre LeBrun.
The forthcoming event will return to its previous format, which includes only teams representing specific countries.
The 2016 tourney was made up of eight teams including the North America and Europe sides. The former was made up of Canadian and American players who were 23 years old and under. The latter comprised players from European countries not including Czechia (then known as the Czech Republic), Finland, Russia, and Sweden, all of which had their own entries in the event.
Team Europe - led by Anze Kopitar and Leon Draisaitl along with head coach Ralph Krueger - made an improbable run to the final before Canada claimed the title in two games during the best-of-three championship round.
The NHL initially mulled having another World Cup of Hockey in February 2021 but called off that plan in December 2019.
It was reported in February of this year that the NHL and NHLPA had already met to start planning an event for the same month in 2024.
The next World Cup of Hockey would be the fourth edition after 1996, 2004, and 2016. The United States won the original tourney, and Canada won the other two.
The NHL informed its general managers that the salary cap will increase by $1 million to a total of $82.5 million beginning next season, reports TSN's Pierre LeBrun.
The league has operated with a cap ceiling of $81.5 million since 2019-20.
This would be the first increase and first change to the NHL's salary cap since it rose by $2 million for that same campaign.
When the league and the NHLPA renegotiated the CBA in June 2020, it was reported that part of the agreement called for the cap to remain close to $81.5 million for three seasons. Ultimately, it didn't fluctuate from that figure at all.
The cap ceiling rose every season from 2013-14 until the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 campaign.
Here's a look at the changes since the league reinstituted the cap in 2005-06:
The NHL first installed a salary cap during the Great Depression, when teams were allowed to spend a maximum of $62,500 on rosters and $7,000 per player.
"He's injured. I don't know how bad, but he's definitely going to be out," head coach Rod Brind'Amour said, according to NHL.com's Tom Gulitti.
Brind'Amour added: "I've talked to him. He's not doing great. I don't know the extent, but it's not good."
Several Hurricanes players also shared their displeasure with the hit.
"For me that's just so stupid. … It's a 6-1 game, one second left, and he tries to be a hero or whatever," forward Martin Necas said, according to Stephen Whyno of The Associated Press. "I don't know. I have no words for that. It's just ridiculous."
"It is with great sadness that the family of Eugene Melnyk and the Ottawa Senators hockey organization announce his passing on March 28, 2022, after an illness he faced with determination and courage," the team's statement read.
Melnyk purchased the Senators in 2003 when they faced bankruptcy. The team earned nine playoff berths during his tenure, reaching the Stanley Cup Final in 2007.
"The National Hockey League mourns the passing of Ottawa Senators owner Eugene Melnyk," commissioner Gary Bettman said in a statement.
"The words 'passion' and 'commitment' define the man who has owned the Ottawa Senators since 2003. Whether it was in the boardroom with his fellow governors, at the rink with his beloved Senators, or in the community with his philanthropy, he cared deeply about the game, about his team, and about bettering the lives of those in need - particularly underserved children, organ donation, and, most recently, with his commitment to his parents' home country of Ukraine."
Senators captain Brady Tkachuk offered his condolences.
"Mr. Melnyk provided me, my teammates, and many Sens players who came before us with an opportunity to live out our dream. The Ottawa community will miss you greatly. Condolences to your family," Tkachuk wrote in a tweet.
"He barely ever gets knocked down, and he doesn't really complain," Dubas said Monday, according to The Canadian Press. "He was obviously upset because we lost the game (against the Arizona Coyotes) on a play that was a missed call. But he's not one that complains. He just goes and does his thing and rolls.
"We wish the way that he played would draw more, but they don't deem that it does."
Dubas is referring to Matthews' outburst toward the referees March 10 after a missed call in overtime directly preceded the Coyotes' winner.
Matthews has drawn only nine penalties this season, which puts him 304th among all skaters. Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid leads the league with 44 calls.
Dubas said the state of the league's officiating was a main topic of discussion during the first day of this week's GM meetings in Florida but gave referees credit for the difficulty of their job.
"It's not perfect and they recognize that," Dubas said. "That's something that (NHL director of officiating) Stephen (Walkom) had said that was very clear. The game goes so fast. We're not perfect in management, coaching, playing."
Dubas added: "No one's ever happy with it. You're only unhappy with it. When you win the game and everything has gone fairly well, you don't really credit officiating, you credit your team. When things go poorly - and we've had some moments like that this year - it's easy to look at the officiating and say it has gotta be on them."
The Maple Leafs have drawn the fewest penalties in the league this season with 205. They've made the most of their opportunities, though, owning the NHL's best power-play conversion rate at 29.2%.
The NHL is changing the location of its annual awards show.
The festivities will take place on either the night before Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final or on the off-day between Games 3 and 4 in the city hosting those tilts, reports Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman.
It'll reportedly be a one-hour event and presumably be in-person, unlike the last two years when the league held it remotely due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The NHL has held the awards show in Las Vegas since 2009, using various hotels and casinos to host the gala. The league moved it to Vegas from Toronto that same year.